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My first guess: Early picks for NFL Week 1

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September 2, 2024

The 2024 Week 1 NFL schedule is stacked with some nice matchups.

The primary week slate options each a Thursday and Friday evening sport because the defending champion Kansas City Chiefs (-3, 46.5) kick off the season in opposition to the Baltimore Ravens on Sept. 5. The NFL motion then heads to Brazil for a sport between the Green Bay Packers and Philadelphia Eagles on Sept. 6.

The Detroit Lions have an NFC divisional spherical rematch in opposition to the Los Angeles Rams on Sept 8 and the slate concludes with the probably return of Aaron Rodgers, because the New York Jets face the San Francisco 49ers on Sept. 9 on Monday Night time Soccer (ABC/ESPN+).

Our betting analysts appeared on the early Week 1 strains to seek out some worth earlier than the strains transfer nearer to the video games.


Joe Fortenbaugh’s first guess: Baltimore Ravens (+3) vs. Kansas City Chiefs

A number of well-respected sportsbooks — each in Vegas and offshore — have already adjusted south to Chiefs -2.5 because of an inflow of subtle Ravens cash. With Baltimore +3 (-120) nonetheless obtainable at ESPN BET, I am getting down now earlier than the important thing variety of “3” disappears.

Since taking up as head coach in Baltimore again in 2008, John Harbaugh is an totally unthinkable 12-4 straight-up and in opposition to the unfold in Week 1. That 75% hit fee jumps to 85.7% (6-1 SU and ATS) from 2017 to current day, with a bonkers +18.9 cowl margin. Search for newly acquired working again Derrick Henry and the Baltimore speeding assault to maintain the Ravens offense on the sphere… and Patrick Mahomes off it.

Tyler Fulghum’s first guess: Los Angeles Rams (+3.5) at Detroit Lions

I do not know if this may transfer down to three, however in case it does, I need the additional half level on the Rams. Sean McVay has been an absolute killer in Week 1 (7-0 ATS). The Rams simply may have received that Wild Card sport at Ford Subject in January. This ought to be one other tightly contested, coin flip sport. Having greater than a subject objective head begin on the scoreboard appears very invaluable to me.

Ben Solak’s first guess: Dallas Cowboys +3 (-120) at Cleveland Browns

I perceive that the Browns have been 5-1 in Deshaun Watson‘s six begins final season, however he was removed from spectacular in that restricted time. With out Nick Chubb within the backfield, Watson might want to carry the Browns offense in opposition to what ought to stay a stingy protection in Dallas even with the harm to DaRon Bland.

However much more than I might wish to be fading the Browns early, I am shopping for the Cowboys early. I believe they’ve drafted and developed properly to account for his or her offensive line departures. I additionally assume that our concentrate on the poor long-term well being of the Cowboys’ franchise (lengthy CeeDee Lamb contract hold-in, no Dak deal, no Parsons deal) biases us in opposition to the short-term well being of the Cowboys roster proper now. Prescott, Parsons, and Lamb are nonetheless within the constructing. Solely the Chiefs have received extra common season video games during the last three years than the Cowboys. That is nonetheless an excellent soccer workforce.

Seth Walder first guess: Alternate Unfold: Seattle Seahawks (-12.5, +215) vs. Denver Broncos

I am utilizing an alternate line right here to make the most of the truth that this sport has far more variance than a standard contest. There’s an opportunity that Ryan Grubb’s offense – which powered Washington to the nationwide title sport final yr – may present prompt fireworks in its NFL debut. Mike Macdonald ought to discover inventive methods to get strain and instantly put life into the Seattle’s move rush. And there is a likelihood that Bo Nix simply cannot dangle in his NFL debut. I do not know if any of those will occur, however the likelihood of an excessive outcome appears a lot larger right here than most video games.

Andre Snellings first guess: Green Bay Packers +3.0 over Philadelphia Eagles (-120).

Jalen Hurts did not play in any respect this preseason and for the second yr in a row he’ll begin the season with a brand new offense below a brand new offensive coordinator. The Packers are getting the total 3 factors at ESPN BET proper now, regardless that the Eagles will not actually have house subject benefit with the sport to be performed in Sao Paulo, Brazil. Whereas I count on the Eagles to look higher than the workforce that misplaced six of their final seven video games final season, they will be going through a Packers squad that ended final yr on fireplace as Jordan Love took flight in his first yr beginning below middle. Love enters this yr with a full complement of thrilling younger large receivers wholesome, elevating the ceiling for the Packers’ offense and growing the probability they begin the season on a excessive notice.

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