Oneil Cruz Has Shaken Off the Rust

Oneil Cruz is a participant of extremes. The 6-foot-7 shortstop — the tallest man ever to play the place commonly — doesn’t simply have unimaginable bat velocity and energy, he can lay declare to the hardest-hit ball of the Statcast period, and he as soon as held the document for the toughest throw by an infielder as nicely. However for as loud as his contact is, the frequency with which he makes it has been a difficulty, as he’s significantly susceptible to chasing pitches exterior the zone. Defensive metrics don’t love him both. But he’s the sort of participant you may’t take your eyes off, as a result of when all of it comes collectively, it’s a sight to behold — and steadily, it’s been coming collectively extra regularly.

Working example: Final week discovered Cruz in a protracted funk, hitting simply .151/.224/.283 in his earlier 58 plate appearances courting again to Might 15 whereas placing out 23 instances (39.6%) in that span. After going 0-for-4 in final Tuesday’s collection opener towards the Dodgers, he collected a pair of hits the following evening, together with this three-run homer off Evan Phillips:

That’s a 462-footer into the Allegheny River, the longest homer of Cruz’s main league profession by 25 toes, and the third splash hit of his profession; he additionally had ones on September 6, 2022 and May 3 of this season. The 117.7-mph exit velocity on his shot off Phillips made it his hardest-hit house run to this point by 0.2 mph, surpassing an August 28, 2022 dinger in Milwaukee. For each distance and exit velocity, he’s up there with the massive boys; the homer off Phillips is the majors’ seventh-longest this 12 months behind three from Aaron Judge (a 473-footer from Might 9 being the longest) and ones by Mike Trout, Bobby Witt Jr. and Shohei Ohtani. Cruz’s homer is the fourth-fastest in exit velocity behind two by Giancarlo Stanton (a 119.9-mph shot from Might 8 being the quickest) and one by Ohtani. He’s proper there in taste nation in terms of a few of the new bat tracking metrics, second solely to Stanton in common bat velocity (78.0 mph) and fast-swing charge (74.6%); he’s beneath common when it comes to his squared-up charge (23.1%) — that’s the speed at which he obtains not less than 80% of the utmost exit velocity for that swing — however a good fifteenth in blast charge (16.2%), the speed at which he squares up balls on quick swings.

Cruz’s homer towards the Dodgers was his eighth of the 12 months, and his first since Might 12. The following day towards the Twins, he hit a towering 422-footer, 114.4 mph off the bat. Opposite to whoever known as this one, it didn’t go into the Allegheny, as a substitute bouncing across the higher deck of PNC Park:

As for these aforementioned extremes, on July 14, 2022, in simply the twenty fifth sport of his main league profession, Cruz recorded the quickest throw by an infielder to that time, a 97.8-mph bullet on a groundout. That document fell by the wayside by the hands of Elly De La Cruz last year, with Masyn Winn’s relay throw from Might 6 of this 12 months dialing the document as much as 101.2 mph, although in contrast to Cruz and De La Cruz, he didn’t really make an help. As for the bat, on August 24, 2022, Cruz recorded what nonetheless stands as the hardest-hit ball of the Statcast period, a 122.4-mph single off the correct discipline wall at PNC Park that surpassed a 122.2-mph single by Stanton from October 1, 2017. On Might 21 of this 12 months towards Giants, Cruz collected the 2 hardest-hit balls of the season, first a 120.4-mph single within the first inning after which a 121.5-mph double within the ninth; within the third, he additionally smoked a 116.3-mph double, making him the primary participant ever to document three batted balls of not less than 115 mph in a single sport, in addition to the primary with two of not less than 120 mph:

That three-hit sport occurred amid the aforementioned hunch; Cruz had collected one hit in his earlier 4 video games and would add simply two hits over his subsequent six.

By way of the feasts and famines, Cruz is now hitting .243/.298/.429 for a 102 wRC+, and .239/.301/.441 (105 wRC+) by 158 main league video games general, with 28 homers, 18 steals and a couple of.9 WAR in 655 PA; his 220 strikeouts could be three shy of Mark Reynolds‘ single-season document if he’d accomplished them multi functional 12 months. The majority of his time within the majors got here in 2022 when he performed 87 video games and launched 17 homers with a 105 wRC+ and 1.4 WAR. His numbers this 12 months represent respectable manufacturing for a 25-year-old shortstop, however have been wanting star caliber, and star caliber is the expectation for a participant who positioned eighth on our Top 100 Prospects list two years in the past for pairing 80-grade uncooked energy with an 80-grade arm and plus velocity. Then once more, some slack is so as provided that Cruz was restricted to simply 9 video games final season after fracturing his left fibula in a house plate collision on April 9. Following surgical procedure to stabilize the bone and restore the syndesmosis (the fibrous joint held collectively by ligaments), he was anticipated to overlook 4 months, however he didn’t heal quickly enough to begin a rehab project and return to the majors.

Beneath these circumstances, some rust may very well be anticipated. Cruz stumbled out of the gate, however since Might 1 — proper round midway by the pattern — he’s been far more productive:

Pirates basic supervisor Ben Cherington lately acknowledged the expectation that Cruz might wrestle within the early going, saying, “I feel I’ve already stated or would have stated that if the primary six to eight weeks have been just a little up-and-down for him, that wouldn’t have stunned me coming off of mainly a missed 12 months and a serious damage.” Cherington has publicly stressed that the staff would “simply let him play” by his ups and downs whereas working behind the scenes to assist him enhance.

In late April, Cruz spoke of battling to regain his confidence after final 12 months’s absence, and as of early Might, his surgically repaired ankle wasn’t but again to 100%. Pirates hitting coaches Andy Haines and Christian Marrero have launched some tweaks to his swing with the intention to assist enhance his path to the ball. He’s holding his arms greater, and his stance is extra closed off, along with his legs barely nearer collectively, his physique barely extra upright. There’s a side-by-side GIF here exhibiting the adjustments.

These changes appear to be working, as one of the crucial encouraging points of the above cut up is the decline in Cruz’s strikeout charge. He struck out a hefty 34.9% of the time as a rookie and was even greater in March and April, however he lowered that to 30.9% in Might and is all the way down to 26.7% by seven video games in June. The place he walked simply as soon as for each 5.6 strikeouts in April, he’s all the way down to as soon as for each 3.7 strikeouts since.

The world the place we actually see Cruz’s enchancment — each relative to 2022 and to the early a part of the season — is in his batted ball stats:

Inside that span, Cruz’s common exit velocity trails solely Decide’s 99.2 mph and likewise for his barrel charge, which has almost quadrupled since March/April; his hard-hit charge is seventh inside the similar timeframe. As you may surmise given the will increase in common launch angle and anticipated slugging share, he’s hitting the ball within the air extra usually these days; his general 49.7% groundball charge displays a drop from 57.4% by April to 42.9% from Might 1 onward, along with his general 1.53 groundball-to-fly ball ratio falling from 1.95 to 1.22 utilizing those self same cutoffs.

Although he made some extent of exhibiting that he might go the other way early within the 12 months, Cruz’s present 41.4% pull charge isn’t far beneath his 43.7% from 2022. As with the information above, we’ve seen a dramatic course correction for the reason that early going, with a 25% pull charge from March and April rising to a 55.8% pull charge since. He pulled only one fly ball earlier than Might 1, however has 11 since, with 5 of them going for homers.

The massive subject for Cruz is chasing pitches out of the strike zone. Whereas the story thus far would counsel that these days he’s dramatically reduce down on the chases and is making extra contact within the zone, that’s really not the case, not less than if we’re sticking to the Might 1 cutoff:

Quite the opposite, Cruz is chasing extra usually than in 2022, and solely about one share level much less usually since Might 1 than earlier than that date. He’s swinging at extra pitches within the zone these days… however making much less frequent contact, each in and outdoors the zone (although nonetheless greater than in 2022). His swinging strike charge has gone up, not down.

However that’s only one admittedly arbitrary level from which we are able to measure, a handy one given the calendar and the same pattern sizes on both aspect. After we look at Cruz’s rolling chase charge, we are able to see that he’s gone by durations when he was particularly chase-prone, usually coinciding with drops in manufacturing:

That set of purple spikes close to the center coincides with early Might; on a 10-game foundation, he reached most chase charge on Might 8, and whereas he’s largely reined in that tendency since then, he regressed on that rating proper on the finish of the month.

If it’s not fairly what we anticipated, it’s not less than been offset to a point by a greater two-strike method; by April, Cruz was hitting .176/.228/.189 (21 wRC+) whereas placing out 57% of the time with two strikes, however he’s discovered some energy (.135/.198/.284, 34 wRC+) since then whereas trimming his strikeout charge in such conditions to 45.7%. This counts as progress, nevertheless it’s nonetheless quite a lot of chasing pitches with little success. Cruz is chasing offspeed pitches (changeups and splitters) 48% of the time and breaking pitches (curves, knuckle curves, sliders, slurves, and sweepers) 34% of the time; he’s 2-for-30 with 17 strikeouts in plate appearances that finish with him chasing a breaking ball.

Cruz’s bat-tracking splits aren’t as dramatic as these of his batted ball stats; the massive takeaways I’ll supply are that he’s elevated his common bat velocity (from 77.5 mph to 78.3%), his quick swing charge has elevated by 5 factors (from 71.7% to 76.7%, and his blast charge has improved a contact (from 15% to 17%).

On the defensive aspect, the metrics are a blended bag, which shouldn’t be too shocking given the samples (678 innings in 2022, 502 this 12 months). Statcast faults Cruz for his lateral vary, however he’s improved from -6 to -1 by FRV; DRS and UZR supply a cut up choice, with decline within the former (from 1 to -4) and slight enchancment within the latter (-7.5 to -3.6). His long-term future might not be at shortstop, nevertheless it is smart for the Pirates to maintain him there and hope for enchancment.

For those who’re solely trying on the top-line numbers, it’s simple to overlook Cruz’s good points relative to 2022. And whereas it’s OK to be cautious of any arbitrary endpoint splits, for probably the most half those I’ve proven illustrate that he’s making some actually awe-inspiring contact and is mostly headed in the correct path, in direction of enchancment. Together with Jared Jones, Paul Skenes, and Nick Gonzales, he’s made the Pirates a extra compelling and aggressive staff; at 32-34, they’re second within the NL Central by 6.5 video games and in a digital tie with the Giants for the third Wild Card spot, with 4 different groups simply half a sport behind them. Cruz’s progress solely makes the race that rather more price watching.