OKC Thunder 2024-25 season preview: Finest within the West? Or will younger stars stumble?

The 2024-25 NBA season is right here! We’re breaking down the most important questions, best- and worst-case situations, and fantasy outlooks for all 30 groups. Take pleasure in!

OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER

2023-24 end

Offseason strikes

• Additions: Alex Caruso, Isaiah Hartenstein, Nikola Topić, Dillon Jones, Ajay Mitchell, Alex Ducas

• Subtractions: Josh Giddey, Lindy Waters III, Bismack Biyombo, Gordon Hayward, Mike Muscala

• Complete roster

The Large Query: Are the Thunder actually prepared?

Just one crew had a greater file final season than Oklahoma Metropolis. Just one outscored opponents by more points per 100 possessions. Just one joined OKC by ending within the prime 5 in each offensive and defensive effectivity.

That crew won the NBA championship.

Possibly the Thunder — with what nonetheless ranks because the NBA’s youngest roster — aren’t as near that Celtics crew because the statistical résumé may point out. It’s value remembering, although, that whereas Boston pulverized the Dallas aspect that vanquished Oklahoma Metropolis, Thunder-Mavericks was dead-even across its six games, three of which have been determined by 4 or fewer factors — together with Recreation 6, which P.J. Washington received with free throws after Shai Gilgeous-Alexander received whistled for a foul on a 3-point try with two seconds left.

Which is to say: Regardless of Dallas’ protection grinding OKC’s drive-and-kick sport to a halt, regardless of non-SGA Thunderers lacking nearly 70% of their 3-pointers, and regardless of Washington and Derrick Jones Jr. having the shot-making collection of their lives in opposition to Mark Daigneault’s play-the-percentages defensive scheme, the Thunder have been proper there. After which Sam Presti went out and plugged their largest — solely? — holes.

Out goes Giddey, rendered all however unplayable within the postseason by his offline jumper. In comes Caruso, a greater and higher-volume shooter and a greater off-ball participant who absolutely understands the project of a championship-level position participant — Oklahoma Metropolis’s model, Presti hopes, of Boston touchdown Derrick White.

Even with greater than a half-dozen perimeter gamers in a position to shoot, cross, minimize, set screens and drive closeouts, although, the Thunder nonetheless had a obtrusive weak point on the offensive glass. So: in comes Hartenstein, who hauled in 14.4% of his teammates’ missed pictures in New York final season, the league’s second-highest offensive rebounding rate.

It will get higher: Caruso and Hartenstein additionally occurred to be two of the best defensive players in the NBA final season — steal, deflection and block magnets whose penchant for disruption solely fortifies a swarming protection that forced turnovers more often than anyone else and who ought to additional juice a transition attack that ranked among the league’s best.

OKC has an All-NBA First Staff No. 1 possibility in SGA, who simply turned the ninth player ever to common 30 factors, 5 rebounds and 5 assists per sport with a real capturing share north of .600 — the other eight are both already within the Corridor of Fame or would be the second they’re eligible — and who could be the very best participant on the ground in any sport from October by June. It has two extra dudes who might advantage All-Star consideration as quickly as this season within the ascendant Jalen Williams and transformational stretch huge Chet Holmgren.

It has 9 guys who shot 37% or higher from deep final season — shouts out to Chip Engelland, imported from Texas to work his magic — and don’t be shocked if Hartenstein starts letting them fly, too. With Caruso becoming a member of Luguentz Dort, Cason Wallace, Williams and Gilgeous-Alexander, it has the NBA’s greatest steady of point-of-attack defenders outdoors of Boston. With Hartenstein becoming a member of Holmgren, it has 48 minutes of elite rim protection, plus the flexibleness to play double-big lineups to higher management the glass (and play the now en vogue Size on the Ball with Extra Size Behind protection on Nikola Jokić).

It seems to have the whole lot — and, if a necessity does spring up, Presti can look to fill it by dangling a number of the 17 first-round picks it controls between now and 2031. All that’s left, then, is to show final spring’s shortfall and this summer time’s reinforcements into one other dominant common season and 16 playoff wins.

Youth is never served within the NBA. However then, youth has hardly ever been this friggin’ good.

Finest-case state of affairs

The newcomers perform precisely as envisioned, ensuing within the Thunder fielding top-two items on each ends and proving to be the category of the league from the opening tip. SGA wins MVP, J-Dub and Chet earn All-Star nods, and the remainder of the supporting solid earns Bricktown’s timeless affection. Oklahoma Metropolis returns to the NBA Finals for the primary time since 2012 — and wins the franchise’s first championship because the transfer from Seattle.

If the whole lot falls aside

Progress, it seems, isn’t linear, and a rotation overflowing with 25-and-under sorts stumbles in its try and construct on final season. Final yr’s across-the-board-elite 3-point capturing regresses, emboldening opponents to pack the paint and cramp Gilgeous-Alexander’s fashion; Williams stagnates as a shot creator, unable to maintain the offense afloat when SGA rests. There’s nonetheless sufficient depth to hold OKC by to the playoffs, however the ceiling instantly appears decrease, firmer — and no increased than final yr’s second-round exit.

Fantasy spin

The Thunder’s huge three of Gilgeous-Alexander, Holmgren and Jalen Williams shall be gone after the fourth spherical in most fantasy drafts. Is it value investing in some other OKC gamers after they’re off the board? Final yr, it wasn’t. Josh Giddey’s minutes and position diminished whereas Lu Dort was the next-best Thunder participant, ending 192nd in class leagues. Nonetheless, this yr shall be very completely different, and I am betting that Isaiah Hartenstein (ADP 83) and Alex Caruso (ADP 105) will outperform their ADPs.

I outlined why Hartenstein is certainly one of my breakout centers, however in abstract, his talent set fills a needed void as a rebounder, extra rim protector and short-roll playmaker. Conversely, Caruso is an elite 3-and-D shares specialist who will make defenses pay as a catch-and-shoot menace on the perimeter.

Each gamers have not averaged over half-hour an evening of their careers however rank within the 80-Ninetieth percentiles in factors per shot try (PSA) and assist-to-usage ratio, per Cleansing the Glass. Their excessive IQs, per-minute effectivity and defensive prowess will bode properly in actual life and fantasy. Do not sleep. — Dan Titus

2024-25 schedule

That’s a huge quantity — only 19 teams within the final 10 seasons have received 57 or extra — however it is a huge crew. I’ll take the over. Rumble, younger males: Rumble.