Ray Dalio, Bridgewater Associates co-chairman and co-chief funding officer, speaks throughout the Skybridge Capital SALT New York 2021 convention.
Brendan McDermid | Reuters
Because the U.S. Federal Reserve carried out its first interest rate reduce for the reason that early Covid pandemic, billionaire investor Ray Dalio flagged that the U.S. financial system nonetheless faces an “monumental quantity of debt.”
The central financial institution’s choice to cut the federal funds rate by 50 basis points to a spread of 4.75% to five%. The speed not solely determines short-term borrowing prices for banks, but in addition impacts numerous shopper merchandise like mortgages, auto loans and bank cards.
“The problem of the Federal Reserve is to maintain rates of interest excessive sufficient that they are good for the creditor, whereas preserving them not so excessive that they are problematic for the debtor,” the founding father of Bridgewater Associates instructed CNBC’s “Squawk Field Asia” on Thursday, noting the issue of this “balancing act.”
The U.S. Treasury Division not too long ago reported that the federal government has spent more than $1 trillion this year on interest payments for its $35.3 trillion national debt. This enhance in debt service prices additionally coincided with a major rise within the U.S. price range deficit in August, which is approaching $2 trillion for the 12 months.
On Wednesday, Dalio listed debt, cash and the financial cycle as one of many top five forces influencing the worldwide financial system. Increasing on his level Thursday, he mentioned he was usually concerned about “the large quantity of debt that’s being created by governments and monetized by central banks. These magnitudes have by no means existed in my lifetime.”
Governments world wide took on record debt burdens throughout the pandemic to finance stimulus packages and different financial measures to prevent a collapse.
When requested about his outlook and whether or not he sees a looming credit score occasion, Dalio responded he didn’t.
“I see a giant depreciation within the worth of that debt via a mixture of synthetic low actual charges, so you will not be compensated,” he mentioned.
Whereas the financial system “is in relative equilibrium,” Dalio famous there’s an “monumental” quantity of debt that must be rolled over and in addition bought, new debt created by the federal government.”
Dalio’s concern is that neither former President Donald Trump or Vice President Kamala Harris will prioritize debt sustainability, which means these pressures are unlikely to alleviate regardless of who wins the upcoming presidential election.
“I feel as time goes on, the trail can be more and more towards monetizing that debt, following a path similar to Japan,” Dalio posited, pointing to how the Asian nation has saved rates of interest artificially low, which had depreciated the Japanese yen and lowered the worth of Japanese bonds.
“The worth of a Japanese bond has gone down by 90% so that there is a large tax via artificially supplying you with a decrease yield annually,” he mentioned.
For years, Japan’s central financial institution caught to its unfavorable charges regime because it launched into one of the crucial aggressive financial easing workouts on this planet. The nation’s central financial institution solely not too long ago lifted interest rates in March this 12 months.
Moreover, when markets don’t have sufficient consumers to tackle the availability of debt, there may very well be a scenario the place rates of interest need to go up or the Fed could need to step in and purchase, which Dalio reckons they’d.
“I’d view [the] intervention of the Fed as a really vital unhealthy occasion,” the billionaire mentioned. Debt oversupply additionally raises questions of the way it will get paid.
“If we had been in laborious cash phrases, you then would have a credit score occasion. However in fiat financial phrases, you might have the purchases of that debt by the central banks, monetizing the debt,” he mentioned.
In that state of affairs, Dalio expects that the markets would additionally see all currencies go down as they’re all relative.
“So I feel you’d see an setting similar to the 1970’s setting, or the 1930 to ’45 sort of interval,” he mentioned.
For his personal portfolio, Dalio asserts that he doesn’t like debt belongings: “so if I’ll take a tilt, it will be underweight in debt belongings akin to bonds,” he mentioned.
