Overreactions for each NFL group after 4 weeks: Commanders a playoff group? Steelers group to beat in AFC North?

The NFL season is actually on the quarter mark (onerous to inform with the 18-week schedule and 17-game slate), and we’re beginning to get a gauge of the place groups stand and what path they may go. The Minnesota Vikings and the Kansas City Chiefs are 4-0 and the Jacksonville Jaguars are 0-4. Exterior of these groups, groups are nonetheless looking for an id heading into October. 

The Seattle Seahawks and Washington Commanders are stunning division leaders whereas the Cincinnati Bengals are one of many preseason Super Bowl contenders making an attempt to dig themselves out of an early-season gap. By means of these first 4 weeks, now we have sufficient knowledge for overreactions with each group within the league.

So which of those overreactions are literally overreactions? Which ones are actuality? That is an overreaction for each group after 4 weeks:

Kyler Murray will get an excessive amount of blame for offensive woes

Overreaction or actuality: Actuality

Kyler Murray isn’t the issue with a Cardinals offense that is tenth in factors per possession (2.32) and eighth in yards per possession (35.2). The Cardinals have averaged simply 13.5 factors during the last two weeks, however Murray has a 66.1% completion price with two touchdowns to an interception (87.6 ranking). 

On the season, Murray has accomplished 69.4% of his passes with six touchdowns to an interception. He is seventh within the NFL in passer ranking (104.6). Murray makes some poor choices, however the offensive line is twenty fifth within the league in pass-block win price. He is compelled to creating a play before he needs to. 

Bijan Robinson ought to get fewer touches in favor of Tyler Allgeier

Overreaction or actuality: Overreaction

Bijan Robinson has 55 carries for 224 yards and a landing, averaging solely 56.0 yards per sport (twenty third in NFL). He has simply 359 yards from scrimmage and is averaging 17.5 touches per sport. 

Regardless that Allgeier is enjoying nicely, Robinson is not getting the ball sufficient. Allgeier is averaging 6.1 yards per carry and 6.6 yards per contact, however his 7.5 touches a sport is okay. The Falcons must give attention to getting Robinson the ball extra in video games, not much less. 

Derrick Henry will rush for two,000 yards

Overreaction or actuality: Overreaction

Derrick Henry leads the NFL in dashing with 480 yards and is averaging an astonishing 6.0 yards per carry by means of the primary 4 video games. He has a whopping 350 yards and three touchdowns during the last two video games. Henry is on tempo for two,040 yards this season (120 dashing yards a sport).

Does that imply he’ll get to 2,000 once more? Extremely unlikely, even in an offense tailor-made to his strengths with Lamar Jackson working the ball to assist him out. Henry must keep wholesome for all 17 video games and might’t afford off days like he had the primary two weeks of the 12 months. He is actually a menace to win the dashing title once more. 

Buffalo will win the AFC East by a number of video games 

Overreaction or actuality: Actuality

Even after getting blown out by Baltimore, Buffalo is probably the most constant group within the AFC East. The Payments are 3-1 and are already separating themselves from the Dolphins (who’re nonetheless with out Tua Tagovailoa) and the Patriots (who’re in a rebuilding section). 

The Jets are proficient, however they’re too inconsistent week to week and are not coached in addition to the Payments. This division is Buffalo’s to lose, and the Payments could win it earlier than Week 18 is performed. 

Bryce Young should not begin the remainder of the 12 months

Overreaction or actuality: Actuality

Sadly for the Panthers, the most effective factor to do is hold Bryce Younger on the bench and have him study watching from Andy Dalton. Carolin aisn’t a playoff group by any means, however the Panthers are at the very least aggressive underneath Dalton. 

Dalton is 51 of 77 in his two begins with 539 yards with 5 touchdowns to 1 interception for a 102.7 ranking. The Panthers are scoring 30 factors per sport and averaging 406 yards per sport underneath Dalton. It is a no-brainer. 

Their offensive line is the worst within the NFL

Overreaction or actuality: Overreaction

The Bears offensive line is not excellent. The 16 sacks allowed are tied for the third most within the NFL and the ten.2% sack price is fifth worst. Nonetheless, their 32.5% stress price is 14th.

That is additionally a Caleb Williams downside, as Williams misplaced 124 yards attributable to sacks — probably the most within the league. The Bears haven’t got the worst offensive line within the league, however a few of this must be attributed to Williams. 

Cincinnati Bengals

They would be the first group to begin 0-3 and make the playoffs since 2018 Texans

Overreaction or actuality: Overreaction

The Bengals are used to getting off to sluggish begins, however 0-3 could be very robust to beat. Cincinnati is presently 1-3 and performs host to Baltimore, a sport the Bengals should have in Week 5. The Bengals have winnable video games within the Giants and Browns, earlier than one other essential residence showdown with the Eagles. 

Remember the Bengals play the Ravens once more on the highway and the Steelers twice too. Additionally they have highway video games towards the Cowboys and Chargers in there. The important thing for Cincinnati is to go 5-1 within the AFC North. If the Bengals can try this, their possibilities of making the playoffs are fairly good. Cincinnati should win Sunday.

Amari Cooper is enjoying his manner out of Cleveland

Overreaction or actuality: Overreaction

Amari Cooper has struggled in three of the 4 video games he is performed this 12 months, having lower than 40 yards in these contests. He would not have a 100-yard sport but both, however does have two touchdowns.

Within the final 12 months of his contract, Cleveland might commerce Cooper if the Browns’ season will get out of hand. With Nick Chubb out, Cooper is definitely their greatest offensive weapon. The Browns want their high playmakers again, then issues will open up for Cooper. 

They’ll commerce for a working again on the deadline

Overreaction or actuality: Actuality

The Cowboys have to enhance the worst dashing assault in soccer. Dallas is final in dashing yards per sport (75.3) and thirtieth in yards per carry (3.5). Ezekiel Elliott and Rico Dowdle simply aren’t reducing it, averaging 3.7 yards per carry with one landing. 

It is onerous to take the Cowboys critically as an NFC East contender till they repair their working again scenario. They should add somebody by the deadline. 

Bo Nix will get benched in some unspecified time in the future this 12 months

Overreaction or actuality: Overreaction

The Broncos gave Bo Nix the Week 1 begin as a result of he received the job in coaching camp. Will Nix be capable to maintain on to that spot along with his subpar play? 

Nix is thirty first within the league in passer ranking (61.5) and has only one landing to 4 interceptions with 4.8 yards per try (thirty second within the league). Whereas being one of many worst quarterbacks within the NFL, Sean Payton is keen to let the rookie study on the fly. Additionally helps Denver is 2-2. 

They’re the most effective group within the NFC

Overreaction or actuality: Actuality

Arduous to say this after 4 weeks when the Lions aren’t even main their very own division, however the Lions have confirmed they’re the Super Bowl contenders we thought. They’re seventh in factors per possession (2.41) and sixth in yards per possession (36.1) and are beginning to discover their stride on offense. Additionally helps they’ve playmakers throughout the board. 

Detroit is 3-0 towards the NFC West, however had a press release win over Seattle in Week 4. Proper now, the Lions are pretty much as good as marketed. The Week 7 sport towards the Vikings will probably be an indicator for each groups. 

The go rush continues to be an issue

Overreaction or actuality: Overreaction

Inexperienced Bay is sixteenth within the league in stress price (35.1%) and seventh within the league in sack price (9.1%). The Packers are attending to the quarterback, so why is that this a subject by means of 4 video games? 

Kenny Clark has no sacks and no quarterback hits. Rashan Gary has one sack, and that was when he was unblocked in Week 1. They do have a mixed 15 pressures, however the Packers must get them going. 

They are not a Super Bowl contender this 12 months

Overreaction or actuality: Overreaction

Houston has probably the most proficient rosters within the NFL and are 3-1, however all of their wins are by one rating or much less (a win is a win). The Texans performed an excellent group within the Vikings and obtained run out of the constructing.

Granted the Texans are taking good care of enterprise and will win the AFC South simply, however how do they stack up towards the AFC contenders? We’ll discover out this week towards Buffalo. Houston additionally performs Detroit, Kansas Metropolis and Baltimore later this 12 months as nicely. 

Joe Flacco ought to begin over Anthony Richardson

Overreaction or actuality: Overreaction

Anthony Richardson is harm typically, that is simply the truth. He missed 13 video games final season with accidents and has performed simply eight video games in his two seasons — solely ending 4 of them. Does not assist he is solely finishing 50.6% of his passes with three touchdowns to 6 interceptions (60.2 ranking). 

The Colts offense is extra environment friendly with Flacco, however it’s only one sport. Richardson is a high 5 draft choose. When he is wholesome, he performs. 

Jacksonville Jaguars

Doug Pederson will not have his job by Week 12

Overreaction or actuality: Actuality

That is when the Jaguars have their bye week. Jacksonville is 0-4 and Doug Pederson is already having to face questions on his job standing. The Jaguars’ solely win since Week 13 of final season was towards the Panthers, shedding 9 of 10 that included a surprising collapse within the AFC South.

Jacksonville has three winnable video games developing, but when the Jaguars do not go 3-0 on this stretch — is Pederson secure? The Jaguars then play the Packers, Eagles, Vikings and Lions so as. Pederson’s destiny could come when the bye week hits. 

Kansas Metropolis Chiefs

The three-peat is over with Rashee Rice’s damage

Overreaction or actuality: Overreaction

Rashee Rice’s knee damage is devastating to a Chiefs offense that relied on him to release Travis Kelce and provides Patrick Mahomes a much-needed goal on the skin. Now that Rice is out, can the Chiefs offense be adequate to assist out an ideal protection?

Kelce must proceed his sturdy play from Sunday and get again to an All-Professional stage. Xavier Worthy may also be factored extra, however the lack of Rice is very large. As we realized, by no means doubt Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes. They overcome issues. 

Davante Adams will get traded for a first-round choose

Overreaction or actuality: Actuality

The Raiders reportedly will take a second-round choose for Davante Adams, however he is nonetheless value a first-round choose at 31 years outdated. Adams has 4 straight 1,000-yard seasons and can develop into a high 5 receiver with a greater quarterback. 

Groups will bid for Adams, realizing he is the lacking piece towards being a Super Bowl contender. The Raiders ought to get a first-round choose for him. 

The magic is working out for J.K. Dobbins

Overreaction or actuality: Overreaction

J.Okay. Dobbins hasn’t been the identical working again the final two weeks as he was the primary two, primarily as a result of the inside offensive line hasn’t been good (and is a weak point on a unit that is not sturdy to start with). 

Dobbins has 29 carries for 76 yards during the last two video games, however that may simply flip the opposite manner. Enjoying weaker inside defenses will assist get the Chargers’ working sport going once more. Per week off may also assist Dobbins relaxation up as nicely. Dobbins continues to be on tempo for 1,454 yards this season. If he is wholesome, he’ll be round that quantity. 

Tutu Atwell will lead NFL in yards per catch

Overreaction or actuality: Overreaction

Tutu Atwell is without doubt one of the greatest deep-ball receivers within the league, benefitting within the absence of Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp. He is third within the NFL in yards per catch (20.3), having 11 catches for 223 yards by means of 4 video games. 

The deep balls from Matthew Stafford will come, however it is going to be onerous for Atwell to take care of that tempo. Justin Jefferson and Rashid Shaheed are on the highest 10 of this checklist as nicely. Atwell continues to be having a superb begin to the 12 months. 

Tua Tagovailoa is a top-10 quarterback 

Overreaction or actuality: Actuality

The Dolphins are presently dwelling the truth of not having Tua Tagovailoa as their quarterback, possessing probably the most anemic offenses within the NFL. It is time the NFL accepts how useful Tagovailoa is when he is on the sector. 

Of the 20 quarterbacks with 750+ go makes an attempt because the begin of the 2022 season, Tagovailoa is the one one with a 100+ passer ranking (101.5). He is fifth in completion price (67.2), sixth in landing passes (56), and third in landing price (5.5%). The Dolphins are 20-12 in his begins. 

When Tagovailoa performs, the Dolphins are a playoff group. When he would not, the outcomes are clear. 

Minnesota Vikings

Sam Darnold is the MVP

Overreaction or actuality: Actuality

There is not another choice at this level. Not solely are the Vikings off to a 4-0 begin, however Sam Darnold is the most effective quarterback within the league by means of 4 weeks. Darnold leads the league in landing passes (11) and landing price (10.9%), the one participant with 10+ landing passes and a landing price over 7.0%. 

So long as the Vikings hold successful and Darnold is enjoying nicely, he’ll be within the thick of the MVP race. Minnesota is not 4-0 with out Darnold’s wonderful play. 

Drake Maye ought to be the beginning quarterback proper now

Overreaction or actuality: Actuality

The Patriots ought to make the change to Drake Maye now, but will nonetheless roll with Jacoby Brissett for at the very least one other week. Of the 26 quarterbacks with 100+ go makes an attempt, Brissett is twenty fourth in completion price (60.4%), tied for twenty fourth in landing passes (2), twenty third in passer ranking (77.0), and twenty fourth in yards per try (5.3).

New England is rebuilding and needs to be affected person with Maye, however the time is now. Brissett simply is not doing sufficient to take care of his job. 

Their 2-0 begin was fraudulent 

Overreaction or actuality: Actuality

New Orleans was the speak of the league after two weeks, having a historic begin on offense whereas averaging 45.5 factors per sport. That wasn’t going to maintain, however the Saints have scored simply 36 factors over their final two video games.

The Saints sit at 2-2 and have a showdown with the Chiefs, adopted by the division-leading Buccaneers. Each groups have aggressive defenses, which will probably be a real check to see what their high-powered offense is product of. Once more, do not put lots of inventory into blowing out the Panthers. 

Brian Burns was a foul deal 

Overreaction or actuality: Overreaction

The Giants gave up a premium for Brian Burns and signed him to an enormous extension. To this point, they have not gotten what they paid for. 

Burns has simply 11 pressures, one sack, and three quarterback hits by means of 4 video games — a stress price of 10.1%. He is enjoying on the identical defensive position with Kayvon Thibodeaux and Dexter Lawrence, so these numbers ought to be higher. Exterior of 1 week, Burns simply hasn’t gotten to the quarterback persistently. 

Nonetheless too quickly to find out if this was a foul deal, however the early returns aren’t promising. 

Robert Saleh will not final the season as coach 

Overreaction or actuality: Overreaction

The Jets have a really proficient roster, however proceed to be inconsistent week to week. Having a 10-day layoff and dealing with the Broncos at residence ought to be a straightforward win, however the Jets ended up failing to attain 10 factors towards Denver (and misplaced).

Arduous to gauge what the Jets are, however the league is about to search out out with consecutive video games towards the Vikings (London), Payments and Steelers developing. Robert Saleh goes to be on the recent seat all season, however the Jets will probably be giving him the advantage of the doubt except the 12 months spirals uncontrolled. 

Nick Sirianni will not final the season as coach 

Overreaction or actuality: Overreaction

Similar scenario because the Jets, because the Eagles are inconsistent and dealing with some inside issues despite the 2-2 begin. Sound acquainted? 

The Eagles do not seem to have exercised the demons from final season, and the protection continues to be struggling regardless of including Vic Fangio. Then there’s the entire debate on what Nick Sirianni truly does and the questionable choices he is made throughout video games within the early going. 

Getting gamers wholesome (particularly A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, and Lane Johnson) will considerably assist out the Eagles after the bye week. Then it is truthful to evaluate Sirianni’s destiny. 

They will win the AFC North in the event that they purchase Davante Adams 

Overreaction or actuality: Actuality

The Steelers have gotten higher play from Justin Fields than anticipated, as he is performed a pivotal function of their 3-1 begin. The offense nonetheless wants a lift to assist out a top-five protection. Enter Davante Adams, the huge receiver the Steelers have been looking for all offseason. 

Adams instantly helps the Steelers’ pink zone offense (twenty seventh in NFL) and opens up the passing sport for Fields (three passing touchdowns). Baltimore is the group to beat within the division proper now, however Pittsburgh will probably be a big menace to win the division with Adams. 

The Brandon Aiyuk scenario will play itself out 

Overreaction or actuality: Actuality

Brandon Aiyuk obtained the cash he sought and continues to be having some inside affairs with the group. The beginning for Aiyuk hasn’t been nice both, as he has simply 13 catches for 167 yards and nil touchdowns after 4 video games. 

Aiyuk ought to be again into sport form and nonetheless has good chemistry with Brock Purdy. The shorts debacle apart, Aiyuk ought to be nice because the season progresses. The 2023 model of Aiyuk ought to be coming sooner somewhat than later. 

Seattle Seahawks

Mike Macdonald will take this group to the playoffs

Overreaction or actuality: Actuality

The Seahawks are one of many largest surprises of the season, as they’re off to a 3-1 begin with their lone loss coming to the Lions on the highway. They’ve a top-10 protection, presently rating ninth in factors allowed per possession (1.65) and third in yards allowed per possession (23.2). The offense can be a top-15 unit and scored 23+ factors each sport.

This run seems to have sustaining energy, which helps when a group is well-coached and would not flip the ball over (+3 in turnover margin). The schedule is difficult, however Seattle has the look of a playoff group. 

They’re the group to beat within the NFC South

Overreaction or actuality: Actuality

Solely took one sport to find out Tampa Bay was going to compete for the division once more. Exterior of a stunning blemish at residence to the Broncos, the Buccaneers have been spectacular towards three high quality opponents (blowing out each the Commanders and Eagles). 

The Buccaneers have a brutal schedule, however Baker mayfield hasn’t missed a beat underneath Liam Coen and the growing old protection nonetheless persistently makes performs. To not point out the Buccaneers have been banged up throughout the board. It is a good group. 

Will Levis will not be the starter popping out of the bye week 

Overreaction or actuality: Overreaction

The Titans will probably be giving Levis one other alternative to retain his beginning job, though there’s reliable motive to maneuver on to Mason Rudolph. Levis has been the sufferer of 15 sacks, but additionally has thrown six interceptions and has misplaced all three fumbles. 

Levis has made inexcusable choices with the soccer and has been publicly criticized by coach Brian Callahan. The Titans are a couple of poor Levis choices away from having a greater file than 1-3. Regardless, Levis is on a brief leash.

Washington Commanders

Dan Quinn will take this group to the playoffs

Overreaction or actuality: Overreaction

Jayden Daniels has the look of being this 12 months’s model of C.J. Stroud, a difference-making quarterback who can flip a franchise round. And that is precisely what he is doing. The Commanders are greater than aggressive with Daniels, however will defenses alter to him and the way will he deal with them?

Then there’s the protection, which is dead-last within the NFL in factors allowed per possession (3.31) and yards allowed per possession (44.7). That’s not sustainable. To not point out the Commanders must play the Eagles and Cowboys twice, a litmus check for his or her NFC East possibilities. 

Proper now, let’s have a look at if the Commanders are sustainable. The second half of their schedule is troublesome.