Let’s take inventory two weeks earlier than the large Election Day - Poynter

Election Day is strictly two weeks from at this time. Voting is already underway. We’re coming right down to the wire.

Kamala Harris is out campaigning with Liz Cheney, whereas Donald Trump serves up fries at McDonald’s and talks about Arnold Palmer’s … properly, you’ve heard by now.

In the meantime, supporters of each search for any tick within the polls, any shift of the needle, any clue that their candidate would be the subsequent president of the US.

That seems to be a waste of time.

Polling and horse-race protection have taken a beating over the previous two elections — just about ever because it regarded like Hillary Clinton was a lock to beat Trump in 2016.

In the latest episode of “The Poynter Report Podcast,” NBC Information and MSNBC nationwide political correspondent Steve Kornacki defined how there have been “huge state-specific” polling misses in each 2016 and 2020 and that’s what is casting critical questions over this 12 months’s polls.

However the smartest factor I examine polling this week — and in a extremely very long time — got here from New York Occasions chief political analyst Nate Cohn, who wrote on Monday that the race is simply too tight to attract any conclusions. So don’t.

Cohn writes, “In North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Michigan, neither candidate even ‘leads’ by greater than two-tenths of a share level. Neither can realistically win the presidency with out profitable no less than certainly one of these states. With the polls so tight, the time period ‘leads’ actually does should be in citation marks. Sure, the distinction between ‘main’ or ‘trailing’ by 0.2 factors would possibly really feel very important. In spite of everything, it appears just like the distinction between whether or not a candidate is profitable or shedding. The election, nevertheless, isn’t determined by the polls; it’s determined by the voters. As a consequence, a lead or deficit of 0.2 factors in a polling common isn’t the distinction between whether or not a candidate is profitable or shedding, regardless that it could really feel prefer it.”

Right here’s the half that basically stood out to me. Cohn writes, “The polls merely are usually not exact sufficient for a 0.2-point edge to convey any significant info. For all functions, the race is tied; don’t really feel any sorrow or take any solace in whether or not your candidate is on the appropriate or flawed aspect of that 0.2-point hole.”

In the long run, perhaps polling has gotten higher or perhaps it hasn’t.

However you’d hope that what we take from polls has grow to be smarter and extra grounded. Cohn’s remarks give us some optimism that’s true.

One of the viral moments in a presidential debate (though he didn’t know what “viral second” meant on the time) got here when Ronald Reagan mentioned to President Jimmy Carter in 1980, “There you go once more.”

That truly grew to become a line Reagan used greater than as soon as to throw off his opponents. It additionally helped impressionists do a superb imitation of Reagan.

I convey that up now as a result of that’s what somebody might say to Donald Trump very often: “There you go once more.”

For example, Fox News’ “Fox & Friends” aired Trump at a barbershop on Monday repeating the identical debunked line about youngsters getting intercourse modifications at colleges with out parental permission.

In answering a query within the Bronx in regards to the “failing college system,” Trump finally acquired round to certainly one of his favourite speaking factors: “No transgender, no operations. You already know they take your child. There are some locations your boy leaves the college, comes again a woman. OK. With out parental consent. What’s that each one about? That’s like. That’s — once they speak about a menace to democracy. They’re a menace. May you think about with out parental consent? At first, what I used to be informed was truly taking place, I mentioned, you recognize, it’s an exaggeration. No. It occurs!”

No, it doesn’t.

Fox Information’ Lawrence Jones, who was internet hosting, didn’t trouble to step in and query Trump.

This isn’t the primary time Trump has mentioned this.

At a Mothers for Liberty convention in late August, Trump mentioned, “The transgender factor is unbelievable. Consider it. Your child goes to highschool and comes residence just a few days later with an operation. The varsity decides what’s going to occur along with your little one.”

Poynter’s PolitiFact rated that claim as “Pants on Hearth.” PolitiFact’s Grace Abels wrote, “If a surgical process at college sounds far-fetched, that’s as a result of it’s. Faculties usually don’t present college students with medical care with out parental consent, not to mention provide surgical procedure. Dad and mom, guardians and docs, not colleges, are the choice makers for well being choices involving minors.”

CNN fact-checker Daniel Dale wrote at the time, “Trump’s declare is fake. There is no such thing as a proof that US colleges have despatched kids into gender-affirming surgical procedures with out their mother and father understanding or carried out gender-affirming surgical procedures on web site; Trump’s personal presidential marketing campaign couldn’t present a single instance of this ever taking place. Even in states the place gender-affirming surgical procedure is authorized for folks underneath age 18, parental consent is required earlier than a minor can endure such a process.”

Many people are nonetheless shaking their heads over Donald Trump’s feedback about Arnold Palmer over the weekend at a rally within the late golfer’s hometown of Latrobe, Pennsylvania. In case you missed it, Trump mentioned, “Arnold Palmer was all man. And I say that in all due respect to ladies, and I like ladies. However this man, this man, it is a man that was all man. This man was robust and difficult. And I refused to say it, however when he took showers with the opposite professionals, they got here out of there, they mentioned, ‘Oh my God, that’s unbelievable.’ I needed to say it.”

On air Monday, CNN nationwide politics correspondent Eva McKend mentioned, “There’s a actual double customary at work that I feel is value amplifying. If the vp acquired on stage for 2 hours and was waxing poetic a few sports activities star’s genitalia, folks wouldn’t characterize her as a reputable candidate for president.”

McKend famous that this a method of Trump, who she referred to as extra of an “entertainer” than a politician. Nevertheless, Harris is utilizing this sort of stuff as “gas for her argument to voters that he’s, at his core, unserious.”

That is attention-grabbing. New York Occasions conservative columnist Bret Stephens says he’ll do it whereas “kicking and screaming,” however he’s voting for Kamala Harris.

In “The Conversation” column opinion piece with the Occasions’ Gail Collins, Stephens says, “It’s a 99.999 % vote towards Trump and a 0.001 % vote for Harris.”

Stephens mentioned he would have voted for Nikki Haley, Ron DeSantis, Doug Burgum and possibly even Tim Scott in the event that they had been operating towards Harris. However it’s Trump.

Stephens mentioned, “I’d slightly take my probabilities with a president whose competence I doubt and whose insurance policies I dislike than one whose character I detest.”

New York journal star reporter Olivia Nuzzi was not too long ago caught up in a scandal when she was positioned on go away whereas the publication investigated a private relationship she had with a topic she reported on — former presidential candidate Robert Kennedy Jr.

The 2 apparently had an intimate, though not bodily relationship.

New York journal put out a press release on Monday saying an impartial investigation discovered “no inaccuracies nor proof of bias” in Nuzzi’s work, however that Nuzzi would not be working on the journal.

The statement said in full, “Final month, the journal enlisted the legislation agency Davis Wright Tremaine to evaluation Olivia Nuzzi’s work throughout the 2024 marketing campaign. They reached the identical conclusion because the journal’s preliminary inside evaluation of her revealed work, discovering no inaccuracies nor proof of bias. Nonetheless, the journal and Nuzzi agreed that one of the best course ahead is to half methods. Nuzzi is a uniquely gifted author and we’ve got been proud to publish her work over her practically eight years as our Washington Correspondent. We want her one of the best.”

Even when the investigation discovered Nuzzi’s work had not been compromised, the looks of impropriety and the following scandal — which incorporates allegations made by her ex-fiance, Politico reporter Ryan Lizza, about Nuzzi and Kennedy’s relationship — in all probability made it sensible for each Nuzzi and the journal to half methods.

The Washington Post’s Elahe Izadi and Maura Judkis noted, “​​On Oct. 1, Nuzzi was granted a protecting order towards Lizza, alleging that he had blackmailed and harassed her, together with threatening her with violence. Lizza has since taken a go away of absence whereas Politico conducts its personal investigation of his conduct. He recused himself from protection of Kennedy.”

Nuzzi’s legal professional mentioned in a press release, “Ms. Nuzzi is gratified although not stunned that two completely different investigations have decided that her reporting on the 2024 marketing campaign was sound and that she did nothing flawed. For practically eight years, she persistently produced critically celebrated and vastly fashionable journalism in her capability because the Washington Correspondent for New York Journal. She is grateful for the editors, reality checkers, and artists with whom she labored and to the readers who’ve supported her with their time, subscriptions, and engagement. She appears ahead to the subsequent chapter of her profession.”

Disney is anticipated to call a successor to CEO Bob Iger in early 2026, the corporate introduced Monday. In the meantime, James Gorman will substitute Mark Parker as the corporate’s subsequent chairman, efficient in January. Gorman, government chair of Morgan Stanley, has been on Disney’s board since February. In August, he was put answerable for overseeing the succession plan for Iger’s alternative.

CNBC’s Alex Sherman reported, “Disney had initially focused 2025 to announce a successor, as CNBC reported final 12 months. Pushing the date again to early 2026 will give the board extra time to conduct due diligence on each inside and exterior candidates, in accordance with folks accustomed to the matter, who requested to not be named as a result of the discussions are non-public.”

Iger, 73, was the longtime Disney boss earlier than retiring in 2020. However he got here out of retirement in 2022 after his hand-picked successor, Bob Chapek, was fired.

The New York Times’ Brooks Barnes wrote, “Mr. Iger has publicly mentioned he’s ‘undoubtedly’ leaving when his contract expires on Dec. 31, 2026, a vow some folks inside and outdoors of Disney have seen with skepticism. Throughout his earlier, 15-year stint as Disney’s chief government, Mr. Iger delayed his retirement 4 instances and appeared reluctant to go away when he did.”

Who replaces Iger is anyone’s guess, however the 4 names that come up most frequently are ESPN chairman Jimmy Pitaro, Disney Experiences Chairman Josh D’Amaro, and Disney Leisure Co-Chairmen Dana Walden and Alan Bergman.

• New York journal and media author Charlotte Klein with a extremely spectacular difficulty that focuses on the 57 strongest folks in media: “Can the Media Survive?” (The print model, together with some superior images of the 57 media sorts, is excellent.)
• CNN’s Brian Fung with “How Republicans pushed social media companies to stop fighting election misinformation.”
• Latest interviews carried out by CBS Information’ Tony Dokoupil (of Ta-Nehisi Coates) and Fox Information’ Bret Baier (of Kamala Harris) have stirred up loads of dialog and controversy. My Poynter colleague, Kelly McBride, weighs in with a really insightful column on how journalists ought to ask onerous and truthful questions, however notes that each had been case research on how to not do powerful interviews. Learn McBride’s critiques and options.
• Main League Baseball and Fox, which is able to televise the upcoming World Collection, should be completely thrilled that the Fall Traditional will characteristic the 2 most well-known groups in baseball from the 2 largest markets because the New York Yankees tackle the Los Angeles Dodgers. And never solely does that collection have regional curiosity, however it’s going to have an enormous nationwide following. Relying on how the collection performs out, this might be the most-watched World Collection in years. Though Entrance Workplace Sports activities’ Eric Fisher factors out, “There’s a low base for the occasion, as final 12 months’s assembly between the Rangers and Diamondbacks set a document for the least-watched World Collection, with a median of 9.1 million.” The collection begins Friday in Los Angeles.

Have suggestions or a tip? Electronic mail Poynter senior media author Tom Jones at [email protected].

The Poynter Report is our every day media publication. To have it delivered to your inbox Monday-Friday, join here.