Prime of the Order: The Reds’ Inconsistency Belies Their Expertise

Welcome again to Prime of the Order, the place each Tuesday and Friday I’ll be beginning your baseball day with some information, notes, and ideas concerning the recreation we love.

Probably the most encouraging factor concerning the Reds getting into spring coaching was their depth. Noelvi Marte, Jeimer Candelario, Jonathan India, Christian Encarnacion-Strand, Elly De La Cruz, and Matt McLain would shuffle across the 4 infield spots, and TJ Friedl, Jake Fraley, Spencer Steer, and Will Benson would get the lion’s share of the outfield time. Hunter Greene, Andrew Abbott, Nick Lodolo, Frankie Montas, Brandon Williamson, Nick Martinez, and Graham Ashcraft had been battling for 5 rotation spots, and the skilled bullpen could be headlined by 2023 All-Star Alexis Díaz. Probably the most proficient of these gamers would make up the core, with greater than sufficient depth to climate underperformance and accidents. Effectively, that’s what we thought, anyway.

As an alternative, Marte was suspended 80 games after testing constructive for a performance-enhancing drug. McLain underwent shoulder surgical procedure and is predicted to overlook the overwhelming majority — if not the whole lot — of the season. Encarnacion-Strand may meet the identical destiny after fracturing his wrist after an anemic 37 wRC+ by way of his first 123 plate appearances. Williamson is on the IL with a strained shoulder that might preserve him off the mound for the entire season with out throwing a single pitch within the majors. Ashcraft is in Triple-A after posting a 5.05 ERA throughout 12 begins this season. Bullpen stalwarts Ian Gibaut, Emilio Pagán, and Tejay Antone are all on the IL. All this misfortune has added as much as a 35-39 document that has the Reds within the basement of the NL Central.

It hasn’t been all unhealthy, in fact. Cincinnati posted a successful document by way of April, and is 10-7 for the reason that begin of June, a stretch that features a seven-game successful streak from June 2-8. It’s a promising turnaround after the group’s brutal 9-18 Could.

If there’s a single participant who represents the Reds’ up-and-down 12 months, it’s De La Cruz. He’s on pace for greater than 6 WAR this 12 months, however his season hasn’t precisely been easy. He was among the best hitters within the majors over the primary month (165 wRC+); then was 32% worse than league common in Could. His 37 steals lead the majors, however he’s been caught six occasions and made one other seven outs on the bases, tying him with CJ Abrams of the Nationals for essentially the most within the majors. His 11.5% stroll fee is above common, however he’s additionally hanging out in 31.0% of his journeys to the plate and main the league in strikeouts with 97. OAA (+5) likes his protection, however DRS (-3) doesn’t, and he’s made extra errors (15) than anybody else, having explicit problem with correct throws (9 throwing errors). Even the handedness splits for the switch-hitter (124 wRC+ from the left aspect, 97 from the precise aspect) present a two-faced efficiency.

For positive, the Reds are and should be greater than their greatest participant in the event that they’re going to make good on all of the younger expertise they’ve gathered throughout some lean years. However the actuality is the contributions from catcher Tyler Stephenson (101 wRC+), Steer (104 wRC+), India (96 wRC+), Fraley (90), Friedl (99), and Benson (89) have been uneven at greatest. Candelario, who leads the group with a 116 wRC+, had a mark of 82 over the primary month of the season.

The pitching has been a rollercoaster as nicely, although Greene has lastly emerged as a bonafide no. 1 starter because of his new splitter, which has given him a strong third pitch. In any other case, Lodolo’s been on the IL twice already, Montas is averaging below 5 innings per begin, and Abbott, whereas completely good, has been aided by a low BABIP that papers over a strikeout fee that’s down eight factors. The bullpen is extra of the identical; Díaz’s ERA is above 5.00, and Fernando Cruz is striking out the world however strolling aplenty.

It’s simple for me to take a seat right here and say — as I typically do in these columns — that the group simply must get extra constant and string some wins collectively to get proper again right into a hilariously jumbled NL Wild Card race. And the Reds definitely have the expertise to do this, with a key reinforcement quickly to come back when Marte’s suspension ends after simply six extra video games.

Candelario and De La Cruz lead the group with 12 homers, placing them on tempo for about 25 every, and Justin Wilson throws the toughest common fastball (95.4 mph) of all of the relievers the group has used this 12 months. These aren’t horrible highs, however the relative lack of thump makes it harder to attain — requiring the offense to string extra hits collectively to plate runs — and stop scoring, as a result of their pitchers can’t blow fastballs by batters.

Happily, if the Reds are hovering round .500 towards the tip of July, there ought to be choices for them to improve their roster earlier than the deadline. Relievers Tanner Scott and previous pal Aroldis Chapman each have main points with command and management, however they’re tough to sq. up and throw more durable than anybody within the Cincinnati bullpen. Brent Rooker and Bryan De La Cruz ought to each be out there, have a number of years of membership management earlier than free company, and would at the moment be main the Reds in house runs.

There aren’t excellent choices on the market; there nearly by no means are. However oddly sufficient, the Reds would possibly discover consistency within the inconsistent. They don’t want so as to add a famous person over the following five-plus weeks. As an alternative, in the event that they tackle their inconsistencies by buying complementary expertise, they may convey out the very best within the younger core they’ve and make a postseason run.