Largest betting storylines forward of the 2024 NFL season

One other NFL season is upon us, and with it comes a uncommon probability at historical past. The Kansas City Chiefs will attempt to turn out to be the primary franchise to win three consecutive Tremendous Bowls. They’re the primary franchise to even try the feat because the New England Patriots in 2005.

Kansas Metropolis’s trendy dominance is summed up properly within the betting odds. At +500, the Chiefs enter the 2024 marketing campaign as Tremendous Bowl favorites for the fifth time prior to now six seasons, the lone exception being 2022 — a season wherein they in the end received the Tremendous Bowl. Kansas Metropolis additionally has a win complete of 11.5 at ESPN BET, marking the Chiefs’ sixth straight season with a preseason double-digit win complete, tied for the fourth-longest streak of all time, per ESPN Stats & Data.

After all, the Chiefs will not be the one group vying for the Lombardi Trophy. Ten different groups present odds of 20-1 or shorter to win Tremendous Bowl LIX, one among which is the Aaron Rodgers-led New York Jets. The Jets will probably be trying to break the league’s longest lively playoff drought (since 2010) and are -155 favorites to take action.

As in most most years, groups, bettors and bookmakers alike may also need to cope with new rule modifications, essentially the most outstanding of which this season is an overhaul to kickoffs that might have implications on win totals, amongst different wagers.

“To start with, or at the very least Week 1, we’re taking a look at it and seeing what is going on to occur from there,” BetMGM buying and selling supervisor Christian Cipollini informed ESPN. “We’ll attempt to react closely to it versus entering into and making a change forward of time, simply because it is nonetheless so unknown.”

Listed below are a number of the most notable betting storylines heading into the 2024 NFL season.

Impression of recent kickoff guidelines

Touchbacks decreased dramatically within the preseason, the primary time NFL groups applied the brand new kickoff guidelines, and the typical beginning subject place improved by greater than 3 yards. Nonetheless, scoring was decrease than the betting market anticipated this preseason, with 31 out of 48 video games going underneath the whole.

Oddsmakers are taking a wait-and-see strategy earlier than making any numbers changes associated to the kickoffs. The over/underneath totals for Week 1 are in step with previous years, however bookmakers are watching carefully for any angles that develop.

“If there’s a bonus, they’re going to discover it and so they’ll play it, after which the market will regulate,” John Murray, govt director of the Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas, mentioned. “It’s important to at all times be in your toes, searching for that type of factor.”

The brand new guidelines require 10 members of the kickoff group to line up on the opponents’ 40-yard line. The receiving group should line up at the very least 9 gamers by itself 30-yard line. The spot of the kick (the kicking group’s 35-yard line) didn’t change. All kicks that land contained in the receiving group’s 20-yard line and wanting the aim line (to be referred to as the “touchdown space”) have to be returned. Touchbacks happen if the ball is kicked out of the tip zone or if a participant downs a ball that hit contained in the touchdown space and bounced into the tip zone. In these situations, the ball could be positioned on the receiving group’s 30-yard line or 20-yard line, respectively.

Oddsmakers doubt the brand new guidelines will impression totals or level spreads for video games, however they are saying some obscure prop bets could possibly be affected, reminiscent of the percentages on the results of a kickoff ending in a touchback. Within the preseason, solely 26.9% of kickoffs resulted in touchbacks, in line with ESPN Stats and Data. Over the previous 5 common seasons, 63% of kickoffs have resulted in touchbacks. Final season, a report 73% of kickoffs resulted in touchbacks. The NFL mentioned it applied the brand new guidelines to each enhance returns and reduce accidents.

Patrick Jay, head of ESPN BET sportsbook, mentioned the percentages on a kickoff leading to a touchback is a well-liked in-game betting choice and believes the brand new guidelines will trigger kickoff betting markets to “tackle a brand new life.”

“In the course of the 2023 season, the percentages for the following kickoff to be a touchback may need traded as quick -3000, with odds not often favoring a receiving group’s possibilities of initiating a return, “Jay informed ESPN. “From a buying and selling perspective, we’re to see if the brand new guidelines result in extra advantageous subject place to begin drives, and, in flip, how that interprets into scoring alternatives in comparison with earlier seasons.”

The typical beginning subject place within the preseason was the 29-yard line. Over the previous 5 common seasons, the typical beginning subject place was the 26-yard line, in line with ESPN Stats and Data.

Murray questions whether or not 3 yards of higher subject place would have a major impression on the success of drives however is watching to see what occurs, particularly on the over/underneath factors scored in first and third quarters.

“I suppose it is attainable that, when quarters [totals] do go up, we may see individuals betting the primary quarters over,” Murray mentioned. “I do not know that transferring from the 26 [yard line] to the 29 is critical sufficient to try this.”

What are the percentages of a Chiefs three-peat?

With two Tremendous Bowl victories in as many seasons, the Chiefs are already in rarefied air and can cross into unprecedented territory if they will seize a 3rd consecutive Lombardi Trophy. Out of eight earlier back-to-back Tremendous Bowl champions, none have efficiently accomplished the three-peat (though, the Green Bay Packers did three-peat as NFL champions two totally different occasions previous to the Tremendous Bowl period).

The Chiefs’ future odds to take action this season are instantly in step with earlier would-be three-peaters, and so they’re attracting the fervent betting motion to match.

At +500 on ESPN BET, Kansas Metropolis’s odds to win Tremendous Bowl LIX are the identical because the previous two repeat champions getting into their potential three-peat season. The 2005 Patriots had been tied for one of the best odds that preseason with the Indianapolis Colts and Philadelphia Eagles, whereas the 1999 Denver Broncos really trailed the Minnesota Vikings (+450) in odds.

The earlier three repeat champs — the 1994 Dallas Cowboys (+300), the 1990 San Francisco 49ers (+350) and the 1980 Pittsburgh Steelers (+240) — all confirmed shorter odds than the Chiefs present this yr, and solely the Cowboys had been second on their odds board (behind the 49ers, who had been +200 and in the end received the title).

However once more, none of those groups had been capable of pull off the three-peat. Nonetheless, that hasn’t stopped bettors from going to the window for Kansas Metropolis.

“It has been largely one-way site visitors with the Chiefs by way of betting curiosity as soon as once more,” ESPN BET head of sportsbook Patrick Jay informed ESPN.

The e book has 17% of its Tremendous Bowl futures deal with on the Chiefs, and Patrick Mahomes has 20% of the deal with to win MVP.

The Chiefs are additionally the deal with leaders at BetMGM (18.7%), DraftKings (17%) and FanDuel (19%). Unsurprisingly, they lead the AFC Championship markets at all the books as effectively.

The motion, mixed with the final Tremendous Bowl win, noticed their championship odds fall incrementally from +750 in January to their present place, per ESPN BET.

Except for the longer term legal responsibility, Kansas Metropolis is bound to be a well-liked choose week to week because it pursues the elusive third straight Tremendous Bowl.

“The Chiefs, clearly, are going to be a well-liked choice, and so they’re extra possible than not going to be a well-liked choice all through your complete season,” Cipollini mentioned. “I think about any sport that they are taking part in in, we will be rooting for whoever they’re taking part in towards.”

The place’s the cash going forward of the season?

Even when the Chiefs had received solely final season’s Tremendous Bowl as a substitute of the previous two, the heavy futures motion on them would not be significantly shocking. Cipollini mentioned that the reigning champion tends to take a big portion of cash every time the following season’s future markets go dwell.

From there, the consensus second-most-popular choose to win the Tremendous Bowl has been the Detroit Lions (+1000), who’ve attracted 9% of the bets and 12% of the deal with on ESPN BET. BetMGM, DraftKings and FanDuel all report comparable figures to rank Detroit behind solely Kansas Metropolis for essentially the most tickets and cash.

The Lions are much more widespread within the NFC Championship market, the place they’re taking upward of 30% of the deal with at a lot of the main sportsbooks, with odds round +550. There’s little consensus on who would possibly win the convention from there, with the Chicago Bears, Eagles, Packers, Los Angeles Rams and reigning convention champion 49ers all taking over various ranges of motion throughout {the marketplace}.

It is the second season in a row that public assist has been behind Detroit after Dan Campbell’s squad first confirmed a spark throughout the 2022 season.

“We had far more legal responsibility on them final season as a result of they opened up at 40-to-1, 30-to-1, no matter they had been. Now at 12-to-1, it is a a lot simpler tablet for the e book to swallow,” Cipollini mentioned. “A number of Michigan bettors for us final season had been undoubtedly everywhere in the Lions, and I believe they put their division winner tickets or no matter winnings they’d from final season proper again onto them for this season, as a result of we’re undoubtedly taking numerous motion on them once more.”

On the AFC facet, the Jets have confirmed to be a buzzy choose amongst big-money bettors for convention futures, garnering 24% of deal with (greater than the Chiefs at 16%) with solely 10% of tickets at ESPN BET. FanDuel equally studies that the Jets have the second-most AFC Championship cash (14%, behind the Chiefs at 27%) however the fourth-most tickets.

That mentioned, bettors are much less assured that the Rodgers-led squad can win that subsequent sport to deliver residence the franchise’s first title since 1968. New York is just not within the high 5 for Tremendous Bowl futures at any of the key books by variety of bets and cracks that fifth spot by deal with solely at FanDuel.

NFL participant props

Heading into the ultimate days of summer season, Houston Texans rising famous person C.J. Stroud emerged because the consensus most-popular betting choice within the NFL MVP futures market. Whereas that is largely nonetheless true — he carries the best ticket rely at a lot of the main sportsbooks — there are different big-name gamers with notable motion, or lack thereof.

“I really feel prefer it’s sort of died down just a little bit, however undoubtedly once we first opened we had been getting numerous Stroud motion,” Cipollini mentioned.

Protecting with the heightened curiosity on the Lions, Jared Goff has garnered some vital motion to win the league’s highest particular person honor at a decently lengthy +2200, per ESPN BET odds. He is tied for third with Jalen Hurts (+1300) in DraftKings’ rankings with 8% of the deal with, and he’s outright third in each bets (9.1%) and cash (9.8%) at BetMGM, the place he goes down because the e book’s largest legal responsibility due to his longer odds than these of different candidates.

“He is most likely the worst consequence for us proper now,” DraftKings director of sportsbook operations Johnny Avello informed ESPN.

Two-time MVP Mahomes continues to be writing tickets regardless of being the large favourite at +475 odds. ESPN BET (20%) and BetMGM (12.4%) each report the 28-year-old as their deal with chief for the award.

As for reigning MVP Lamar Jackson, neither the percentages nor the motion have been significantly type to him. The Baltimore Ravens signal-caller comes into the season with +1600 odds at ESPN BET, tied with Brock Purdy for seventh shortest, and has simply the ninth-highest deal with at DraftKings (4%) and Thirteenth-highest at BetMGM (2.8%).

Offensive Rookie of the Yr has additionally confirmed to be a well-liked, intriguing market. No. 1 draft choose Caleb Williams (+140) is drawing a lot of the motion, taking essentially the most tickets and cash at ESPN BET, however a number of the different extremely touted first-round quarterbacks are garnering much more, in some circumstances.

Bo Nix (+1000), particularly, has attracted bettor intrigue since successful the beginning job in Denver, drawing essentially the most bets at FanDuel (17%), in addition to essentially the most tickets (22.1%) and deal with (24.6%) at BetMGM. Second choose Jayden Daniels (+500) can also be lurking close to the highest, recording essentially the most cash at FanDuel (23%).

So far as non-quarterbacks go, third choose Marvin Harrison Jr. is taking motion, as is Malik Nabers, owing to a Giants offseason “Laborious Knocks” bump, per Avello.

After all, these are simply a few the most well-liked awards markets amongst a handful, with much more player-focused futures in a number of stat classes. As legalization spreads and extra bettors be part of the festivities, soccer season choices turn out to be extra widespread from the nation’s sportsbooks.

“We acquired a lot stuff up this yr,” Avello mentioned. “The cash is coming in, and it is unfold out by means of all of the choices now we have up.”