NBA Western Convention standings predictions and winner 2024-25: Thunder on prime of very tight convention

Just one factor feels sure within the West this season — chaos.

There are 12 groups — 13 should you consider within the San Antonio Spurs — who count on to make the playoffs however simply eight spots. There isn’t a margin for error, accidents that hold a star out for simply a few weeks might tip the scales, and a few coaches will really feel their seats getting heat early within the season.

The closest factor to a certainty is that Oklahoma Metropolis, Dallas and Denver are going to be superb, the Path Blazers should not, however nearly every part in between shall be bunched up. Let’s break all of it down.

Who’s the favourite to win Western Convention Finals 2025?

Listed here are the present odds to win the Western Convention, courtesy of our companions at Wager MGM (odds to win the title in parenthesis).

1. Oklahoma Metropolis +300 (+500)
T-2. Denver +500 (+1100)
T-2. Dallas +500 (+1200)
T-2. Minnesota +500 (+1200)
5. Phoenix +1200 (+2000)

NBA Western Convention predictions 2024-25

TITLE CONTENDERS

1. Oklahoma Metropolis Thunder
2. Dallas Mavericks
3. Denver Nuggets
4. Minnesota Timberwolves

The one factor I really feel snug about on this whole story is the Thunder to complete with the No. 1 seed — they did it final season, then added two key function gamers in Alex Caruso and Isaiah Hartenstein (even with Hartenstein out until December with a fractured hand, it isn’t going to gradual them a lot).

The following three on this checklist might end in any order and it could be anticipated, they’re all on the identical tier for a motive. With Luka Doncic in Dallas (my MVP pick) and Nikola Jokic in Denver, we all know they are going to be elite. I’ll add that I am much less assured in Minnesota (and virtually knocked them right down to the subsequent tier), I am not offered on the Julius Randle match, particularly come the postseason (however Donte DiVincenzo may make up for that).

FRINGE CONTENDERS (WE HAVE QUESTIONS)

5. Phoenix Suns
6. Memphis Grizzlies

PLAYOFFS OR BUST

7. New Orleans Pelicans
8. Sacramento Kings
9. Golden State Warriors
10. Los Angeles Lakers
11. Houston Rockets
12. Los Angeles Clippers

The fact is 5-12 is so bunched up within the West that this group might end in any order and it could be unsurprising. I predict that 5 video games finally will separate the No. 6 seed crew that avoids the play-in and the No. 11 seed crew that misses the postseason completely. It is going to be that tight.

Phoenix and Memphis are on their very own “Fringe Contender” tier as a result of I consider their ceilings are larger than the remainder of the groups on this group. If Mike Budeholzer can get the Suns to play protection and Tyus Jones works out in addition to a few of us count on on the level, a Phoenix crew with Olympians Kevin Durant and Devin Booker are legit contenders (it is largely well being considerations, and final season, that hold them out of the highest tier). Memphis was the No. 2 seed and a crew on the rise for a few seasons till it was desiccated by accidents a season in the past, if Ja Morant returns to type and Zach Edey can maintain down the paint, this could possibly be a top-four crew within the West.

Each crew left on this group has quite a lot of expertise however faces tough questions: How does New Orleans look enjoying small with Herb Jones as a beginning middle? Can Sacramento get sufficient stops to win capturing a lot from the midrange? Who’s the Warriors’ second shot creator after Stephen Curry? Is J.J. Redick as much as the duty with the Lakers (and may they get one other comparatively wholesome season from LeBron James and Anthony Davis)? How huge a step ahead will all of the youth in Houston take? Is a return to a heavy dose of James Harden going to work for the Clippers (and what number of video games does Kawhi Leonard play)?

HOPEFUL PLAY-IN TEAMS

13. Spurs

Victor Wembanyama could also be sufficient to get the Spurs to the play-in on his personal, and having Chris Paul as a moderately bossy mentor shall be good for this younger crew. They’re able to making the play-in, particularly if Stephon Fort steps up like a few of us consider he can, however there are quite a lot of good groups in entrance of them.

LOTTERY BOUND

14. Utah Jazz
15. Portland Path Blazers

Utah’s not a nasty crew, particularly with Lauri Markkanen on the 4 — he’s an underrated participant — however they lack the depth to problem on this West and can pivot towards the lottery in some unspecified time in the future this season. Portland has already signaled its intentions, however will probably be attention-grabbing to see how their wealth of younger expertise begins to develop and who will emerge as an actual a part of the long run for the Blazers.

WESTERN CONFERENCE PLAYOFF PREDICTIONS

First Spherical

Thunder over Kings
Mavericks over Pelicans
Nuggets over Grizzlies
Suns over Timberwolves

Semi-Finals

Thunder over Suns
Mavericks over Nuggets

Western Convention Finals

Thunder over Mavericks

NBA FINALS PREDICTION

Celtics over Thunder

Selecting the Celtics feels boring and secure, however they’re the one crew that has answered sufficient questions for me to really feel snug deciding on them. Nonetheless, if Kristaps Porzingis (or one other key participant) will not be wholesome, a crew like New York or Philadelphia might take their place within the Finals.

I really feel extra assured within the Thunder taking a step ahead and popping out of the West — though Dallas returning to the Finals wouldn’t be a shock, the Mavs upgraded this offseason — however I do not see anybody from the West beating a wholesome Celtics crew. Not this season, anyway.