NBA Team Win Totals and Odds in East: Best Bets as Celtics Look To Beat 60 Win Mark Again | Over/Under Picks for Each Team

Although no bet can ever be considered risk free, Eastern Conference over/under betting represents one of the more achievable options in 2024-25 over/under market. Most people try their hardest in Western Conference; no one cares so much in East. At our conference, there are four clearly delineated tiers to provide us with some sense of direction: We also know this knowledge has spread into the market place. Here, however, it would likely be wiser to utilize our knowledge about team pricing to gain some advantage and start bargaining earlier on in our search process. Assuming, for instance, that Eastern Conference playoff teams will possess slightly better records than their Western Conference counterparts due to playing against weaker competition, we can make some assumptions regarding over-under projections using these Eastern Conference over-unders at Caesars Sportsbook using these tiers as our basis. *Pythagorean Wins are calculated based on point differential.
Boston Celtics 2023-24 Wins642023-24 Pythagorean Wins692023-24 Win Total Line58.5The Pick: Under 58.5This pick could make me look bad; Boston won 64 games last season while in truth they were much superior than their opponent Boston. I predict an under of 58.5. Their point differential suggests they played like a 69-win team and secured the No.1 seed months before playoffs even started, without going full throttle all season long. But repeating such success seems highly improbable. Only two teams in NBA history have achieved back-to-back 64-win campaigns: Michael Jordan’s Bulls and Stephen Curry’s Warriors are the only two that ever did it consecutively, though only Jordan had top-25 net ratings during consecutive campaigns (rather than just once). The Celtics placed fourth among teams last season when it comes to net rating; only these two have ever accomplished such a feat! Reaching 59 wins consecutively can be extremely rare. Since Stephen Curry’s Warriors achieved it between 2015-17, no other team has hit this mark; however, Milwaukee Bucks hit it twice before their season was suspended due to COVID; their star player Giannis Antetokounmpo won MVP both times! This pattern stands out even among our relatively limited sample. Stephen Curry and Michael Jordan each won multiple MVPs; no such players exist on the Celtics. For any team to achieve such greatness as winning 59 games requires multiple factors coming together at once — it takes more than simply quality players; everyone must remain healthy throughout. All players need to shoot at or near career-best levels and want to win that many regular-season games instead of simply coasting into the postseason – although that takes an element of luck; Boston already started this season without Kristaps Porzingis on its roster. That number becomes especially impressive when considering that Al Horford is 38 and there are still front court concerns, although Xavier Tillman remains sorely undervalued. While the Celtics might still be considered one of the top teams in NBA, or at least their Eastern Conference favorite status might make them favorites here; but we don’t measure them by that criteria alone. As with any regular-season team, I anticipate some regression from New York Knicks under Tom Thibodeau – I expect 50 wins, 55 Pythagorean Wins and 55 Win Total Line wins during 2023-24 (Win total line = 53 1/2); my pick would be over 53 1/2 as this has happened three out of the four seasons in which his teams have gone over their projected win total line 53.5 Thibodeau has managed his New York teams to outperform preseason projections over his entire tenure there, winning 28 more games than expected in terms of preseason projections. Thibodeau’s Chicago Bulls teams underperformed during those last three seasons due to Derrick Rose injuries; these years can only be understood within their context. Chicago went 105-80 without Rose in those seasons, which could certainly qualify as exceeding expectations. While you could argue Thibodeau’s tactics wear on teams when postseason arrives, their effectiveness during regular seasons cannot be denied. No coach in basketball plays their top players as often, or with as much enthusiasm. No team out-efforts his teams; they don’t leave wins on the table. His teams never leave anything behind either. In terms of depth management, however, this question primarily centers around redundancy: Mikal Bridges and OG Anunoby each perform similar duties on offense and defense respectively. When one goes down, the other acts to mitigate losses. Precious Achiuwa may not compare favorably with Karl-Anthony Towns, but his shooting ability allows defenses to keep playing within limits; losing Towns would not force New York to drastically modify their playstyle. But after trading away both Towns and Bridges, this roster has become quite thin. They currently rely on six reliable rotation players – Towns, Bridges, Anunoby, Jalen Brunson Josh Hart Deuce McBride. Lose two and suddenly it all becomes uncertain. So long as they stay healthy, the Knicks should be an intimidating regular-season force under Thibodeau and with their roster likely to compete for one of two playoff spots this year. One offensive ranking equals one offensive powerhouse: Philadelphia 76ers2023-24 Wins: 472023-24 Pythagorean Wins472023-24 Win Total Line53.5The Pick: Over 53.5You might be wary about taking Joel Embiid over, so let me tell you it doesn’t need to be that hard! But just remember this – don’t hesitate – make that call on over-53.5 now. Consider this: since the start of 2017-18 season, Joel Embiid-led teams have won 62.5 percent of regular-season games since its start – that includes any missed matches by himself – totalling more than 51 wins out of an 82 game schedule based on past patterns for his health and injury concerns. If these patterns continue, chances are Embiid will wind up winning this range too. Therefore, this question boils down to one: Do you believe this team possesses enough of an edge over an average Embiid roster to bridge that three-win deficit? My response would be yes as their raw roster quality speaks for itself. Embiid fits seamlessly with Tyrese Maxey and Paul George as a three-star lineup, complementing them without competing or hindering each other in any way. Each player brings something distinct yet complementary; none do what others are doing and there is no interference among themselves. Maxey and Embiid excelled at pick-and-roll play last season, leaving defenses struggling to contain them due to the speed difference between them. If you take over this team’s management, betting on Maxey as much as on Embiid should pay dividends; as Maxey is likely the youngest member and will provide stability even when one or both is injured; his shot creation ability should help stabilize Philadelphia even during his absence.
Given how costly their top players are, their roster also exhibits remarkable depth and redundancy – with Kelly Oubre, Caleb Martin, Eric Gordon and French Olympic hero Guerschon Yabusele providing usable wings. Jared McCain would be an outstanding first-round selection; Andre Drummond may not be perfect but is uniquely equipped to serve as Joel Embiid’s backup because of all his experience as a starter; even at this late point in time he could serve as a spot starter if necessary. KJ Martin just averaged approximately 11 points and 11 rebounds as a starter for the lowly Bulls last season in 10 games he started, going 6-4 in those contests. K.J. Martin’s contract is designed for midseason upgrading purposes only and should therefore be seen as potentially valuable assets to any trade partner who might wish to acquire him during that period. I recommend considering any potentially profitable bet on this team aside from selecting Oklahoma City as the winner in terms of overall record (though division or No. 1 seed swings can certainly make this team relevant in your picks). A truly competitive version could win 60 games this year alone! The median version will still hover in the low 50’s.The Milwaukee Bucks2023-24 Wins 492023-24 Pythagorean Wins 482023-24 Win Total Line 50.5I am picking against Milwaukee due to one main factor – they are too old. Old teams typically suffer due to age related decline and injuries that accompany age. I believe they will eventually drop below this number and my pick for them would be under 50.5. Postseason performances could bring them back, but regular-season over bets do not fit their gameplan. Brook Lopez, for instance, only started 60 or more games at 36 and this has taken its toll; playing an aggressive position such as center requires physical conditioning at that age and may take its toll. Lopez underwent significant back surgery only three years ago. Meanwhile, Khris Middleton only appeared in 88 games over two seasons due to being carefully limited by Milwaukee, who also performed surgical procedure on both ankles. Damian Lillard has drawn much speculation this season after arriving in Milwaukee and seemingly returning to form. At 34, only eight point guards have made All-Star teams at this age; reduce it down to 32 years of age, and that number more than doubles to 17. At age 45-48, younger star point guards usually begin their decline. Even though Lillard appears more comfortable under Doc Rivers and will benefit from a full season under him, we shouldn’t assume he remains physically the same player that was seen with Portland. Remember also, Mike Budenholzer had three out of the past four underachieving seasons as head coach of their franchise. Budenholzer teams typically excel during the regular season. There’s little indication that they view those first 82 games as priorities; minimum-salary signings have proven quite successful thus far – though Gary Trent Jr is capable of starting shooting guard duties despite their modest salaries. Malik Beasley wasn’t enough, either; Milwaukee also needs someone on its perimeter who can bring about defense; Delon Wright may fit this role, though possibly in a lesser bench role; Taurean Prince can play forward and is great value but not exceptional in other regards. Giannis Antetokounmpo, soon to turn 30, should still inspire more fear than any Eastern Conference player this postseason if you wish to worry about him and his Bucks team, however the regular season could prove unpredictable and unpredictable for Antetokounmpo’s performance may prove disappointing compared to expectations. Cleveland Cavaliers (2023-24 Wins: 48, Pythagorean Wins 48 and Win Total Line 48.5, My Pick is Over 48.5 This bet has always been one of my top choices and never lets me down! Cleveland would have reached this total last season had they not tanked the season finale; then losing all three key players for at least 25 games due to injuries or suspensions. They made an upgrade at coach by hiring Kenny Atkinson; his track record with Jarrett Allen at Brooklyn shows his effectiveness with this roster. Cleveland boasts impressive continuity despite a coaching change; all 12 of their most-utilized players from last season have returned. Cleveland has posted three consecutive top-seven defense performances, with Allen Mobley serving as an elite rim protector while Evan Mobley provides additional perimeter coverage. They ranked eighth in offense when Donovan Mitchell and Darius Garland were both generally healthy – something which makes sense intuitively. With two All-Star level creators leading your offense, your baseline on offense should be quite high – and since then the Cavaliers have substantially enhanced their surrounding shooting percentages. Their road map for improvement here is straightforward. Stay near the top ten while staying within the top five on defense, like this team typically does, and you are going to win many games. Though in a playoff format you might have some reservations with this roster – Garland and Mitchell don’t complement each other on offense well at all! Mobley and Allen actively interfere with each other on that end of the floor, and justifying Garland as an important contributor defensively when he doesn’t possess primary ball-handling responsibilities on offense can be tricky; but we aren’t discussing playoffs here – weakness are an asset on any team, including this one. Regular season success relies heavily on team strengths – this one having numerous them. Short them in April. Bet them today at +200 to win Central as well. Orlando Magic: 2023-24 Wins 472023-24 Pythagorean Wins 472023-24 Win Total Line48.5 If Orlando can once more become one of the top three defensive teams, their win total line should probably fall somewhere close to this number. The selection: Under 48.5 Orlando’s top-three defense relied heavily on Jonathan Isaac; history tells us not to count on this player for success. Last season, Isaac helped make the Magic more than 10 points per 100 possessions better defensively when on the floor compared to when he wasn’t present; yet prior to last season he only played 147 regular season games over six seasons! By all means have optimism regarding Isaac staying healthy; just don’t put all your bets on that happening!
The Magic are only succeeding on defense so far this season; last season they finished 22nd in offense and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope may provide some assistance; but that won’t completely solve their ball handling woes as this team relies heavily on two rookie forwards to create shots for most of its shots. Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner are outstanding players, yet would benefit immensely from having at point guard an average-starter level dribble penetrator/shooter who could also penetrate and shoot like Jalen Suggs showed during college basketball. Orlando Magic2023-24 Wins472023-24 Pythagorean Wins502023-24 Win total line47I am confused about this line; I don’t understand it completely but think my pick should be Over 477.5 Tyrese Haliburton missed most of last season with injury while Pascal Siakam played half his season for Toronto… yet still managed to come within half of this win total… making this still a relatively young roster! Only four players on their entire roster possess more than four years of NBA experience; any regression from Siakam or Myles Turner should be offset by growth from younger players. Last season, Indiana used this formula with great success – they finished as No. Indiana led all NFL offenses on the day Haliburton got hurt and they still finished in 22nd position from when Siakam arrived until season’s end – more than enough if your offensive performance is as powerful. Don’t need both Haliburton and Siakam at full strength this year for it all to work, though only got half-season each last season; let’s assume 65 full-strength games from both. That should give Miami Heat plenty of momentum going into next week to pick up that last win they need for total success in 2023-24, the lowest total ever won at 47 wins over 46 wins since 1990-91 (Pythagorean Wins 46/2023-24 Win Total Line 46/45.5The Pick: Under 45 Jimmy Butler is so focused on this regular season that he even skipped media day wearing an amusing hairdo! Thought this might be good news for Butler, but to suggest that he wouldn’t miss any games this season seems somewhat unlikely. After all, it wasn’t like he was just simply not attending his previous games without explanation; injuries had an impactful role to play too and at 35 he has experienced injury issues before now. Sure, Pat Riley may manage some of the smaller injuries that crop up throughout a season without missing too many games; but at his age it becomes likely he suffers one of the bigger injuries which threaten a season’s viability. Even though some might view missed games as detrimental or unfair to Pat’s legacy; they serve a useful function nonetheless. Management by age can often be the more prudent path. There’s plenty of “over” logic here if you are searching for it: Tyler Herro missed half the season last year while Terry Rozier spent half his season playing in Charlotte; Nikola Jovic and Jaime Jaquez are relatively promising young players; Duncan Robinson’s overall offensive prowess has improved considerably and now more than just shoot threes!
Not that any version of this team has enjoyed sustained offensive success: They haven’t produced a top-10 offense since 2020 – and that includes their 2022 No. 1 seed season! Last season, they finished 17th despite limited access to Herro and Rozier during both of their minutes of playing time. Regardless, none of those minutes caused anyone in Miami much excitement or anticipation of what lay ahead for either player during either half. As has often been true over the last five years, when it comes to offense, Miami Heat are most successful when Butler is on the floor and playing. He adds much-needed spark that helps the Heat stay competitive against opponents when sitting. Butler turns 35 later this month. No hairstyle could convince one that Bam Adebayo had played 75 games this season and this roster has seen defensive talent dissipate since. Bam is considered an elite Defensive Player of the Year candidate. Not to forget he’s only one player and asking him to consistently bring forth top-five defenses is somewhat unrealistic given all of the players around him. Atlanta Hawks (2023-24 Wins 36/2023-24 Pythagorean Wins 352023-24 Win Total Line 36.5The pick: Under 366.5 I have difficulty picturing Atlanta’s chances of improvement post-Dejounte Murray trade; Atlanta had three reliable shot creators last season but now only have two due to one being traded to New Orleans for Dejounte Murray. Bogdan Bogdanovic is an injury-prone 32-year-old while Trae Young may be underrated as a source of team offense; when playing alongside shooters and athletes in similar lineups with Young as their primary creator almost invariably thrive. But where have all these shooters gone this season? Atlanta will need to devote most of its forward minutes to unproven shooters like Dyson Daniels who’s more of a ball handler and Zaccharie Risacher who may or may not turn into reliable shooters. Today he’s just another rookie from an unimpressive draft class – but most rookies from any draft class tend to struggle upon entering their teams. Jalen Johnson remains an emerging overall player; we shall see just how much spacing he provides as time progresses. De’Andre Hunter could potentially be moved for financial considerations; without his shooting skills and strong, Young-led offense this team will struggle mightily and cannot hope to make up any offensive losses on defense. Young has never led an NBA defense capable of even approaching league average, which suggests his young squad may struggle significantly this season; given their roster turnover and probable underperformance on defense last season (they ranked 27th), that seems about right. Atlanta was stronger without Young in 2016, thanks to Murray’s shot creation. With him on board, they won’t be able to score when Young sits and stop anybody no matter who steps onto the court. Toronto Raptors2023-24 Wins252023-24 Pythagorean Wins232023-24 Win Total Line29.5The Pick: Over 299.5Ignore last season’s negativity as much as possible and look ahead toward this season. They had been tanking to preserve a protected pick. Once that obligation expired, however, their choice to tank is now entirely theirs; though considering their relative talent against that of bottom teams in the East it likely wouldn’t make much of a difference anyway; now is probably best time for things to play out organically and expect decent Raptor performance when doing that.
RJ Barrett performed admirably as an import from Knicks to Raptor in 32 games as an Atlanta resident, posting 55-39-63 shooting and an improved three point shot total. If his numbers hold, while also improving at the line he may make an All-Star case. Immanuel Quickley experienced some decrease in two-point efficiency upon his transition from reserve to starter status; however, this was made up by increasing 3-point production without negatively affecting efficiency in that department. Assuming he does better in his second season as a starter – which seems reasonable given his age and what the Raptors could accomplish without actively trying to lose – then you have another capable starting player here. Yes, some key members from Toronto’s 2019 championship squad may no longer be around; yet one more capable starter exists here. There’s also no longer any doubt as to where problems with that core lie; actual centers and shooters have now arrived on board; no, Jakob Poeltl, Gradey Dick and Kelly Olynyk don’t compete for championships as major roles – yet these legitimate NBA players serve their needs within our rosters. These moves alone should keep this team competitive with Play-In contenders, especially given that Toronto still carries an additional draft surplus thanks to the Siakam trade as well as $40 million worth of expiring non-essential contracts like Bruce Brown, Chris Boucher and Davion Mitchell’s contracts that don’t impact core operations of their roster. Masai Ujiri can leverage Barrett, Quickley, and Scottie Barnes into another win-now trade or at least bring on another younger player for Masai to use to augment that core group. Charlotte Hornets: 2023-24 Wins212023-24 Pythagorean Wins152023-24 Win Total Line29.5The Pick: Over 29.5LaMelo Ball has often been described by critics as more of an act than an effective player, winning 44.5% of his games so far in the NBA. At his best, Brandon Miller would likely win Rookie of the Year honors while Mark Williams has potential All-Defense center status. There’s certainly plenty of young talent within these rosters who could push this figure further up; that alone would put this line further above. Grant Williams quickly established himself as an effective rotation forward after being released by an offense-oriented Mavericks squad that did not seem fond of him. Dallas may still face legitimate concerns with regards to Charles Lee being their inaugural coach and with Williams still having been dealt with so harshly for some reason by Boston during this season. Ball and Williams remain health risks; even Miller had yet to show that his promising debut year wasn’t just hype. These things take time. Still, don’t undervalue the importance of changing ownership here. Michael Jordan made the Hornets among the least expensive teams in most ways in NBA. Though their new ownership group has yet to implement significant roster changes or revamp his lineup completely, just having average owners around will result in organizational improvements which cannot easily be measured. The Hornets may now have all of the talent in place to be considered a legitimate franchise, and 30 wins seems a reasonable benchmark for them to hit. Chicago Bulls2023-24 Wins392023-24 Pythagorean Wins372023-24 Win Total Line28.5The Pick: Under 28.5I am torn here between this team’s apparent incentive and their unpredictable history – I prefer going under 288.5 for now. The Bulls never effectively tank. Even during their disastrous post-Jimmy Butler years, they never finished in the bottom three or bottom five in any season and rarely fell below fifth place in attendance. Their ownership group does not like fielding teams that perform poorly – tickets to be sold come first!
DeMar DeRozan may be more well-known among them; however, Zach LaVine will more than make up for some of what DeRozan lost there. Alex Caruso will likely be missed more keenly because not only was he their top defensive asset; but also provided them with incredible offensive options as a point guard and playmaker. Caruso was their go-to player over recent seasons; while Patrick Williams may show potential, Caruso made their defense viable and kept opponents honest. An individual player who could effectively cover every player who was not Joel Embiid or Nikola Jokic allowed for smoother team integration. Without Caruso on defense, the Bulls stand a good chance at becoming NBA’s worst defense this year. Josh Giddey will produce numbers as starting point guard; though whether that translates into wins remains to be seen; Giddey doesn’t tend to create advantages for himself in games either way. He provides his help for his teammates, but mostly during transition. To become anything other than just another decent regular-season starter in Oklahoma City, LaVine must become more prolific at making threes. If that does not occur, many mouths need feeding; can LaVine play his game if nobody is guarding Giddey off of the ball? Who else do the Detroit Pistons need on offense besides Coby White and Giddey? Without White being able to score, all the same issues from Oklahoma City remain. For Detroit’s 2023-24 record: 14 wins; Pythagorean wins 17; Total win total line 25.5The pick: Under 25.5Generally in modern NBA basketball if someone cannot shoot then scoring will become impossible and vice versa. Seven of last season’s Top-10 Offenses finished within the Top Ten in 3-Point percentage, including Ausar Thompson who shot 18.6% as a rookie. But not so the Pistons. No way. Not at all! Ausar Thompson shot just 18.6% on threes when rookie-ing for them last season – something which shouldn’t even be possible given all their talent on hand and very limited shooting ability (like everyone else did, that is). Ron Holland finished at 23.9% in the G-League while Jaden Ivey and Cade Cunningham, as the primary ball-handlers, proved themselves as some of the finest shooters; together they converted 34.5% of their shots over an extended period during last season – which may help explain their success on offense as a unit. Detroit is building around these players; those enlisted as contributors on this front. Who were brought in as help on this matter? Tobias Harris and Tim Hardaway Jr. both possess league-average shooting skills but prefer trying to create their own looks rather than spacing for others – neither are ideal examples of low maintenance players that young ball-handlers need in order to develop and flourish as ball-handlers. They’re searching for their own buckets. Perhaps one day the Pistons will become good defensively; Klay Thompson could become one of their stars at that end. Yet last season they finished 25th out of 30 teams in terms of defense; thus far none of their offseason additions has made much of a difference on that front. Washington Wizards 2023-24 Win Total Line 20.5Playoff Future: Under 20.5
Tyus Jones will experience a career-defining season this season in Phoenix. Not only is he getting the nod as starting point guard in an elite offense, but we will see just how low they Wizards go without him. Jones wasn’t necessarily one of the NBA’s superstars but was still considered an effective point guard in Phoenix. Malcolm Brogdon is also in great physical shape but remains extremely vulnerable due to ongoing health concerns. While the Wizards have added lottery pick Bub Carrington at guard, Jordan Poole will continue as their starting power forward this season after briefly trying out bench work during training camp. Deni Avdija had become their best player last season but is now part of Portland Trail Blazers roster. Alex Sarr went scoreless on 15 shots in a Summer League game but is expected to play an influential role due to his draft position alone. Saddiq Bey, however, will likely miss all or most of this season while recovering from a torn ACL injury. Nothing to like here; these Wizards are simply in an early-stage rebuild mode and throwing everything against the wall until something sticks. Last season was far from impressive for Washington; aside from Bilal Coulibaly’s relatively promising rookie campaign. Be ready for another losing year Washington! When teams tell you who they want to become, always believe them and pick an under 19.5 total win total line win total line total line line pick as their prediction. The Nets haven’t just fallen on hard times; they made the active decision to be terrible. Trading away draft capital to gain control of first-round picks back in 2025 and 2026 — picks I ranked Nos. 2 and 5 among all traded picks — was their strategy in becoming bad. No, that trade wasn’t made with an eye toward finishing seventh overall in the draft, it’s an example of when teams prepare themselves to be awful – such as having the worst record in the NBA! I am unconcerned about their offense as such. Cam Thomas led all players with more minutes played (1,984) than passes made (1,916) last season; Ben Simmons on the other hand passed 10x more often (749 times total) than shot it (74). At its best, if they did the fusion dance they’d be the ideal player; but that depends on whether or not they can stay on the court. Defensively will prove challenging; moving Mikal Bridges helps in that respect; Nic Claxton remains valuable as is Dorian Finney-Smith while Cam Johnson can contribute on both ends. But no team has more incentive to be bad than Brooklyn, who have shown they want nothing other than to lose every game this year. I fully trust them to use any means necessary, whether through prolonged injury recoveries or trades during the season, to push any assistance away and turn their season into one to remember. They didn’t pay the Rockets extra money just so they’d win 30 games; rather they made no secret about wanting to be awful so bettors should embrace that instead if betting them.
Although he did not wish to admit it publicly, Dr. Keppeler is certainly no fan of modern life either, having become infected by it while studying medicine at Oxford. He would not dare go anywhere near it even as an undergraduate!