Major League Baseball Big-Market Spending Is Back and Better Than Ever as Cheap Owners are Exposed

There has been an upheaval in MLB’s offseason forecast and it calls for rain – in particular rain of cash – with multiple transactions coming soon and possibly several billion being awarded outright to teams and individual players alike. Nobody, from small market owners to anyone else, has any cause for complaints in baseball today; even uninterested bystanders have sensed something is amiss in baseball when one individual recently hit an estimated net worth of three-quarters of $1 billion. Juan Soto has made more than that from his 15-year deal with Steve Cohen’s New York Mets; this contract pays at least $765 million and could even top $805 million over 15 years – surpassing Shohei Ohtani’s 10-year, $700 million contract with Los Angeles Dodgers by “only” $65, in terms of total dollars spent. As per MLB commissioner Rob Manfred’s estimate of lost revenues due to COVID-shortened seasons costing teams some $3 billion in revenues; there was one other blip which caused concern – one with an identifiable cause and another which wasn’t so evident; both occurring from 2019-20 through 2024-24 and both with reasons that can only be described as unexpected: 2019-20: $4.3 billion/2021-21: $3.3 billion2022-23-24 =$5.5 billionBoth drops occurred following regional sports network broadcast model breakdown which caused MLB to warn teams for potential short term losses before ultimately recovering them by 2024-24 season start offseasons; 2023-24 experienced an abrupt decrease from 2023-24 because MLB warned teams for potential shortterm losses from this model change, followed by its collapse leading up until 2024- 25-23-a drop that also happened due to collapsed regional sports network broadcast model collapse forcing it’s collapse forcing them into bracing themselves against short term losses as it took effect and warned them for short term losses as it happened with collapse of regional sports network broadcast model collapse forcing MLB warn teams ahead of short term losses when MLB warned them before warning them about short term losses due to short term loss-induced loss as resulted loss due to short term losses due short term loss caused due its collapse which forced them prepare themselves financially as this one happened, making MLB warned them as they prepared themselves financially against short term loss related loss model collapse from 2023-24 forecasting model collapse which made teams to brace themselves short term loss expected short term loss forecasters to brace losses ahead. This one occurred amid short term broadcast model collapse forcing MLB warning them ahead warning them bracing losses which followed shortly afterwards warning teams as it came subsequently warn about shortterm loss- and its collapse forced them warning teams in 2023-24 forecast by MLB warned them with possible short term loss before possible long term. Since then, an adjustment was made regarding revenue-sharing dollars; still it was remarkable how even top players in 2023-24 market weren’t receiving payment – Ohtani did receive compensation, along with Yoshinobu Yamamoto ($325 Million) and Jung Hoo Lee (113.5 Million). FanGraphs reports that, according to projections, 10 free agents following Ohtani undershot their projected contracts by $121.5 million last offseason; but this time is different – spending has already exceeded $2 billion! FanGraphs predicted eight out of the 10 biggest free agent deals so far – all exceeding our estimates by more than projected! Soto topped his benchmark by an eye-watering $180 million while Fried, Adames and Snell all exceeded theirs by significant margins.The spending can be tied to four key markets such as New York, Los Angeles and San Francisco that rank first and second respectively among MLB markets. 2024 is no exception – often this holds true! As expected, all three highest-spending teams advanced to the Championship Series round. There is little doubt in my mind that teams with more money should also spend more. Scott Boras made that statement in 2012. “Major franchises that receive most of their revenues should provide products with nearly the highest payrolls commensurate with their markets,” according to Adam Rubin of ESPN (h/t New York Times). To counter such arguments, small market teams face further disadvantage as time progresses. However, until something drastic like salary caps come into place to contain costs for teams like this one, things are only going to deteriorate further. Of course there may also be another angle at play here… Are Other Teams Uncompetent? MLB Faced Payroll Disparity Crisis in 2021-22 Offseason and it Has Persisted SinceAccording to Spotrac, the highest spending team spent nearly 4 times more money in 2022 versus their low spending counterpart. However, since 2023 the gap has expanded considerably – initially reaching 6.0 before narrowing again this year to 5.6. However, while it might be easy to blame teams at the top for not spending as efficiently, that doesn’t take into account what may not be spent by teams at the bottom. Without exact figures relating annual earnings to payroll costs it would be impossible to accurately judge this phenomenon. However, Travis Sawchik of The Score conducted an experiment comparing teams’ 2023 revenues and payrolls of 2024; on average they fell short by $191 million! Traditional big spenders like Boston Red Sox, Chicago Cubs, Detroit Tigers and Washington Nationals were especially guilty. At the bottom of this list are clubs such as Athletics, Tampa Bay Rays, Cincinnati Reds and Pittsburgh Pirates – yet the truth may be more complex. As evidenced by the Athletics’ record three-year, $67 million deal with Luis Severino, it demonstrates how the MLB Players Association does have power when it comes to how teams spend revenue-sharing dollars. That being said, most MLB clubs fall somewhere along a spectrum between spending responsibly and not doing so at all. John Fisher, Stuart Sternberg, Bob Castellini and Bob Nutting–most notably–own these properties and keep all the knowledge to themselves. Clayton Kershaw of the Dodgers responded to critics who believed their money had been misspent with an offer: if anyone feels anger toward owners who spend all the money then why shouldn’t you guys follow in their footsteps and become owners themselves as an incentive, regardless of what people say? Being an owner can be profitable no matter who says what. Just go do it.” As MLB drafts its next collective bargaining agreement, there may be ways for MLB to legislate bottom-feeder teams so that they catch up in terms of revenue-sharing dollars. Tighter regulation would likely work. Failing that, there’s always the nuclear option of setting a payroll floor; alternatively, public shaming might suffice as well. Owners who resist being told their time has come should remind themselves they don’t owe anyone an explanation; selling is always an option as every ownership group stands to gain at least $1 billion by finding buyers for its assets. As evidenced by their struggles under new ownership, Miami Marlins are an illustration that nothing is guaranteed; sometimes an outside perspective may provide what a team needs for success. Indeed, many successful franchises feature relatively young owners. Since 1999, four teams that changed hands have won World Series after changing ownership: Dodgers, Cubs, Houston Astros and Texas Rangers. Others such as San Diego Padres and Mets have experienced greater success following new ownership changes; with Cohen setting an excellent standard among other owners if any need to follow in his footsteps; otherwise they face being removed as owners altogether.