Prime of the Order: AL Commerce Deadline Preview

Welcome again to Prime of the Order, the place each Tuesday and Friday I’ll be beginning your baseball day with some information, notes, and ideas in regards to the recreation we love.

With simply 4 weeks to go till the July 30 commerce deadline, now’s a good time to start out taking a lay of the land and figuring out which groups will likely be shopping for, which will likely be promoting, and that are caught within the center. I’ll deal with the AL at the moment and the NL on Friday. We’ve acquired lots to cowl, so let’s get began.

All playoff odds are up to date by means of the beginning of play on Monday.

The Apparent Consumers

New York Yankees (99.4% playoff odds)

It doesn’t take a lot scrolling by means of Twitter/X to see some Yankees followers in a little bit of a panic due to how issues have gone these days. They’re 5-10 over their final 15 video games, Giancarlo Stanton and Anthony Rizzo are on the IL, and Alex Verdugo and Anthony Volpe have gone chilly throughout this disappointing stretch. However they’re nonetheless all however assured of a playoff spot, and the latest cracks within the basis don’t change their deadline technique.

The rotation has hit a little bit of a tough patch lately, however it’s nonetheless a powerful and deep group. Enhancing the offense behind Juan Soto and Aaron Judge and including bullpen depth are the 2 areas that New York wants to handle earlier than the tip of this month.

Potential additions: Reliever Tanner Scott (Marlins), third baseman Ryan McMahon (Rockies), and utilitymen Luis Rengifo (Angels) and Amed Rosario (Rays).

Baltimore Orioles (98.0% playoff odds)

Properly, the Orioles actually don’t want offense. Their place participant depth is astounding, and the present roster doesn’t even embody high prospects Jackson Holliday and Coby Mayo, who each are ready within the wings at Triple-A.

Baltimore’s pitching, however, is one thing of a large number. With Kyle Bradish, John Means, and Tyler Wells out for the season, Corbin Burnes and Grayson Rodriguez are the one pitchers left within the rotation whom I’d feeling snug beginning within the postseason. Including a starter or two would have the cascading impact of bettering the the Orioles’ aid pitching by bumping Cole Irvin and/or Albert Suárez to the bullpen. They’d be sensible to commerce from their wealth of place gamers to raised their pitching. A swap with the Mariners, who’ve a surplus of pitching however lack offense, would make numerous sense.

Potential additions: Starters Bryce Miller and Bryan Woo (Mariners), Garrett Crochet and Erick Fedde (White Sox), Tyler Anderson (Angels), Yusei Kikuchi (Blue Jays), Jack Flaherty (Tigers), and Cal Quantrill (Rockies), and relievers Mason Miller (A’s) and Tanner Scott (Marlins).

Cleveland Guardians (89.2% playoff odds)

The Guardians have one of the best nearer in baseball, Emmanuel Clase, anchoring their bullpen, however their principally ineffective and inefficient beginning rotation might make issues tough for the relievers down the stretch as their innings pile up. It helps that Cleveland has Gavin Williams again and lately added Matthew Boyd on a one-year deal, although he gained’t pitch till August, however these two are hardly sufficient to sufficiently reinforce the rotation. That stated, the Guardians sometimes don’t swing massive for pitching, opting as a substitute to develop arms from inside, so it’s laborious to think about that they’ll play on the high of the marketplace for starters, particularly the non-rentals.

Cleveland’s offense has been a strong Voltron of multi-positional versatility and platoons, although I’d argue it might use yet one more on a regular basis bat with some pop.

Potential additions: Starters Jack Flaherty (Tigers), Trevor Williams (Nationals), Frankie Montas (Reds), Nick Pivetta (Pink Sox), and Yusei Kikuchi (Blue Jays), outfielder Taylor Ward (Angels), and DH/outfielder Brent Rooker (A’s).

Minnesota Twins (79.5% playoff odds)

Regardless of chasing the Guardians within the AL Central standings, the Twins are in a great place as we enter July. Carlos Correa has been dynamic, Byron Buxton and Royce Lewis are within the lineup collectively, and the rotation has been fairly good.

Nonetheless, Minnesota lacks energy — catcher Ryan Jeffers, who’s been slumping these days, leads the staff with 13 homers — although it actually helps to have Lewis wholesome and thumping once more. The Twins might additionally use a greater backup infielder than Kyle Farmer, who’s been anemic on the dish all season lengthy.

Potential additions: Infielder Gio Urshela (Tigers), outfielder Taylor Ward (Angels), DH/outfielder Brent Rooker (A’s), and utilityman Amed Rosario (Rays).

Seattle Mariners (71.9% playoff odds)

The Mariners are the inverse of the Orioles: Seattle has wonderful beginning pitching however desperately wants to spice up its offense. The O’s have a surplus of hitters, and if the M’s are keen to commerce a back-of-the-rotation arm like Bryce Miller or Bryan Woo (particularly if they will add one other starter elsewhere), the 2 groups completely ought to make a commerce. Baltimore outfielder Heston Kjerstad and second baseman Connor Norby can be good additions to the Seattle lineup.

Last week, I discussed that buying Luis Robert Jr. can be one of the best improve the Mariners might probably make to their lineup, and though shifting Robert can be the prudent choice for the White Sox, it’s unclear whether or not they’d truly do it. If not, there are nonetheless loads of hitters on the block who’d assist beef up the Seattle offense.

Potential additions: Second baseman Connor Norby (Orioles), outfielders Heston Kjerstad (Orioles), Luis Robert Jr. (White Sox), Taylor Ward (Angels), Josh Lowe (Rays), and DH/outfielder Brent Rooker (A’s).

On the Fence

Houston Astros (54.1% playoff odds)

After catching fire over the ultimate two weeks of June, the Astros most likely will find yourself shopping for on the deadline, however contemplating their playoff odds are principally a coin flip, we’ve to contemplate each choices. In the event that they purchase, they’ll deal with including pitching, although they may actually use a giant bat at first base. In the event that they determine to promote, I can’t think about they’d tear all of it down. I additionally don’t count on that they’d commerce third baseman Alex Bregman, though he’s a pending free agent, as a result of they most likely wouldn’t need to harm their probabilities to re-sign him within the offseason. If nothing else, they’ll lengthen him a qualifying provide that will earn them a compensation draft decide if he indicators elsewhere.

Potential additions: Starters Yusei Kikuchi (Blue Jays), Nick Pivetta (Pink Sox), Jack Flaherty (Tigers), Trevor Williams (Nationals), and Frankie Montas (Reds), reliever Tanner Scott (Marlins), and first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (Blue Jays).

Potential subtractions: Starter Justin Verlander and reliever Ryan Pressly.

Kansas Metropolis Royals (40.1% playoff odds)

Kansas Metropolis has given each indication that it intends to purchase on the deadline, and its weekend collection win over the Guardians did nothing to alter that stance. The Royals want bullpen assist and extra pop of their lineup.

The factor is, our playoff odds don’t love their probabilities. If they’ve a tough month, they need to think about reversing course to enhance their longer-term outlook to allow them to make a run subsequent 12 months. They’ve good complementary items on expiring contracts that groups would love to accumulate.

Potential acquisitions: Reliever Tanner Scott (Marlins), infielder Ryan McMahon (Rockies), outfielders Taylor Ward (Angels) and Josh Lowe (Rays), and DH/outfielder Brent Rooker (A’s).

Potential subtractions: Relievers Will Smith and Chris Stratton, and utilitymen Garrett Hampson and Adam Frazier.

Boston Pink Sox (31.4% playoff odds)

Oh, if solely Pink Sox didn’t play in such a troublesome division. Profitable the AL East is basically off the desk, so in the event that they sneak into the playoffs, it’ll be as a Wild Card staff. Just like the Astros and Royals, if Boston is on the promoting aspect, it ought to promote solely its leases so it might probably attempt to contend once more subsequent 12 months.

If the Pink Sox determine to purchase, they want depth on each side of the ball. Robust seasons from Tanner Houck, Kutter Crawford, Rafael Devers, Jarren Duran, Wilyer Abreu, and Tyler O’Neill have helped — as will a return from Triston Casas — however the supporting solid hasn’t been fairly as useful.

Potential acquisitions: Starters Trevor Williams (Nationals) and Frankie Montas (Reds), reliever Tanner Scott (Marlins), infielder Gio Urshela (Tigers), and utilityman Amed Rosario (Rays).

Potential subtractions: Starter Nick Pivetta, relievers Kenley Jansen, Chris Martin, and Chase Anderson, and outfielder Tyler O’Neill.

Tampa Bay Rays (21.6% playoff odds)

Even after they have been clear contenders, the Rays have been all the time keen to commerce from their main league roster. Now, with their payroll at an all-time excessive and the staff merely treading water, that stance needs to be much more pronounced.

No one’s protected from Tampa Bay’s wheeling and dealing, and I’m not even going to trouble itemizing potential acquisitions as a result of it might be anybody the staff units its sights on. These are the Rays, in any case.

Potential subtractions: Starter Aaron Civale, relievers Phil Maton and Shawn Armstrong, second baseman Brandon Lowe, and utilityman Amed Rosario.

Texas Rangers (6.7% playoff odds)

In the event that they weren’t the reigning World Sequence champs, I’d be fairly certain the Rangers would promote on the deadline. However with loads of expertise on the roster, and with Wyatt Langford lastly breaking out, I might see them standing pat or including whereas subtracting alongside the margins in hopes that all of it clicks. Possibly they may re-create their magic by buying and selling for a few of the relievers that they had final 12 months, equivalent to Will Smith, Chris Stratton, and Aroldis Chapman. Both means, I don’t see any enormous strikes coming.

Potential acquisitions: Relievers Will Smith and Chris Stratton (Royals), Aroldis Chapman (Pirates), Yimi García (Blue Jays), and John Brebbia (White Sox), infielder Gio Urshela (Tigers), outfielder Tommy Pham (White Sox), and utilityman Amed Rosario (Rays).

Potential subtractions: Reliever José Ureña and outfielders Travis Jankowski and Robbie Grossman.

Probably and Particular Sellers

Toronto Blue Jays (4.5% playoff odds)

Whereas the Blue Jays haven’t publicly dedicated to promoting, their lane for competition continues to slim, they usually simply don’t have the depth of their farm system to make the strikes essential to contend.

In the event that they promote, I don’t suppose anybody can be off the desk, however they probably can be extra keen to commerce their costly contracts as a substitute of their extra affordable offers. Which means they most likely gained’t be buying utilityman Isiah Kiner-Falefa and outfielder Daulton Varsho. That’s high-quality, as a result of Toronto has extra high-end expertise to commerce than another staff within the league.

Potential subtractions: Starters Yusei Kikuchi, Chris Bassitt, Kevin Gausman, and José Berríos, relievers Yimi García and Trevor Richards, first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr., shortstop Bo Bichette, infielder/DH Justin Turner, outfielders George Springer and Kevin Kiermaier, and catcher Danny Jansen,

Detroit Tigers (3.1% playoff odds)

The Tigers seemed like they might be comfortable patrons or not less than stand pat as lately as a month or so in the past, however their season has taken a nosedive partly as a result of underperformance of Spencer Torkelson and an harm to Kerry Carpenter. Tarik Skubal isn’t going anyplace, however Detroit has a pleasant assortment of leases that different groups will covet.

Potential subtractions: Starter Jack Flaherty, reliever Shelby Miller, infielder Gio Urshela, outfielder/first baseman Mark Canha, and catcher Carson Kelly.

Los Angeles Angels (0.7% playoff odds)

Ought to the Angels tear it down? Completely. Will they tear it down? By no means! At the very least not so long as Arte Moreno owns the staff.

Whereas I can’t think about Mike Trout ever sporting one other uniform, the Angels have a large assortment of leases who can be of use to contenders. Moreover, they may (learn: ought to) commerce a number of gamers who’re underneath membership management, equivalent to Luis Rengifo and Tyler Anderson, who free brokers after 2025, and Taylor Ward, a free agent after 2026.

Potential subtractions: Starter Tyler Anderson, relievers Matt Moore, Carlos Estévez, Luis García, and Adam Cimber, infielder Brandon Drury, outfielders Taylor Ward and Kevin Pillar, utilityman Luis Rengifo, and DH Miguel Sanó.

Chicago White Sox (0.0% playoff odds)

The White Sox have been all the time going to be laborious sellers, particularly after they traded Dylan Cease to the Padres shortly earlier than the season began and signaled an actual and doubtlessly lengthy rebuild.

Garrett Crochet is sort of undoubtedly going to be on the transfer, with Erick Fedde more likely to go as nicely. The one participant who is likely to be untouchable is heart fielder Luis Robert Jr., although they most likely ought to store him round to get a haul of prospects again.

Potential subtractions: Starters Garrett Crochet and Erick Fedde, relievers Michael Kopech and John Brebbia, shortstop Paul DeJong, outfielders Luis Robert Jr. and Tommy Pham, and DH/outfielder Eloy Jiménez.

Oakland Athletics (0.0% playoff odds)

The Sacramento (however don’t put it within the staff title) A’s are going to look completely different than the ultimate iteration of the Oakland A’s, and that makeover will begin this month. Whereas a commerce together with Mason Miller deal feels extraordinarily laborious to agree upon contemplating his 5 years of staff management after this one — giving the A’s a marketable participant for his or her 2028 beginnings in Las Vegas — they nonetheless ought to think about buying and selling him for a prospect haul. Everybody else of worth on their roster must also be accessible.

Potential subtractions: Starter JP Sears, relievers Mason Miller and Lucas Erceg, outfielder JJ Bleday, DH/outfielders Brent Rooker and Miguel Andujar, and catcher Shea Langeliers.