![[original_title]](https://rawnews.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/1725286191_i-1024x576.jpeg)
My ordinary job is to write down about NFL soccer by way of chances. However immediately is my annual departure from that, as we’re specializing in our single simulation of the 2024 NFL season. Pure outcomes, complete certainty.
To type its projections of the season, ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) simulates the complete slate of video games 20,000 occasions. However on this train, we picked out solely one of these simulations to symbolize a single doable situation for a way issues might unfold. In spite of everything, life is a single sim. And immediately, that is FPI simulation No. 515.
Listed here are the most important storylines from that one simulation, together with shock playoff groups, draft order drama, tight division races and a Super Bowl champion. We utilized a bit inventive license to the main points, however the outcomes are all straight from the numbers. Let’s dive into simulation No. 515.
See FPI’s full projections of the season
The Payments and Falcons fall flat
It turned out the Buffalo Bills wanted a No. 1 receiver in any case. Underneath offensive coordinator Joe Brady, Buffalo took a extra run-heavy method on this season simulation, but it surely resulted within the offense taking a step again and quarterback Josh Allen having his worst statistical season for the reason that early components of his profession. The protection could not make up the hole, both, leading to a disastrous 7-10 playoff-less season for a workforce that was thought-about a Tremendous Bowl contender coming into the season.
The Atlanta Falcons‘ all-in (effectively, all-in-ish) wager on the 2024 season went south early, as they opened the season 2-4. Kirk Cousins struggled in his age-36 season whereas getting back from an Achilles injury, and the offense stumbled exhausting. Atlanta managed a 6-11 file regardless of being in a weak NFC South. This season did have one vibrant spot for Atlanta, although, because it served as a cleaner handoff than anticipated to the Michael Penix Jr. period.
Williams leads the Bears to the postseason
The “Laborious Knocks” hype was actual — rookie quarterback Caleb Williams instantly introduced electrical energy to the Chicago Bears‘ offense. Williams completed this season as a top-five fantasy quarterback, and vast receiver DJ Moore exceeded 1,300 receiving yards, serving to make up for a protection that could not carry over the momentum it needed to finish the 2023 season. This resulted in high-scoring, back-and-forth affairs that not solely added to Williams’ lore but additionally generated a 10-7 file that allowed Chicago to sneak into the playoffs because the No. 7 seed within the NFC.
The Bears weren’t a one-and-done workforce, both. They upset the No. 2-seeded Philadelphia Eagles 23-17 within the wild-card spherical. Positive, the workforce misplaced to the Detroit Lions 27-16 within the divisional spherical on this simulation, however Chicago took an ideal first step ahead to set the desk for 2025 and past. Williams is right here, and the Bears are again.
Eagles win the NFC East after a late-season surge
Getting into Week 13, the Philadelphia Eagles sat at 6-6, two video games behind the Dallas Cowboys and unsure of a playoff berth. However in a whole distinction to 2023, Philadelphia discovered itself down the stretch, as Kellen Moore and Vic Fangio’s items lastly coalesced. The Eagles went on a five-game successful streak to finish the season. That included an important 22-10 win in Week 17 during which their go rush devastated quarterback Dak Prescott and the Cowboys’ passing assault to grab the NFC East title away from Dallas by way of head-to-head tiebreaker.
However the momentum did not carry over into the postseason. Although they entered because the No. 2 seed, the Eagles noticed their season finish abruptly by the hands of Williams and the Bears, who pulled off a shocking upset. Dallas did not fare any higher, because the Cowboys misplaced in a playoff blowout for the second straight season, falling 37-14 to the San Francisco 49ers.
The Bengals seize the AFC North from the Ravens
Contemporary off Lamar Jackson‘s MVP marketing campaign in 2023, the Baltimore Ravens seemed to be the category of a robust AFC North coming into 2024. However Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow reminded the NFL why he is thought-about one of many league’s greatest quarterbacks.
Burrow led a voracious passing assault that noticed vast receiver Ja’Marr Chase surpass 1,500 yards and Tee Higgins add one other 1,100. Burrow completed within the prime 5 in QBR for the primary time, and the Bengals took the division at 11-6 on a tiebreaker over Baltimore by way of a greater division file (they cut up their head-to-head matchups).
Every workforce obtained a playoff win, too, with the Bengals caring for the Jacksonville Jaguars 23-19 within the wild-card spherical, whereas the Ravens went on the street to defeat the damaging Houston Texans 27-24. However a 3rd assembly between the 2 AFC North rivals was not within the playing cards, as they had been each vanquished within the divisional spherical on this simulation.
The Bucs do it once more
There was a sense that the 2023 Tampa Bay Buccaneers had been a mirage, as they barely received the NFC South with a 9-8 file after which lost offensive coordinator Dave Canales (who had resuscitated quarterback Baker Mayfield‘s profession) within the offseason. However Mayfield maintained his robust play, ending within the prime half of the league in QBR and supporting but one other 1,000-yard season from vast receiver Mike Evans. The Bucs ran away with the division at 10-7, with the New Orleans Saints because the next-closest workforce at 7-10.
It did not finish there, because the Buccaneers pulled off a 26-20 dwelling upset over the Green Bay Packers to advance to the divisional spherical for the second straight season. They ended up falling to the 49ers 30-16, however 2024 confirmed that the success of the Bucs’ present core has been no fluke.
1:32
Why McAfee thinks the Buccaneers might be ‘superior’ in NFC South
Pat McAfee appears to be like on the NFL division odds this season and factors out how the Buccaneers can stand out within the NFC South.
The Vikings stumble to the No. 1 general choose
There was hope, again within the halcyon days of September, that quarterback Sam Darnold would lastly determine it out after spending the 2023 season with Kyle Shanahan earlier than enjoying in Kevin O’Connell’s scheme in 2024. How naïve we had been. Darnold didn’t, in truth, determine it out. The Minnesota Vikings‘ offense crumbled whereas the remainder of the league got here up with changes to defensive coordinator Brian Flores’ relentless blitzes.
The end result? A paltry four-win season. However with the shedding got here hope within the type of the No. 1 general choose. With their quarterback already in hand — J.J. McCarthy is the QB of the longer term right here, regardless of his right meniscus tear — the Vikings enter the offseason in place to deal the No. 1 choose to a QB-needy workforce for a collection of choices that can bolster the roster for a right away turnaround. The current is bleak in Minnesota, however the future is vibrant.
The Washington Commanders — who additionally won’t be in the quarterback market — have the No. 2 choose. The Carolina Panthers, who could be prepared to maneuver on from quarterback Bryce Young after ending 5-12, have the No. 3 choice and are a contender to commerce as much as the No. 1 spot.
Rodgers and powerful protection lead the Jets to the AFC Championship Recreation
The brilliant future that the New York Jets imagined, with Aaron Rodgers sporting inexperienced and white and beginning in a playoff sport at MetLife Stadium? Sure, it occurred right here — twice.
The indicators had been robust proper from the start. After dropping a detailed sport to the 49ers in Week 1 on “Monday Night time Soccer,” the Jets rattled off 4 consecutive victories. Whereas Rodgers did not rise to an MVP stage, he performed effectively, ending within the prime eight of QBR. But it surely was the league’s greatest protection that drove the Jets’ success. Cornerback Sauce Gardner shut down opposing wideouts en path to successful Defensive Participant of the 12 months, and defensive deal with Quinnen Williams disrupted each opponent’s offensive line. Because of their robust play — and aided by Buffalo’s collapse — the Jets received the AFC East with ease at 12-5, with the Miami Dolphins ending second at 9-8.
Because the No. 2 seed, the Jets dispatched the Dolphins 23-14 within the wild-card spherical, then stifled the Burrow-led Bengals with a dominating 27-9 victory within the divisional playoffs. That put Jets within the AFC Championship Recreation!
1:13
Greeny satisfied the Jets are the largest menace to the Chiefs
Jeff Darlington is shocked by Mike Greenberg’s suggestion that Aaron Rodgers and the Jets are the largest menace to the Kansas Metropolis Chiefs within the AFC.
This obtained the usually despondent Jets fan base to start believing that this might … be … the … yr. Till the workforce met Patrick Mahomes within the convention title sport. Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs silenced the Jets, with the Kansas Metropolis passing assault overwhelming New York’s top-ranked protection. The Jets fell 31-23, and the Chiefs returned to the Tremendous Bowl searching for a historic three-peat.
The 49ers fail to achieve the Tremendous Bowl
The 49ers had been cruising for a lot of the season, coming into the ultimate stretch with a 10-3 file. However they slumped at that time, shedding 4 in a row to make the NFC West race fascinating. Ultimately, the 49ers did sufficient to make the playoffs at 10-7, successful the division by one sport over the Los Angeles Rams and Seattle Seahawks, but it surely was touch-and-go up till the top.
However the Niners rediscovered their type within the playoffs and had been hitting on all cylinders, demolishing the Cowboys within the wild-card spherical and caring for the Buccaneers within the divisional playoffs. This arrange a rematch with the Detroit Lions within the NFC Championship Recreation.
However this time, the Lions had been at dwelling and able to take benefit. Detroit’s improved protection pressured a Brock Purdy interception on the opening drive, and whereas the 49ers fought again, the Lions held them at arm’s size the remainder of the sport to prevail 30-24 and attain their first Tremendous Bowl.
Full standings and playoff outcomes
Listed here are the ultimate regular-season standings based mostly on our one simulation, with three NFC North groups ending with double-digit wins and reaching the playoffs.
And right here is how the primary three rounds of the postseason performed out earlier than the Tremendous Bowl.
Wild-card spherical:
(AFC) No. 2 Jets defeated No. 7 Dolphins 23-14
(AFC) No. 3 Bengals defeated No. 6 Jaguars 23-19
(AFC) No. 5 Ravens defeated No. 4 Texans 27-24
(NFC) No. 7 Bears defeated No. 2 Eagles 23-17
(NFC) No. 3 49ers defeated No. 6 Cowboys 37-14
(NFC) No. 4 Buccaneers defeated No. 5 Packers 26-20
Divisional spherical:
(AFC) No. 1 Chiefs defeated No. 5 Ravens 27-24
(AFC) No. 2 Jets defeated No. 3 Bengals 27-9
(NFC) No. 1 Lions defeated No. 7 Bears 27-16
(NFC) No. 3 49ers defeated No. 4 Buccaneers 30-16
Convention championships:
(AFC) No. 1 Chiefs defeated No. 1 Jets 31-23
(NFC) No. 1 Lions defeated No. 3 49ers 30-24
The Lions beat the Chiefs to win Tremendous Bowl LIX
After shedding within the NFC Championship Recreation final season, Lions coach Dan Campbell said, “Look, I advised these guys, this may occasionally have been our solely shot. Do I feel that? No. Do I imagine that? No. Nevertheless, I understand how exhausting it’s to get right here. I am well-aware. It may be twice as exhausting to get again up to now subsequent yr than it was this yr.”
Twice as exhausting or not, Campbell and the Lions did it. Quarterback Jared Goff proved he was “good enough for f—ing Detroit,” persevering with the relentless effectivity that he confirmed in offensive coordinator Ben Johnson’s system in 2023 by ending within the prime three in QBR. Cornerback Carlton Davis III bounced again to be a crucial a part of the Lions’ secondary, and defensive finish Aidan Hutchinson took one other step towards stardom, recording 14 sacks and forcing 4 fumbles.
The mixture led the Lions to 13 wins and the highest seed within the NFC. Detroit took care of upstart Chicago within the divisional spherical earlier than settling the rating within the NFC title sport with San Francisco to advance to New Orleans and Tremendous Bowl LIX.
However the Chiefs’ quest for a three-peat stood within the Lions’ means. The additions of vast receivers Xavier Worthy and Marquise Brown remodeled the Chiefs’ offense into what it had been earlier in Mahomes’ profession, with the speedy wideouts permitting Mahomes to throw downfield. Kansas Metropolis additionally received 13 video games and earned a No. 1 seed. And although Baltimore gave them hassle, the Chiefs obtained previous the Ravens 27-24 within the divisional spherical earlier than their offense bested the Jets’ unbelievable protection within the AFC Championship Recreation. The three-peat — the one which Mahomes started talking about almost immediately after successful the Tremendous Bowl final season — was proper there, as Kansas Metropolis grew to become the primary back-to-back champion to get to the Tremendous Bowl the next season.
2:10
Stephen A. curious whether or not Lions can reside as much as lofty expectations
Stephen A. Smith picks the Lions to win the NFC North however questions whether or not the workforce can win a Tremendous Bowl.
Tremendous Bowl LIX was an offensive showcase. The Chiefs’ offense had early management and staked Kansas Metropolis to a 28-14 lead halfway by the fourth quarter. However though cornerback Trent McDuffie held Lions star receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown in verify, working again Jahmyr Gibbs recorded 80 yards and two touchdowns receiving.
After the second of Gibbs’ touchdowns lower Kansas Metropolis’s result in eight factors, Campbell went for 2 and transformed, reducing the deficit to 6. That arrange the sport’s unlikely hero; vast receiver Kalif Raymond scored on an 8-yard landing go from Goff with three minutes left to play, giving the Lions a 29-28 lead.
For as soon as, the storybook end did not materialize for Mahomes. After a fast first down, the Chiefs discovered themselves with a fourth-and-10 on their very own 39-yard line. Mahomes fired a go to receiver Rashee Rice, however Detroit security Brian Branch swatted it away, permitting the Lions to kneel out the clock for a 29-28 victory and giving the franchise its first NFL title since 1957.
ESPN senior sports activities analytics engineer Hank Gargiulo contributed to this simulation story.
