The glory of regular-season NFL soccer returned final week and, with it, the reminder that all the pieces we thought we knew was mistaken … or at the least totally different.
Remembering that this sport — like all issues — is in fixed flux, Daniel Dopp and I are heading again into the lab to tweak our strategy to the 2024 season.
It was extra fizzle than pop in Week 1, however which means there’s just one method to go:
Onward and upward! — Liz Loza
All odds as of publication time. For the newest odds, go to ESPN BET.
Quarterback props
Jayden Daniels 2+ mixed passing/dashing TDs (-130)
Dopp: The Washington Commanders rookie is already a fantasy soccer rock star. All it took was one week to see his dashing sport skill to know the way harmful this child may be. Heck, it did not even take one week; we knew it popping out of the preseason! Daniels scored a number of dashing TDs in preseason and did not decelerate in Week 1, turning 16 carries into 88 yards and two TDs. Pay attention, I am not anticipating a number of dashing TDs each week, however I may completely see him persevering with to make use of his legs to double-digit carries week in and week out.
In opposition to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers final week, Daniels additionally went 17-for-24 passing for 184 yards. This week, his Commanders draw the lowly New York Soccer Giants and their soft-as-a-cloud protection. Terry McLaurin will get a pleasant improve in Mike Clay’s Week 2 Shadow report, partially as a result of the Giants confirmed little resistance to a Sam Darnold-led passing assault that noticed the Minnesota Vikings rating twice by way of the air and as soon as on the bottom.
Daniels remains to be on the lookout for his first passing landing as a professional, however he will not have to attend for much longer. Do not forget, this can be a man who threw 40 TD passes and solely 4 INTs in his last season at LSU. And whereas we all know he can run the ball, we won’t dismiss his passing skill. Nor can we dismiss his goal-line skill, after garnering three touches contained in the 5-yard line final week. Not solely was that tops on the QB spot, it tied for probably the most throughout all positions in Week 1. Together with his dashing skill, goal-line prowess and a starvation for his first NFL passing TD, I am taking Daniels to hit the over on 2+ complete passing/dashing touchdowns in Week 2.
Operating again props
Najee Harris OVER 59.5 dashing yards (-105)
Loza: Harris appeared contemporary and flourished in Arthur Smith’s offense in Week 1, averaging practically 2 yards after first contact per rush (RB14). The 26-year-old carried the ball 20 occasions, with 1 / 4 of these totes coming within the crimson space of the sphere. He may ultimately cede touches to Jaylen Warren, because the youthful again returns to full well being from a hamstring harm. In the intervening time, nonetheless, Harris seems locked in because the Pittsburgh Steelers‘ lead again. With a line of 14.5 dashing makes an attempt listed, Harris’ quantity figures to stay hearty in Week 2.
Going through a Denver Broncos protection that gave up 5.0 YPC to opposing rushers final yr (and over 100 dashing yards to Kenneth Walker III final week), Harris ought to cruise previous 60 dashing yards for the favored Steelers on Sunday.
Aaron Jones OVER 2.5 receptions (-130)
Dopp: The Vikings are in for a world of damage with the San Francisco 49ers coming to city in Week 2. Even without CMC final week, the Niners crushed the New York Jets in a sport that wasn’t practically as shut because the 32-19 last rating.
That is why I am taking a look at Jones’ receiving-game involvement as a prop this week. The Niners are 4.5-point favorites, and we count on the sport script to look just like that of Week 1: Run the ball, use the clock, depend on their premier cross catchers when they should, however in the end, win the sport by a hefty margin. With the expectation of San Fran working away with this one, the Vikings might want to depend on their cross catchers to attempt to maintain it aggressive.
That is the place Jones comes into play. The previous Packer is a confirmed cross catcher out of the backfield and might affect the sport by way of the receiving sport. Final week, Breece Hall, in an identical scenario to what we count on Jones to be in, had 5 receptions for 39 yards in opposition to the 49ers. We do not care concerning the yardage mark, however we do care concerning the passing-game involvement. I am very a lot anticipating Jones to be utilized out of the backfield because the Vikings do all the pieces they’ll to maintain it respectable.
Jones ran 11 routes final week and performed 53% of the snaps. I might just like the snap quantity to be a little bit greater, but it surely’s not low sufficient for me to fade Jones on this one.
Vast receiver props
1:10
Yates and Dopp rave about Jameson Williams’ fantasy breakout
Yates and Dopp rave about Jameson Williams’ fantasy breakout
Jameson Williams OVER 44.5 receiving yards (-120)
Dopp: Liz deserves all of the flowers for calling her shot on Jamo in Week 1. I used to be hopeful, however she put her confidence to the check, and EVERYONE got here away a winner. Liz, me (as a Detroit Lions fan), Jamo bettors … heck, even Jamo himself after having a profession day with 5 receptions (on 9 targets) for 121 yards and a TD. That is what desires are made from!
In Week 2, I am taking that aforementioned confidence and placing it proper again into Williams. I don’t count on him to have 9 targets in opposition to the Buccaneers (that quantity ought to are available in nearer to 5-7 targets), and I am additionally not anticipating Amon-Ra St. Brown or Sam LaPorta to be as silent as they had been in opposition to the Los Angeles Rams. However even with a doubtlessly decreased workload, Jamo has proven us how explosive he may be with the ball in his arms. That big-play skill coupled with a critically beat-up Buccaneers secondary is giving me severe “let’s simply run it again” vibes.
Williams had three massive chunk performs in Week 1: 36 yards, 52 yards (for a TD) and 27 yards. That is quite a lot of upside for a man whose line is beneath 45 receiving yards. I want I may take a dashing and receiving prop since he is additionally a menace to interrupt an end-around for an enormous achieve, however alas, that does not exist on the time of this writing. Preserve an eye fixed out for it in case it does pop up over the weekend. Nonetheless, at dwelling, in opposition to a weakened secondary, with no Antoine Winfield Jr, and with a boatload of confidence beneath his belt, I am taking Jamo OVER 44.5 receiving yards.
Terry McLaurin OVER 49.5 receiving yards (-120)
Loza: This is a cringy stat: The Commanders are 0-7 ATS of their previous seven video games as favorites. I am not saying Washington is doomed on Sunday. I’m, nonetheless, suggesting that as 1.5-point favorites, rookie QB Jayden Daniels is more likely to put the ball within the air extra this coming Sunday than he did in Week 1.
We now have seen McLaurin produce (4 straight 1,000-yard seasons) no matter who’s beneath middle. We additionally know that Daniels may be productive through the air (he accomplished 67% of his passes thrown 20+ yards downfield in 2023, the perfect of any Energy 5 participant in a season over the previous decade). These two are motivated to get on the identical web page and, fortunately for Washington followers, a matchup in opposition to the Giants may expedite the method.
New York’s secondary not solely allowed the ninth-most receiving yards to WRs (2,916) final yr, but it surely additionally gave up 200 receiving yards to the Darnold-led Vikings final weekend. A 5-60-0 stat line from McLaurin appears nicely inside motive.
Tight finish props
Dallas Goedert OVER 34.5 receiving yards (-115)
Loza: Goedert is the third possibility on an offense that averaged 7.2 yards per try final yr and in addition occurs to be enjoying in a sport that has the third-highest projected level complete for the week (47.5). As 6.5-point favorites, Jalen Hurts and the Philadelphia Eagles most likely will not must air it out, however Goedert will nonetheless transfer the chains.
With A.J. Brown drawing major protection from A.J. Terrell, Hurts may look to Goedert extra often. The Falcons, in spite of everything, seem susceptible over the center of the sphere, having given up the fourth-most receiving yards to tight ends final yr and having simply allowed Pat Freiermuth to transform all 4 of his appears to be like final Sunday. Count on at the least three grabs and 40 yards from Goedert in Week 2.
