NFBC Foremost Occasion Tracker: Week 22 Overview

Ugh. That is the week that we now have been hoping to keep away from all season. One wherein we not solely fail to make any progress in our climb up the standings, but in addition begin to lose our grasp on third place within the league. Accidents, sicknesses and poor efficiency mixed to type a whirlwind of ache. Strap in, it’s going to be a grind over the ultimate 5 weeks of the season.

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Hitting Overview

After what seems like a month’s value of terrific manufacturing from the offense on this group, we began to indicate some chinks within the armor final week as every of the counting stats missed badly. That pattern continued this week because it was simply brutal throughout the board.

Accidents performed a task in our demise this week. Xavier Edwards missed 2.5 video games over the weekend after exiting Friday’s sport with a again problem. Tyler O’Neill missed two video games over the weekend with a finger damage. Willson Contreras broke his finger on Saturday and missed the remainder of the weekend. That helped to contribute to the cringe-inducing whole of simply 270 at-bats. Yuck.

William Contreras continued his current resurgence, hitting .304 on the week with a few runs scored and three RBI. His elder brother Willson was having a pleasant week as properly, hitting .294 with three runs scored, an RBI and a stolen base earlier than breaking his finger as he was plunked on Saturday.

Paul Goldschmidt continues to be a waste of house that we now have no viable various for. He hit simply .125 (2-for-16) with zero runs or RBI on the week, although he was in a position to steal a base. He was additionally benched twice, which could possibly be a pattern going ahead.

Xavier Edwards hit .333 (5-for-15) with 4 RBI and a stolen base in his restricted motion earlier than a again damage sidelined him for a lot of the weekend. Fortunately, it feels like he needs to be able to go early subsequent week.

Ezequiel Tovar had a reasonably down week general, hitting simply .231 with three runs scored. He’s received a seven-game week at Coors Area developing which looks as if an ideal get-right spot for him.

Jose Ramirez did Jose Ramirez issues, even whereas not hitting for common. He nonetheless socked a dinger, stole three bases and drove in three runs. He has been terrific all season.

Tyler O’Neill cranked a solo residence run on Sunday – however that was his solely hit in 11 at-bats throughout per week the place he missed a number of video games with a finger damage. At the least he’s wholesome heading into subsequent week.

Randy Arozarena had his thieving gloves on this week, swiping a team-high 4 bases. It got here with a .143 batting common, three runs scored and only one RBI nonetheless. Want him to start out socking some dingers.

Zero complaints about Jurickson Profar this week. He hit .296 with a pair of homers, 4 runs scored, a team-leading six RBI and a stolen base. Welcome again.

Jarren Duran continued to paved the way as properly, hitting .350 with a team-leading six runs scored, two homers, three RBI and a stolen base. What an absolute monster he has been for us this season.

Kerry Carpenter sat in opposition to a few southpaws, however he nonetheless hit .294 with a homer and three RBI on the week. That’ll play each time.

It was a piecework job at nook infield, however Ty France and Rowdy Tellez mixed to attain 4 runs, drive in 4 runs and hit a homer. That’s greater than acceptable.

Jeff McNeil had a down week and appears to be shedding taking part in time to Jose Iglesias once more. He’s on the watch checklist.

Jace Jung struggled in his first week for us, hitting .182 (4-for-22) with three runs scored and an RBI. He’s within the lineup nearly on a regular basis although and I’m nonetheless assured in his skillset. Could remorse not placing Connor Norby above him on final week’s bid checklist although as Norby socked a pair of dingers this week.

Having a look on the weekly numbers, it isn’t fairly. We got here up brief in runs (-4.3), homers (-3.9), RBI (-9.4) and batting common (-0.018). The one goal that we hit was in stolen bases (+4.2).

Wanting on the yearly numbers, we’re nonetheless working surpluses in runs (+45) and stolen bases (+16). We’re slightly below the quantity in batting common (-0.003) whereas chasing severe floor in each residence runs (-14) and RBI (-71).

Pitching Overview

Alright, optimism is working excessive to start out the week on the pitching facet as we’re lined up for 12 whole begins, whereas sitting Alexis Diaz to suit an additional beginning pitcher into the lineup. With 12 begins, we’re actually anticipating 4 wins at a minimal – and are actually seeking to make up floor there and in strikeouts. One thing like six wins and 60+ strikeouts would actually be preferrred.

The social gathering began on Monday with Jonathan Cannon taking the ball in opposition to the Giants. It didn’t go properly. Cannon pitched six innings, however was saddled with 5 runs on 9 walks+hits whereas hanging out 4 batters. Not precisely the beginning that we had been hoping for.

Josh Hader received into Monday’s sport as properly although, working the highest half of the ninth inning in a tied sport in opposition to the Pink Sox. He then grew to become the beneficiary as Yainer Diaz belted a walk-off homer to finish the sport, giving Hader his sixth victory of the season. He retired all three hitters he confronted, however didn’t report a strikeout.

On Tuesday issues received actually fascinating as we had 4 starters take the hill and hopes had been extraordinarily excessive. It didn’t take lengthy for them to be dashed. Erick Fedde pitched decently in a shedding effort in opposition to the Brewers, giving up two runs on 10 walks+hits over 5 2/3 innings. He struck out simply two batters within the ballgame to associate with the WHIPping that he gave us.

Bryan Sammons wasn’t any higher. Regardless of being staked to an early lead, the Tigers’ southpaw couldn’t cling on – in the end surrendering three runs on seven walks+hits over 4 1/3 frames. Like Fedde, Sammons solely recorded two strikeouts. So not simply poor ratios, however we’re additionally lacking out on the strikeouts that we want. Enjoyable.

Walker Buehler – the eighth and ultimate starter that we selected to throw this week – took the mound in opposition to the Mariners. We could have chosen Tyler Mahle as a substitute, however Mahle landed again on the injured checklist and can in all probability miss the rest of the season. Whammy. Buehler was.. not good. Buehler gave up three runs on seven hits and three walks in simply 4 innings of labor. He struck out only one batter. Ugh.

Fortunately, somebody got here to pitch on Tuesday as Shane Baz delivered an absolute gem in a 1-0 victory over the Athletics – scattering three hits and three walks over 7 2/3 innings of scoreless baseball. He solely punched out 4 batters within the ballgame, however this begin went a good distance towards correcting a few of that early ratio injury.

Our different Rays’ starter delivered as properly on Wednesday as Ryan Pepiot additionally secured a victory in opposition to the Athletics. He did so whereas permitting simply two runs on three hits and a stroll over six-plus innings – hanging out 5 within the course of.

We then turned to our supposed employees ace on Thursday night time, coming off of the worst begin of his profession final week. Corbin Burnes struggled as soon as once more – this time in opposition to the Astros – giving up six runs (5 earned) on eight hits and two walks over his 5 2/3 innings. He didn’t even assist out within the strikeout column with simply two punchouts within the sport. Unacceptable.

On Saturday we turned the ball over to Bowden Francis, who was completely dominant in every of his two begins for us final week. He was even higher this trip – carrying a no-hit bid into the ninth inning in opposition to the Angels and in the end permitting only one run on one hit and three walks in his eight-plus frames. Francis additionally racked up a career-high 12 strikeouts within the ballgame. What an absolute stud this man has been.

So we head into Sunday with 4 wins secured already for the week and 4 starters scheduled to take the hill. Sadly, Baz was scratched from his second begin of the week as he was battling the flu, bringing us down to 3. Two of them – Cannon and Sammons – had been taking over one another, so the win expectation was fairly excessive in that sport.

Cannon didn’t pitch properly – giving up 5 runs on 12 walks+hits in his four-plus innings of labor. Woof. He at the least struck out 4 although. The runs he allowed gave Sammons a shot at a victory although, which the left-hander was in a position to safe after giving up only one run on three hits and a pair of walks over 4 2/3 innings with three punchouts.

Fedde pitched properly in his second begin of the week – permitting only one run on two hits and three walks over six innings in opposition to the Twins – however the Cardinals’ offense was lax with the run assist and couldn’t earn him a victory. He did report seven strikeouts at the least although.

Hader completed the week by closing out the Orioles on Sunday night time to nab our group’s first save of the week.

Wanting again on the choice that we made to sit down Alexis Diaz for the week in favor of an additional starter, we didn’t miss out on something by sitting Diaz. He blew his solely save likelihood on the week when he served up a walk-off two-run homer on Sunday. We additionally didn’t achieve something as a result of Buehler was so poor in that spot. Had we began Justin Verlander as a substitute, we at the least may have gained an additional 5 strikeouts.

Wanting on the weekly numbers, the one goal that we hit was in wins (+1.3). We nonetheless managed to fall brief in strikeouts (-8.7), saves (-2.1) and in each ERA (-0.469) and WHIP (-0.160).

When glancing on the season-long numbers, our solely surplus remains to be in saves (+3). We’re chasing enormous numbers in wins (-14), strikeouts (-103), ERA (-0.61) and WHIP (-0.077).

FAAB Plan

You need to attempt to maintain emotion out of FAAB bidding and positively need to have the ability to dedicate the mandatory time to setting your bids. I’ll admit that this week not solely am I extraordinarily run down after a really irritating week personally, however I’m additionally a bit on tilt primarily based on the failures of our group this week. For the primary time all 12 months, I really feel it slipping away and am nervous about even holding on to 3rd place.

It’s positively not the time to get complacent although. It’s time to place within the work and do something and the whole lot that we are able to to strengthen our group for the ultimate 5 weeks of the season.

As famous above, accidents hit us exhausting this week. Tyler Mahle went again to the injured checklist and is predicted to stay there for the rest of the season or near it. He’s a simple drop. Willson Contreras broke his finger when he was hit by a pitch on Saturday and is predicted to overlook vital time as properly. Dropping elite manufacturing from the catching place isn’t enjoyable and is just about irreplaceable from the waiver wire. I feel Contreras is a drop as properly.

David Fry has been languishing on our roster for precisely such a situation, if one thing occurred to both Contreras brother and we want somebody to step in. The issue, is that for the reason that acquisition of Lane Thomas, Fry’s taking part in time has taken a significant hit. He began simply two video games throughout this previous week and there’s actually no cause to anticipate that to vary going ahead. That implies that Fry needs to be a drop as properly this week and we have to discover a catcher that we are able to slot proper in to play for subsequent week.

Xavier Edwards additionally suffered an damage this week, leaving Friday’s sport with a again problem and sitting out for the rest of the weekend. There’s optimism that he can keep away from the injured checklist although and he’s actually not being thought of as a drop right now.

There are extra potential drops to be discovered although. On the pitching facet, Sammons looks as if a simple drop after utilizing him for his two-start week. The identical might be mentioned for Cannon. Buehler was horrible in his begin and will in all probability be a drop as properly – however he’s lined up for a two-start week subsequent week. The 2 matchups are each unfavorable – the Orioles at residence and the Diamondbacks in Arizona – however with how badly we want wins and strikeouts, we may have to make use of him for these two begins.

On the hitting facet, Ty France is on the roster bubble as properly. The Reds added Dominic Smith this week and he has taken over as their common first baseman in opposition to right-handed pitching, relegating France to a short-side platoon position. He looks as if a drop as properly if we are able to discover a viable substitute.

That’s six comparatively straightforward drops. And some others who could possibly be on the sting. Yikes. That’s actually not a spot that you just wish to be in at this level within the season. Let’s see what’s on the market that might assist our group.

On the pitching facet, Cooper Criswell is lined up for 2 begins for the Pink Sox – taking over the Blue Jays and Tigers. That appears like a robust choice. Brant Hurter is tentatively set to perform as a bulk reliever twice for the Tigers – taking over the Angels and the Pink Sox. That appears viable as properly, particularly as he can in all probability he had for simply $1. Casey Mize regarded very sharp in his ultimate minor league rehab begin at Triple-A Toledo on Saturday and is predicted to return on the finish of August. The previous high general decide could possibly be extraordinarily useful over the ultimate month of the season.

Davis Martin has pitched fairly properly since becoming a member of the White Sox’ rotation. He’s lined as much as pitch twice as properly – vs. Tigers and vs. Mets. Lance Lynn (knee) is nearing his return from the injured checklist and could possibly be a method so as to add strikeouts to the roster. Jon Gray was clobbered by the Guardians in his return to the Rangers’ rotation this week, however he will get a single begin week in opposition to the Athletics that could possibly be helpful. Cole Irvin looks as if he’ll make two begins, but it surely’s about as robust because it will get – on the Dodgers and on the Rockies.

Cade Povich will get a troublesome one in opposition to the Dodgers in Los Angeles this week. He’ll tackle the White Sox the next week although after which would double in opposition to the Pink Sox and Tigers. Most likely couldn’t use him subsequent week, however the two following weeks could possibly be viable. Johnny Cueto and Randy Vasquez may additionally probably make two begins.

So what’s that, like ten whole pitching choices? Now what number of of these are higher choices than Buehler’s double. Precisely. That’s why he has to stay round.

On the offensive facet of the ball, the choices aren’t significantly better. The very first thing that we now have to search out is a catcher. Jacob Stallings and Drew Romo are sharing the work behind the plate for the Rockies and so they’re as a consequence of play seven video games at Coors subsequent week. Romo caught Sunday, so the expectation is that Stalling will begin at the least 4 video games subsequent week. That’s in all probability sufficient for me. The opposite choices are the Tigers’ duo of Jake Rogers and Dillon Dingler, with Rogers anticipated to play 4 subsequent week. Carson Kelly maybe as properly.

So far as common on a regular basis bats go, the pickings are slim as properly. Trevor Larnach has been swinging a greater bat as of late and could possibly be value a glance. Identical factor for a possible reunion with Jorge Polanco. Gavin Sheets has 1B/OF eligibility and is within the White Sox’ lineup most days. Jose Tena has been the Nationals’ common third baseman and has a little bit of energy and velocity. Connor Norby has regarded spectacular since becoming a member of the Marlins. Dominic Smith might be a greater choice than Ty France is as he’s seeing the sturdy facet at-bats there. Leody Taveras could possibly be an choice.

Whereas the choices aren’t terribly thrilling, they’re upgrades over what we’re at present coping with and are definitely worth the swap. Let’s strive to not spend all of our remaining $32 FAAB to make our six additions.

FAAB Outcomes

Alright, let’s see the spoils. Our highest bid on anybody was $5 and most had been greenback days, so it’s in all probability going to be a methods down the checklist earlier than we come throughout one thing that we’ll even have a shot at.

Jasson Dominguez was the highest addition on the week, going to Rob Giese for $20 ($7). I perceive the transfer, however didn’t actually have room for a stash on offense at this stage of the season.

Derek Hill was the subsequent highest bid to Phil Dussault for $14 ($7). Hill is a participant that we had some curiosity in, but it surely was decently far down the bid checklist. Nothing to be involved with or disillusioned about simply but.

Giese additionally added Bo Bichette for $12 ($1). Identical concept as Dominguez, besides I anticipate Bichette to be again with the big-league membership sooner. Not a spot that I used to be this week, however I feel it’s a stable addition. He additionally picked up the subsequent identify, Jon Grey for $10 ($2). Grey was on our pitching lists, as his single in opposition to the Athletics needs to be a pleasant begin and his upside for the rest of the season appears excessive.

The subsequent one we’re a bit saddened by, as Connor Norby goes off the board for $9 ($6). He’s a participant that we had curiosity in final week however prioritized Jace Jung as a substitute. He was additionally our high hitting goal this week. Bah.

Keider Montero was the subsequent man off the board at $8 ($3). He’s received a pleasant double lined up in two weeks, however we weren’t going to get that top on value. One other whammy as Davis Martin went off the board for $8 ($3) as properly. That’s our runner-up bid on that one.

Little interest in Jordan Wicks as the subsequent identify off the board for $8 ($6). Some curiosity in Jorge Polanco at $7 ($3) however not excessive sufficient.

We aren’t within the nearer enterprise, as we’re not even taking part in all the ones that we now have, so Edwin Uceta ($7 to $2) and Tyler Kinley ($7 to $2) had been straightforward passes.

Cooper Criswell was our high goal for subsequent week’s doubles, however we didn’t get to $6 ($4). It’s not trying promising thus far.

A number of extra names down and we hit our first win of the week with Jose Tena for $5 ($2). I like the mixture of energy and velocity, the on a regular basis taking part in time and the twin eligibility. Don’t like overspending by a few bucks, however we’ll take a win.

On the $3 stage, we see our high catching goal – Jacob Stallings – go off the board to Griffin Benger. That one stings.

Passing over a couple of different names that we had some curiosity in, we land on Trevor Larnach for $3 ($2). Simply one other stable outfield bat that might add some energy to the combo. I’ll enable it.

Into the $2 pool, we come away with Gavin Sheets (unopposed) and Casey Mize (unopposed). I’m not thrilled to have gone the additional greenback on every, however I did actually need each of them, so it’s value it on this case.

From the $1 bin we additionally picked up Brant Hurter ($1 to $1 – which implies that one of many two groups above us tried so as to add him as properly). I don’t love that he’s set to perform as a conventional starter as a substitute of an opener on Tuesday, however I do like the talents.

The catcher that we wound up with from the $1 bin was Carson Kelly. It may simply be a one-week factor, we’ll see the place it goes.

So we dropped the six gamers that we needed to maneuver on from – Contreras, Fry, France, Sammons, Cannon and Mahle whereas spending a complete of $14.

Wanting across the league at any potential fascinating drops, the identify that jumps out is Tyler Glasnow. Sadly he could not make it again till the ultimate week of September, so his usefulness might be minimal. Lane Thomas possibly, aside from that it appears fairly bleak as soon as once more.

Wanting Forward

The times are lengthy however the years are brief. There are simply 5 Monday’s remaining this season wherein to set lineups. 5 weeks. We will dash for 5 weeks and at the least maintain onto third place. Let’s get to work.

Beginning out on the pitching facet. We’re at present in ninth place in our league in strikeouts with 1,045. The closest group beneath us is at 1,003. Above us we now have 1,052, 1,060, 1,084 and 1,097. There’s one other 3 times inside 18 strikeouts after that. We in all probability can’t achieve 100 strikeouts over 5 weeks, but when we maximize begins we are able to do some work there.

Wins are a battlefield as properly. We sit in eleventh place with 64 wins. Beneath us are groups with 63, 62 and 62. Above us are groups with 66, 66, 69, 71 and 71. Each single win is essential. Maximize begins.

Saves are a bit trickier. We’re at present tied for the league lead with 67 saves. Behind us there are groups with 64, 62, 57 and 56. The group that we’re tied with has three closers – Andres Munoz, Raisel Iglesias and Mason Miller. Holding that half level with simply Hader and Diaz appears unlikely. The group with 64 has two closers – Seranthony Dominguez and Kyle Finnegan. The group with 62 saves has three closers – Jason Foley, Kenley Jansen and Chad Green. We nonetheless want some saves.

Having a look at ERA, we’re at present thirteenth place at 4.108. The excellent news is that it’ll be robust for us to fall as the subsequent closest group is at 4.479. There’s a 4.095 that we may conceivably catch. The subsequent closest is 3.952. Maximize begins, don’t fear about ratios.

Identical factor with WHIP. We’re in eleventh place at 1.224. The closest behind us is at 1.254. That might be a protracted option to fall. Above us are 1.212, 1.209 and 1.207. Unlikely, however all doable. Nonetheless, maximizing begins looks as if the play right here.

So how can we greatest accomplish that this week? Let’s dive in. We now have 12 lively pitchers on our roster, assuming that Casey Mize returns to start out in opposition to the Pink Sox over the weekend. We aren’t more likely to wish to use that begin, so we’re right down to 11. Want to search out two extra pitchers to sit down.

Walker Buehler had been scheduled for a two-start week, till the Dodgers determined to push him again a day to offer him additional relaxation. We had been skeptical about utilizing him for 2 begins, there’s no method we’re throwing him for one in opposition to the Orioles, he’s out. That will get us to 10.

Ryan Pepiot, Justin Verlander and Brant Hurter all double, in order that they’re in. Hader is a lock. We will’t sit Bowden Francis.

Shane Baz missed his second begin this week because of the flu and it’s unclear when he’ll begin. It’ll both be on the Mariners or vs. the Padres, both method I feel we use him. Alexis Diaz will get a six-game residence week in opposition to the Athletics and Brewers the place his chance of incomes a win is increased at residence. I feel we use him this week.

That brings us right down to Corbin Burnes on the Dodgers (Buehler), Kutter Crawford vs. the Blue Jays (Francis) or Erick Fedde on the Yankees (TBD). It could completely be our luck to start out Burnes and have Buehler throw a gem in opposition to him on our bench and earn a victory. Crawford is a little more interesting with Francis on the opposite facet to extend the win fairness. Fedde has been worse on the highway this season and the Yankees have been killing the ball. Early lean is to sit down Fedde.

On the offensive facet of the ledger, there are not any factors obtainable to realize or lose in runs scored. We now have 912 to guide the league and the subsequent closest is at 858. Identical factor possible goes for stolen bases, as we lead the league with 179 and the subsequent closest have 162 and 161. If we are able to commerce runs or stolen bases for energy in lineup selections, we must always achieve this.

In residence runs we’re in fifth place at 236. Barring something loopy, it’s actually just one level that we’re combating for. The closest particular person behind us has 220. The subsequent particular person forward of us has 239, however above that’s 258.

The class that’s extra of a battleground is RBI. There, we’re in eighth place with 778. The groups behind us have 774, 768 and 762. The groups forward of us have 781, 791, 799 and 803. RBI should be our most important focus in lineup selections.

We’re in fourth place in batting common at .2562. The subsequent closest behind us has .2512. It could be robust to lose floor. Above us we now have .2584 and .2587 that might conceivably be in play.

We’re set now at catcher with Contreras and Kelly. Nothing else we are able to do there.

Goldschmidt will get 4 video games, so if he’s within the lineup on Monday we in all probability give him one other week at first base.

Xavier Edwards is an absolute stud. He has given us a world of stolen bases and runs scored, however he’s additionally an asset in batting common and has been a non-negative in RBI as properly. He additionally will get a collection at Coors Area. If he’s wholesome and within the lineup on Monday, he begins at second base.

Tovar at shortstop and Ramirez at third base are automatics. Identical goes for many of our outfield – O’Neill, Profar, Duran and Carpenter. Arozarena shouldn’t be an computerized, however he’s taking part in the Rays and you already know rattling properly he’s going to need some revenge in opposition to his former group. He’s in as properly.

That leaves us with three spots – CI, MI And UT to fill.

The choices at CI are Rowdy Tellez (three in opposition to the Cubs, one LHP, so possible performs two), Jose Tena (three in opposition to Yankees, two LHP. Tena hits left-handed, however began in opposition to every of the final two LHP he confronted) or Gavin Sheets (1 vs. Tigers, three vs. Rangers). Early lean is Sheets at CI.

At MI, we now have Jeff McNeil (three at Diamondbacks, one LHP, so possible performs two), Jose Tena, or Jace Jung (one at White Sox, three vs. Angels). I’m torn between Tena and Jung on that one.

We will begin each of them although, as I like each higher than Tellez as properly and Trevor Larnach will get two LHP in his three video games and isn’t going to play in these.

So Tellez, Larnach and McNeil are most probably driving the pine, until lineups change issues or Edwards remains to be lacking together with his again damage.

The place we Stand

We entered the week with solely 98 factors in our league. That was 28.5 factors behind Benger on the high, 16 factors behind Gill for second place and 9.5 factors forward of Dussault for third place. We completed the week with simply 95.5 league factors. That’s 26 factors behind Benger on the high and 16.5 factors behind Gill for second. Our lead on Dussault chasing us for third place was trimmed to 1 level on Saturday earlier than falling again to 5 factors to complete the night time on Sunday.

We completed final week in 145th place within the general standings and in 66th place within the CLQ standings.We now have fallen to 172 place within the general standings and 71st place within the CLQ. RIP to our hopes and goals there.

All the focus now’s maximizing factors in our league and doing the whole lot that we presumably can to complete in third place. Something much less can be a whole catastrophe for our season.

As all the time, I’d love to listen to your suggestions on what you consider the article, the group, my choice making, the emotional roller-coaster, and so forth. If you happen to’d like extra insights into the CLQ or why these different two groups are struggling to maintain us going there, let me know. People who have reached out thus far, I can’t let you know how a lot it’s been appreciated. This has in all probability been my favourite column to put in writing within the 12+ years that I’ve been doing this. Simply drop me a line on X (@DaveShovein) and I’d be glad to debate.