Receiver roulette: Chiefs' Tremendous Bowl possibilities with Adams, Cooper and Hopkins

The Kansas City Chiefs have a historical past of buying receivers on the commerce deadline. Two years in the past, the staff despatched a third- and a sixth-round choose to the Giants for Kadarius Toney. Final yr, Kansas Metropolis reacquired Mecole Hardman from the Jets for a sixth-round choose. After each of these trades, each Toney and Hardman made key performs within the Super Bowl to assist the Chiefs elevate the Lombardi Trophy.

These strikes present that coach Andy Reid, common supervisor Brett Veach and the Kansas Metropolis brass are usually not afraid so as to add a key receiver on the commerce deadline. And this yr the two-time defending Super Bowl champions are extra determined to usher in a go catcher than at any level in Reid’s tenure after shedding their high two receivers, Marquise Brown and Rashee Rice, to damage. Brown has not performed this yr with a shoulder damage and can reportedly miss the whole season. 

In the meantime Rice is a doubtlessly large loss. He leads the staff in receptions (24), targets (29), receiving yards (288) and receiving touchdowns (two) and drew a goal on 33.7% of the staff’s go makes an attempt, the second-largest share within the NFL. However he’s out for a minimum of this week’s recreation towards the Saints—and doubtlessly for much longer—with a knee damage.

A number of receivers—together with DeAndre Hopkins, Amari Cooper and Davante Adams—have been floated as doable targets for the Chiefs earlier than the commerce deadline on Nov. 5, however how a lot would every receiver assist Kansas Metropolis? And which receiver would assist probably the most? The SportsLine Projection Mannequin has crunched the numbers and has the solutions.

The mannequin, which simulates each NFL recreation 10,000 instances and is up nicely over $7,000 for $100 gamers on top-rated NFL picks since its inception, says that proper now the Chiefs (4-0) have simply the fourth greatest probability to win the Super Bowl, at 13.8%, regardless of being one in all simply two undefeated groups within the league. But when Rice had been to overlook the remainder of the season (the staff has stated it ought to know extra about his damage on Monday) and Kansas Metropolis doesn’t add a receiver, the Chiefs would have simply an 10.9% probability to win the Tremendous Bowl, in accordance with the mannequin.

“And if their quarterback was anybody apart from Patrick Mahomes, they’d most likely be at 4%,” says Stephen Oh, SportsLine’s principal information engineer and the person behind the mannequin.

The receiver who might assist Kansas Metropolis probably the most is Adams, the three-time first-team All-Professional at present with the Raiders. In keeping with the mannequin, the Chiefs’ probability to win the Tremendous Bowl would soar from 13.8% to 17.8% with Adams. That may be the best proportion within the league.

However whereas Las Vegas has reportedly put Adams on the buying and selling block, the Raiders are not expected to deal him to an AFC West rival like Kansas City.

Cooper can be the staff’s next-best possibility amongst receivers on the buying and selling block, in accordance with the mannequin. The five-time Professional Bowler at present with the Browns would give the Chiefs a 13.7% probability of of profitable the Tremendous Bowl, about the identical probability they’d have with a wholesome Rice.

The mannequin is relying on Cooper’s tendency to begin strongly with new groups. In 2018, he had simply 22 receptions for 280 yards and one landing in six video games with the Raiders. However after a midseason commerce to the Cowboys, he had 53 receptions for 725 yards and 6 touchdowns in 9 video games. And final season, which was his first in Cleveland, he had 78 receptions for 1,160 yards and 9 touchdowns. 

“Each time he goes someplace contemporary, he is a monster,” Oh says.

As for Hopkins, including the Titans wideout would solely assist Kansas Metropolis if Rice had been to overlook the remainder of the season. Hopkins has simply 10 receptions for 121 yards and one landing this yr. He would give the Chiefs a 13.1% probability of profitable the Tremendous Bowl, which is definitely lower than their possibilities with out him. Nonetheless, if Rice had been to overlook the remainder of the yr, Hopkins would improve the staff’s possibilities to threepeat by 2.2%.

“Hopkins is simply too previous his prime to completely exchange Rice, however the Chiefs can be vastly higher with him if Rice had been to overlook the season,” Oh says.

As for Week 5, the SportsLine Projection Mannequin is asking for an in depth recreation between the Chiefs and Saints on Monday night time. Nonetheless, that recreation is not one of many two with A-grade picks primarily based on mannequin simulations for Week 5. You may find those top-tier Week 5 NFL picks at SportsLine.