NFL Week 3 picks: Cowboys stun Ravens, drop Baltimore to 0-3; Chargers shock Steelers; Saints roll previous Eagles

I do not normally rush to judgment about any groups after watching them play simply two video games, however guys, I will be trustworthy, I do not suppose the Panthers are going to make the playoffs this 12 months, and I am not even fully satisfied they are going to win a recreation this season. 

Apparently, their head coach agrees with me, as a result of he has determined to BENCH BRYCE YOUNG in favor of Andy Dalton. That is proper, the Panthers are actually making an attempt to avoid wasting their season by turning to Andrew Gregory Dalton. Usually, I’d giggle on the considered that, however Derek Carr, Justin Fields, Sam Darnold, Baker Mayfield and Geno Smith are a mixed 10-0 to date this 12 months, so I am not going to giggle at that or something ever once more. The best way this season goes, there is a 40% probability we’ll get Dalton vs. Gardner Minshew within the Tremendous Bowl. 

Talking of these two, they will really be dealing with one another this week. So who will I be taking? Let’s get to the picks and discover out. 

NFL Week 3 Picks

Inexperienced Bay (1-1) at Tennessee (0-2)

1 p.m. ET (Fox)

It is lastly taking place: The Malik Willis revenge recreation is right here. Though I am undecided we should always name this a revenge recreation as a result of the Titans really did Willis a favor by buying and selling him to a greater group. This might be like in case your partner filed for divorce, however discovered you a Brazilian supermodel so far after the divorce was finalized.

Willis was drafted by the Titans in 2022, however solely ended up beginning three video games for them over two seasons. The Titans ended up giving the beginning QB job to Will Levis, which has been a curler coaster journey to date, however on this case, the curler coaster has no brakes, is headed for a brick wall and the seat belts do not work. 

The Titans are 0-2 this season, however they could possibly be 2-0 in the event that they did not make the identical actual errors each week. In Week 1, they blew a 17-3 result in the Bears, and an enormous cause is as a result of Levis threw arguably one of many worst choose sixes of all time. 

Yikes. 

The Titans additionally gave up a blocked punt in that recreation that the Bears returned for a landing. 

Absolutely, they discovered one thing from Week 1 and would not let these SAME EXACT THINGS occur in Week 2, proper? RIGHT? Flawed. In Week 2, Levis drove the Titans all the way down to the Jets’ six-yard line after which proceeded to make one other inexplicably dangerous mistake. 

Let’s have a look at how Titans coach Brian Callahan felt about that fumble. 

I am not a lip-reader, however I believe I undoubtedly noticed at the least one F-bomb in there. 

As if that is not dangerous sufficient, the Titans additionally gave up ANOTHER blocked punt in Week 2. So if you happen to’re scoring at dwelling, the Titans are actually 0-2 as a result of Levis is chargeable for two of the worst turnovers of the season they usually cannot shield their punter. 

If the Titans can go every week with out giving up a blocked punt and if Levis can go every week with out making a dumb turnover, I really suppose they will win this recreation. The Titans protection does a fairly stable job of stopping the run and it will not be stunning in the event that they go all in on that, which is able to put the sport within the arms of Willis. 

Though I hold mentioning Willis, there does appear to be a small probability that Jordan Love may play on Sunday. I do not suppose he’ll, however I am going to nonetheless be making two picks this week with one accounting for Love enjoying and the opposite assuming that Willis performs. And for the reason that closing rating of each Titans recreation this season has been 24-17, I am going to simply go forward and assume that would be the closing rating this week irrespective of who begins at quarterback for the Packers. 

The choose: Titans 24-17 over Packers (If Jordan Love does not play)
The choose: Packers 24-17 over Titans (If Jordan Love does play)

L.A. Chargers (2-0) at Pittsburgh (2-0)

1 p.m. ET (CBS) 

Out of all of the video games in Week 3, this one intrigues me probably the most, and that is largely as a result of I nonetheless don’t know what to make of both group. The factor in regards to the Steelers is that I am nonetheless not precisely certain how good they’re this 12 months. Sure. they’re 2-0, however they’ve one of many worst offenses within the NFL and the 2 groups they’ve overwhelmed have mixed to win precisely zero video games to date this 12 months. 

Then again, you’ve gotten the Chargers, who’ve gone full Jim Harbaugh (You need to by no means go full Jim Harbaugh). Earlier than the season began, the Chargers determined they have been going to tear up final 12 months’s playbook and implement a brand new playbook that will name for extra operating and fewer Justin Herbert. Often, when you’ve gotten one of many high quarterbacks within the NFL, you do not design an offense that requires him for use much less, however the Chargers have completed precisely that, and IT’S ACTUALLY WORKING. The Chargers dashing assault has carried them to a 2-0 file. 

There are solely 5 groups within the NFL which might be averaging lower than 135 passing yards per recreation by means of two weeks and each of those groups are on that record. We would solely see eight passes thrown on this whole recreation by each groups mixed. 

One different factor these two groups have in frequent is that they’ve had two of one of the best defenses by means of the primary two weeks. The Steelers are giving up simply eight factors per recreation, which ranks second within the NFL, behind solely … yup, you guessed it: The Chargers (Los Angeles is just surrendering 6.5 factors per recreation). 

A part of me needs to foretell that the ultimate rating on this recreation is 8 to six.5, as a result of if any two groups can determine how you can make that occur, it is these two. 

Each of those groups win by operating the ball, however each of their defenses can cease the run, so for me, meaning this comes all the way down to the group that has the higher quarterback. I don’t know who the Steelers might be throwing on the market this week, however I am going to take Justin Herbert it doesn’t matter what. The Chargers QB has a profession file of 18-0 when his protection surrenders beneath 20 factors (19 or much less), and I believe we’ll see that spectacular streak proceed on Sunday. 

The choose: Chargers 17-13 over Steelers

Which picks are you able to make with confidence, and which three must-see underdogs must you lock in now? Visit SportsLine to see which teams win and cover the spread, all from a proven computer model that has returned well over $7,000, and discover out.

Philadelphia (1-1) at New Orleans (2-0)

1 p.m. ET (Fox)

Guys, I will must admit it, I believe I may need been unsuitable in regards to the Saints this 12 months. After they beat the Panthers in Week 1, I simply wasn’t impressed, as a result of it was the Panthers. Heading into Week 2, I assumed they have been going to get a actuality verify in opposition to the Cowboys, however apparently, the Saints do not do actuality checks. As a substitute, they’ve created an alternate actuality the place they’re one of the best group within the NFL and that is the truth we now all dwell in. 

Final week, I mentioned that if Derek Carr was an precise automotive that he’d be a 1989 Plymouth Sundance, but it surely seems he is really nearer to a McClaren and the Saints whole offense runs like a Bugatti. 

Via two weeks, the Saints are on a historic scoring tempo: They’ve totaled 91 factors, which is the fourth most in NFL historical past by means of the primary two video games of a season. They’re additionally simply the fifth group in NFL historical past to attain 44 factors or extra in three straight video games (They scored 48 of their 2023 season finale). Their offense has principally been unstoppable: They’ve scored on 76% of their drives this season (16 of 21), which is an absurd price (It is the best scoring price by any group within the NFL since at the least 2000, surpassing groups just like the 2006 Colts and 2007 Patriots). 

Mainly, the Saints offense is firing on all cylinders, which is one thing you do not normally see this early within the season. Most groups are normally nonetheless making an attempt to work off the rust from the preseason, however within the Saints’ new alternate actuality that all of us dwell, rust does not exist, at the least not for them. 

The Saints offense has been clicking as a result of Carr has been on hearth and since Alvin Kamara has been unstoppable. If you’re dealing with an offense like this, it is good to have a while to arrange, however the Eagles will not have that. They must journey to New Orleans on a brief week after shedding on Monday night time and Philly might be bringing a protection that is surrendering almost 400 yards per recreation. When your protection is that enjoying that badly, the Saints are the final group you need to be dealing with. 

The choose: Saints 34-24 over Eagles

Houston (2-0) at Minnesota (2-0)

1 p.m. ET (CBS)

I do not know what the Texans offensive recreation plan goes to appear to be this week, however I’ve a sense that Stefon Diggs goes to try to be sure that he is an enormous a part of it. Diggs began his profession with the Vikings and this recreation will mark the primary time that he is performed in Minnesota as a member of the opposing group. 

Diggs was with the Vikings from 2015 through 2019 earlier than he pressured a commerce to Buffalo. He was then with the Payments from 2020 through 2023 earlier than he pressured a commerce to the Texans, and I’ve a sense that if he does not get 20 passes thrown his manner this week, he may drive a commerce out of Houston. 

The excellent news for Diggs is that he may really be capable to have an enormous week, and that is largely as a result of the Vikings protection will not be centered on him. The Vikings are going to be far more involved with Nico Collins, who leads the NFL in receiving yards by means of two weeks with 126 yards per recreation (Diggs is averaging simply 35 yards per recreation). 

Diggs needed out of Buffalo as a result of he apparently wasn’t pleased about his position within the offense, despite the fact that he led the group in targets final season. Now, he is caught in a offense the place he virtually actually will not be getting probably the most targets. That being mentioned, the final time Diggs confronted the Vikings got here in 2022 and he caught 12 passes for 128 yards. I do not suppose we’ll see that sort of manufacturing from him on Sunday, however he may get shut, particularly if he spends the complete recreation yelling at C.J. Stroud to throw him the ball on each play. 

As for the Vikings, after beating the 49ers in Week 2, they’ve confirmed that they will play with anybody within the league. Nevertheless, they wanted a blocked punt, two second-half turnovers and a 97-yard landing from Justin Jefferson to beat San Francisco by simply six factors. They’re possible not going to have that many issues go their manner this week, so I will must take the Texans. 

The choose: Texans 24-16 over Vikings

Baltimore (0-2) at Dallas (1-1)

4:25 p.m. ET (Fox)

It is virtually becoming that the Ravens and Cowboys are enjoying one another this week as a result of I am fairly certain that they had the 2 most surprising losses of Week 2, and the losses have been surprising in very alternative ways. The Ravens blew a 10-point lead within the fourth quarter at dwelling, which I suppose is not really all that surprising since nobody is healthier than the Ravens at blowing large fourth-quarter leads.

As for the Cowboys, they bought run out of their very own stadium in a recreation the place their protection forgot how you can play protection. The largest drawback for the Cowboys heading into Week 3 is that they’ve struggled to cease the run. Via two weeks, they’re surrendering a mean of 141.5 yards per recreation on the bottom, and now, they must go up in opposition to a Ravens group that LEADS the NFL in dashing (The Ravens are averaging 168 yards per recreation, which is spectacular when you think about that no different group is even averaging 152). 

Though the Cowboys cannot cease the run, the Ravens protection can be having its personal points. Via two weeks, the Ravens have given up the MOST passing yards within the NFL. Dak Prescott may throw the ball 71 occasions on Sunday. I’ve a sense he is actually going to be incomes his pay verify this week. 

With each defenses struggling, I believe what this implies is that we’ll get old style shootout, and as somebody who loves old style something, I am absolutely anticipating this to be probably the most thrilling recreation of the week. I will not be stunned if this recreation comes all the way down to a discipline objective, which suggests I will take the group with the higher kicker, and proper now, I believe Brandon Aubrey is healthier than Justin Tucker. 

The choose: Cowboys 30-27 over Ravens

NFL Week 3 picks: All the remainder

Jets 20-17 over Patriots
Raiders 20-17 over Panthers
Browns 24-13 over Giants
Bears 19-16 over Colts
Buccaneers 23-13 over Broncos
Seahawks 27-13 over Dolphins
49ers 27-17 over Rams
Lions 30-27 over Cardinals
Chiefs 31-20 over Falcons
Payments 30-20 over Jaguars
Bengals 24-17 over Commanders

Final Week

Greatest choose: Final week, I predicted that the Steelers would beat the Broncos by seven factors, and guess what occurred? The Steelers beat the Broncos by precisely seven factors. When you’ve gotten a rookie quarterback going up in opposition to a Mike Tomlin protection, the prediction virtually writes itself. So how did issues go for Bo Nix in opposition to the Steelers? Glad you requested. 

As you’ll be able to see, Nix bought sacked by T.J. Watt’s shadow. I have never seen a shadow beat up anybody like that since final month once I watched the preview for the brand new Sonic film. 

Am I sucking as much as my Paramount bosses by mentioning a Paramount film? Perhaps, however that is none of your enterprise. Let’s transfer on.  

Worst choose: My worst choose final week was each choose I made. My picks have been so dangerous that I printed out my Week 2 picks and set them on hearth in order that I by no means have to consider them once more. I went 7-8-1 in opposition to the unfold, which was good in comparison with my horrid straight-up picks. I went 4-12 straight-up and I am placing all of the blame for that on cats. I picked three cat groups to win in Week 2 — Bengals, Jaguars and Lions — they usually all misplaced by 5 factors or much less. That is why you must by no means choose cat groups to win. I now hate cats. 

I additionally blame the Giants for not dressing a wholesome kicker. I picked the Giants to beat the Commanders and as an alternative of successful, they went out and made NFL historical past, however not the sort of historical past you need to make. 

I additionally blame the Ravens for blowing a 10-point lead within the fourth quarter in opposition to the Raiders and the Patriots for lacking a discipline objective with 4 minutes left to play that will have put them in an amazing spot to upset the Seahawks. I additionally blame the Colts for not having the ability to cease the run in opposition to a group that was beginning a backup quarterback. 

I believe what I am making an attempt to say right here is that just about EVERY ONE-SCORE GAME WENT AGAINST ME IN WEEK 2. HOW IS THAT EVEN STATISTICALLY POSSIBLE?

Mainly, I ought to have gone 12-4 and that is what I will inform myself that I did as I cry myself to sleep tonight. 

Picks File

Straight up in Week 2: 4-12
SU general: 14-18

In opposition to the unfold in Week 2: 7-8-1
ATS general: 12-17-3

You could find John Breech on Facebook or Twitter and if he isn’t doing a type of issues, he is most likely out shopping for an Andy Dalton jersey that he’ll virtually actually by no means put on.