Much Deliberation on Machado

Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports
Good news, Padres fans! Manny Machado is hitting as hard as nearly everyone in baseball*! Take a look at this leaderboard:

2024 is home to the highest average exit velocity on record.

Yes! Machado’s crushing it at fourth in the majors. No Aaron Judge here; neither Juan Soto, Shohei Ohtani, Gunnar Henderson – not even Shohei Ohtani and Gunnar Henderson can keep up. Never mind the pesky “asterisk”, because Machado has it covered! Though, speaking of an asterisk… what exactly could that asterisk signify?
*: Exit Velocity on Groundballs Only
Ah ha. Perhaps that explains why our list lacks great hitters but instead features men barely holding on or getting sent down to Triple-A; thunderous power doesn’t translate well when hitting balls directly into infield grass, thus explaining this strange trend:

Manny Machado Contact Metrics By Year

Year, Avg EVs (Top 50% Air and Ground), Ground EV GB% and ISO (Industrialized Countries), 2021-2024: 2020, 90.2: 102.7 91.4, 91.7; 112.8 and 92.1, all within 88% AFVs (37.2 for air & 48 for ground), 37.2% with no sales tax in 2020 2021: 93.1: 104.9 94.2 91.5; 39.0%
From an exit velocity perspective alone, Machado appears to be on an upward trend this year. Even taking into account average top half contact rates over his previous two seasons, they appear better this season; yet he’s hitting harder when elevating; elevating less frequently means less homers/doubles/SOI total.
Maybe you have seen this chart before, but it bears repeating when discussing this matter: adding velocity to grounders doesn’t significantly change their production; here is league-wide wOBA by exit velocity since 2023 when shift ban was instituted (divided between ground contact and air contact contact):
Simply stated, hitting harder on the ground does not pay dividends in terms of WOBAA; at 90 mph hitting at ground speed yields an wOBA of only.204; ramp it up to 100mph hitting and that only bumps it to an increase to 314 for reference purposes – taking it from 90-100 only increases from bad to worse!
Still, getting elevated contact is rewarding: at 90 mph, league players produced a.198 mark which is equivalent to grounders; 100 mph upped that figure to an astounding.571 average; this fell just shy of Aaron Judge’s league-best mark this year at just under 579! Power addition is great — provided it gets into the air!
Can hitting grounders at insane speeds produce results? Absolutely. In games at or above 105 mph, grounders performed better than average but elevated contact was far more valuable, according to charts like these. These figures also explain why more batters attempt to put the ball into flight than usual.
Machado has focused his entire career around his fly ball approach. This strategy fits him like a glove; while capable of demolishing balls at will, lifting and pulling less forcefully often turns power into homers more quickly than an extreme swing would. Additionally, his striking zone skills and bat-to-ball techniques were excellent, leading him to generate more walks than average while simultaneously striking out less often and producing batted ball combinations heavy with pulled home runs compared to peers. All combined it results in his unique career line which boasts more walks than average while striking out less frequently and an accumulation of pulled home runs batted ball mix is indicative of that success he enjoys today compared with peers compared with average.
That answers what has gone wrong; now let’s ask why it has. There are four possible explanations here, from innocuous (Machiado began the season injured and has since recovered fully to major issues), to more extreme ones like an intentional act on Machado’s part or any number of injury issues (even minor ones like his recent back strain could potentially stall performance and compromise his position as MVP contender).
There is some promising evidence on this front, though it’s too soon to make definitive statements about his success or otherwise. He has been elevating more frequently since May 15 and experiencing success doing so; whether this marks an upswing in form or simply more time spent rising is unknown until further proof has surfaced.
Another possibility: This decline is just age-related; I find this interpretation hard to substantiate when taken against all available evidence, since Machado still swung hard last season and his eye at the plate hasn’t decreased; look at his air contact numbers or top 50% EV ratio numbers; they remain identical compared with prior seasons if this were truly age-related decline; then we all should feel so lucky!
Thirdly, Machado could have changed his approach. Perhaps he is targeting pitches he puts on the ground more frequently or has altered his swing to prioritize ground contact more. I am no expert on this topic but, while writing this article and watching extensive video footage of Machado during writing it up, there were few changes visible at first glance; here’s one pulled grounder from 2023 as an example:

From 2024: I attempted to recreate similar camera angles and pitch locations; his swing appears identical. According to location-wise information alone, his swing appears slightly less focused at pitches nearer the bottom of his zone and slightly more at sinkers; these effects appear strongly linked but are small in comparison to variance from opposing pitchers playing baseball; any possible changes might just seem random noise!

Machado is no stranger to short stretches like these; two in a single year may seem worrisome; however, I do not detect much trend there and his last 10 games seem like they may represent his return to form anyway. Couple this narrative with our first possible explanation – his early season injury prevented him from using his usual approach – and you have an intriguing tale. Perhaps Manny Machado will continue being himself regardless of any unusual statistics accrued this season.
That being said, my views may shift if Machado continues his grounder barrage; and here is evidence to back that up: this year Machado squared up 54.4% of his grounders but only 47.4% of his elevated contacts (squared-up rate is a new Statcast metric which measures whether nearly all the potential force from your swing was transferred onto the ball at least 80% of theoretical maximum exit velocity; to put this another way: his greatest power transference has occurred via grounders). In other words, Machado appears more adept at transference via grounders rather than line drives or fly balls; something which needs further examination: this season he squared up 54.4% more grounders than elevated contacts versus 47.4% on elevated contacts only (47.4% in general)
That goes against what most hitters exhibit overall; leaguewide 50.4% of grounders were squared up this season while 61% of aerial contacts did so – most are hitting more often with lifted balls but Machado seems to do this more when hitting downwards; that should be concerning sign.
One issue I encountered when looking at Machado’s numbers: without knowing exactly what his splits looked like last season, it’s difficult to grasp their significance. While his method sounds bad in general terms, without context it becomes impossible to accurately interpret. Perhaps Machado’s squared up rates were even worse last season or that generically frightening batted ball distribution didn’t translate to success because other elements contributed more strongly towards his overall game success; maybe such factors vary widely year to year or month-by-month!
Sorry about how vague my analysis seems; one drawback of looking at partial seasons with new data sources. At this stage I don’t know whether Machado’s grounder-heavy 2024 performance reflects an overhauled swing or something else entirely; either way I will continue keeping an eye out to see whether his contact solidifies more when put up into the air and for any additional data sources that provide further insights as to what might be going on with his game.