Sir John Curtice: The dramatic shifts behind a Labour landslide

Labour are heading in the direction of a landslide victory, successful beforehand secure Tory seats throughout the nation. Their good points are largely on the again of a dramatic decline of 21 factors in Conservative assist.

Labour’s personal vote is anticipated to be up by slightly below two factors throughout the nation. That is totally on account of a 19 level improve in assist in Scotland.

In Wales, the social gathering’s vote has really fallen again by 4 factors, whereas in England the social gathering’s vote is essentially unchanged from 2019.

On the premise of the outcomes declared thus far, it’s doable that Labour will safe its landslide on a decrease share of the vote than any of Tony Blair’s victories, together with the 36% the social gathering received in 2005. That itself was hitherto the bottom share of the vote received by a majority single social gathering authorities.

In some ways, this appears extra like an election the Conservatives have misplaced than one Labour have received.

In line with present forecasts, this would be the worst Conservative consequence by way of seat numbers in historical past. It’ll even be the best Lib Dem tally since 1923.

A number of the seats the Conservatives have misplaced tonight are ones that the social gathering has not misplaced in any post-war British election. These embody:

• Aldershot – Conservative since 1918
• Altringham – 1924
• Chichester – 1924
• Dorking – 1885
• Tunbridge Wells – 1931

A number of the Tory losses tonight are thus simply as spectacular as Labour’s “crimson wall” losses in 2019.

Conservative assist fell most closely in seats they have been attempting to defend. That is primarily the results of a big improve in Reform’s assist, particularly in locations the place there was a excessive Go away vote in 2016.

In the meantime, the Conservatives’ difficulties have been compounded by the very fact Labour’s vote has elevated by 5 factors in seats the place the social gathering began second to the Conservatives, much better than elsewhere (outdoors of Scotland).

In the meantime, the Lib Dems have elevated their vote by seven factors the place they began second to the Conservatives, when throughout the nation their vote has flatlined.

Reform themselves have discovered it tough to transform votes into seats and the social gathering is presently anticipated to win not more than 4 seats, together with Nigel Farage in Clacton.

The SNP have suffered a critical drubbing. Their share of the vote is down 16 factors, whereas Labour’s is up by 20 in Scotland. It now appears as if the SNP will win not more than eight seats by the tip of the evening.

The Greens have recorded their finest normal election efficiency but, and can probably win 7% of the vote. Nonetheless, they could do not more than double the one seat they already had.

Notably, turnout is nicely down in comparison with latest elections. In the intervening time, it appears as if it might fall to 60%, which might be the bottom since 2001. It has been falling most in seats the place Labour are strongest.

Labour have carried out notably badly in seats with giant numbers of Muslim voters. The social gathering’s vote is down on common by 10 factors in seats the place greater than 10% of the inhabitants determine as Muslim. Their losses have usually been inflicted by the Greens and unbiased candidates, the latter usually campaigning on pro-Gaza platforms.

This sample has price the social gathering each Leicester East to the Conservatives and Leicester South to an unbiased candidate. Lastly, in a exceptional particular person efficiency, Jeremy Corbyn retained his Islington North seat as an unbiased.