Prime of the Order: It’s Time for Dealer Jerry To Add Bats

Welcome again to Prime of the Order, the place each Tuesday and Friday I’ll be beginning your baseball day with some information, notes, and ideas in regards to the sport we love.

The Mariners are within the driver’s seat within the AL West, with a 5.5-game lead over the Astros, and an 80% chance of constructing it again to the playoffs after narrowly falling brief final season. And contemplating that they only performed their 81st sport final night time, a tricky 4-3 loss to the Rays during which they led 3-1 coming into the eighth, now looks like an excellent time to judge what strikes president of baseball operations — and infamous dealer — Jerry Dipoto ought to make between now and the July 30 commerce deadline.

Seattle’s success has been pushed by its pitching, particularly its beginning 5. Solely the Phillies, Yankees, and Orioles have gotten lower ERAs out of their rotation, and after play concluded on Sunday, Mariners starters had pitched 23 extra innings than Yankees starters in the identical variety of video games. The M’s arguably have three aces in Luis Castillo, George Kirby, and Logan Gilbert; their fourth and fifth starters, Bryce Miller and Bryan Woo, aren’t too shabby both. Woo’s innings will in all probability must be managed rigorously down the stretch after he started the season on the IL as a result of forearm points, which even have precipitated him to go away just a few begins early. He was eliminated within the fourth inning of Monday’s sport with proper hamstring tightness, although it’s unclear but how a lot time, if any, he’ll miss. Both method, the Mariners can face up to a restricted or absent Woo due to what number of innings the entrance three are in a position to cowl.

Their relievers are usually doing their jobs as effectively, with the group rating thirteenth in bullpen ERA coming into Monday, and co-closers Andrés Muñoz and Ryne Stanek have executed a strong job ending off video games. The depth of the bullpen was presupposed to be a power coming into the season, however with Matt Brash and Jackson Kowar out for the season and Gregory Santos but to throw a pitch this yr, the Mariners are just a little skinny within the center innings. Nonetheless, Santos is expected to begin a rehab project quickly, and the lower-level bullpen points must be straightforward to handle with minor strikes between now and the commerce deadline.

Seattle’s tepid offense, alternatively, gained’t be such a easy repair. Its 97 wRC+ ranked seventeenth coming into this week, and the fellows who have been presupposed to be carrying the lineup (Julio Rodríguez, J.P. Crawford, Cal Raleigh, and offseason additions Mitch Garver and Jorge Polanco) have all been beneath common over the primary half of the season. Sturdy contributions from Luke Raley, Dominic Canzone, Dylan Moore, and Josh Rojas — together with a resurgence from Ty France — have stored the offense from being much more disappointing, however this lineup nonetheless isn’t ok for the Mariners to make a deep playoff run.

Raleigh is the one Mariners participant with at the very least 10 house runs on the midway level of the season; he’s pacing for 26 homers, 4 fewer than final yr. Rodríguez’s energy can also be down this season. He’s launched simply seven house runs after placing up his first 30-homer marketing campaign final yr. It’s value noting that Rodríguez struggled via the primary half of 2023 as effectively. At this level final yr, he had 13 house runs and a 104 wRC+ earlier than exploding for 19 dingers and a 145 wRC+ the remainder of the best way, so the Mariners needs to be assured that the 23-year-old phenom will flip issues round. Nevertheless, even with Julio at his greatest, Seattle wants extra offense.

There’ll, as at all times, be rental bats accessible. Guys like Tommy Pham or Josh Bell (particularly if he’s on certainly one of his yearly sizzling streaks) will surely assist the Mariners add depth and lengthen their lineup, however they want a game-changer, somebody to make pitchers sweat, and no one like that exists on the rental market except the Mets are prepared to commerce Pete Alonso. So Dipoto may need to go massive, even when he has to surrender Miller or Woo or a prime prospect like Harry Ford or Cole Young in such a transfer. Listed here are among the gamers the Mariners ought to goal in a commerce:

Dangerous Rooker

Brent Rooker is nice at one factor: hitting the crap out of the ball. He’s greatest suited because the DH as a substitute of taking part in the outfield. He additionally walks at a strong clip and strikes out a ton. However when he does join, few hitters within the league make extra optimum contact. Rooker is above the 90th percentile for xSLG, barrel price, hard-hit price, and sweet-spot share (he’s higher than Luis Arraez there!), serving to him pop 43 homers for the reason that begin of 2023 after being claimed off waivers by the A’s within the 2022-23 offseason. Most significantly, his energy performs anyplace: He’s obtained 13 house runs this yr, and he’d even have a pair extra if all of his batted balls have been in Seattle, per Statcast.

The factor about Rooker is he’s streaky. Final yr, he had a bonkers 232 wRC+ in March/April after which posted month-to-month marks, so as, of 77, 74, 144, 94, and 159 the remainder of the best way. This season has been an analogous story. He had a 122 wRC+ over the primary month and a 185 mark in Could, however he’s right down to 84 in June. Nonetheless, even a streaky Rooker would profit the Mariners, particularly as a result of he’s underneath membership management via the 2027 season.

Buying and selling With A Acquainted Group

The Rays are by no means ones to shrink back from buying and selling off their massive league roster, even after they’re in competition for a playoff spot. They usually’re definitely by no means ones to shrink back from buying and selling with the Mariners, with final offseason’s José Caballero-for-Luke Raley deal the latest instance in an extended line of swaps between the 2 groups.

Whereas the Mariners have been interested in Rays third baseman Isaac Paredes final offseason, I’d argue that buying him wouldn’t work out effectively. Paredes has made a reputation for himself along with his signature pull-side energy, however that method wouldn’t be as helpful if he have been taking part in his house video games in Seattle. Based on Statcast, solely six of Parades’ 11 house runs this season would’ve been gone at T-Cell Park, which has extraordinarily hitter-unfriendly park factors; this yr, the surroundings is decreasing batted ball distance by a median of six ft, not good for a hitter like Paredes who depends on optimum horizontal spray angle.

Randy Arozarena has struggled mightily this season, and Brandon Lowe is simply too injury-prone to be relied upon as a real lineup-lengthener. However how about Josh Lowe? He’s missed a while this yr as a result of accidents, however he’s mashed when wholesome and boasts plus energy and velocity. Like Rooker, Lowe is controllable; he isn’t set to achieve free company till the after the 2028 season. Because of this, the Rays would ask for lots in return. However Lowe could be a wonderful match for the Mariners, primarily the lite, left-handed model of our subsequent and last commerce chance.

The White (Sox) Whale

Accidents are at all times going to be on the forefront of any dialogue about dynamic White Sox heart fielder Luis Robert Jr. Most lately, he missed 55 of Chicago’s first 79 video games this season after re-injuring the identical hip that restricted him to 68 video games in 2021. However what he did final yr, in his first and solely full season, ought to make groups trying to improve their lineup drool at the potential for buying him. Robert has 40-homer energy and the velocity to swipe 20 bases. He’s additionally a wonderful defensive heart fielder with a powerful throwing arm, instruments that ought to make him an elite proper fielder — the place he’d virtually definitely slide as a result of Seattle already has Rodríguez in heart.

Robert is just not with out his flaws; along with his harm historical past, he strikes out a ton and doesn’t actually take walks. However he would clearly be the second-best place participant on the Mariners and the game-changing pressure they most desperately want. And whereas he’d value a king’s ransom which may decimate the Seattle farm system, that is the kind of transfer that matches the Mariners completely. They’d get a participant whose uncooked expertise equals that of Rodríguez and one who’s underneath membership management via 2027, courtesy of two $20 million membership choices that they’d absolutely decide up.

Will the White Sox transfer him? There doesn’t appear to be anybody untouchable on Chicago’s roster, however normal supervisor Chris Getz has each proper to ask for the moon. Are the Mariners prepared to fork it over to get one other star? They need to be.