Fortunate Aiyedatiwa was the state’s deputy governor till December 2023, when he was sworn in as governor. His claims within the debate revolved round his achievements since.
Aiyedatiwa claimed that his administration had made Ondo one of many most secure within the nation. “As at at this time, Ondo state is being considered one of many most secure and peaceable states in Nigeria,” he said.
What counts as peace?
The governor supplied no information or rating to assist the declare.
“The idea of peace is a broad assertion that must be put into context,” Otoabasi Akpan, professor of historical past of concepts and worldwide safety research at Akwa Ibom State University in southern Nigeria, instructed Africa Examine.
“What sort of peace did he bear in mind? Peace by way of what? The absence of protest? Or is it that the individuals of Ondo state really feel fulfilled? Is it as a result of he’s offering free schooling? Or is it as a result of armed incidents resembling kidnapping and theft have stopped?”
What about safety?
We requested Dennis Des-Dokubo, a former chief of safety to the deputy governor of Bayelsa state, what constitutes safety in a state. He cited protected motion, a low price of kidnapping in comparison with different states, low theft and low police visibility as some indicators.
Nigeria’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) publishes crime statistics. Moses Mathew, a statistical data officer on the company, referred us to their 2017 crime report. However this was earlier than the governor’s time in workplace.
“The 2017 crime statistics report is what we have now. You can use our report or go to the police,” he mentioned. The NBS report grouped crime reported to the police into three classes: offences towards individuals, offences towards properties and offences towards lawful authority.
The information reveals that 134,663 circumstances of crime have been reported nationally in 2017.
The highest three states with the least crimes recorded general have been Kebbi (205), Kogi (282) and Bauchi (386). Ondo was thirty first, with 3,713 reported circumstances.
In 2016, there have been 125,790 circumstances of crime reported nationally. The highest three states have been Katsina (120), Abia (364) and Zamfara (483). That 12 months, Ondo was thirty second out of 36 states, with 3,493 circumstances of crime.
The obtainable police information additionally captured 89 cases of “main crime” in Ondo in 2023, which included homicide, armed theft and kidnapping. No less than 10 states had fewer circumstances. Nationally, 5,647 circumstances have been recorded.
In 2022, when there have been 6,359 circumstances recorded nationally, Ondo had 58. And in 2021 Ondo had just one case reported, towards 3,965 nationally.
Police spokesperson Muyiwa Adejobi has not but responded to our request for extra data on how the information was collected, given the disparities.
No dependable state-level safety indices
Nigeria is ranked in a number of safety indices, together with the Nigeria Security Threat Index, the Global Peace Index, the Stability Index and the National Cyber Security Index.
Nonetheless, there isn’t a state-level safety index obtainable. Prof Abayomi Adebayo, who teaches economics on the Obafemi Awolowo University Ile-Ife in south-west Nigeria, instructed Africa Examine that state-level information was scarce.
“Many states find yourself with sentimental safety indices for self-evaluation propaganda,” he instructed Africa Examine. Within the absence of up-to-date state information, we price the governor’s declare about his 10 month-record as unproven.
A number of governors in Nigeria have previously claimed to run the safest states.
Nonetheless, absolute crime statistics aren’t sufficient to find out how protected a state is, as Africa Examine has regularly found. For instance, evaluating absolute crime figures between areas with out taking inhabitants under consideration distorts comparisons. Doing so for all classes from the NBS’s 2017 crime statistics report makes it tougher.
Specialists have also said that lumping crimes collectively throughout states can masks the truth that sure crimes are extra prevalent in sure areas. – Motunrayo Joel
