Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 6/4/2024

Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, people, and welcome to my first chat of June!

Jay Jaffe: My lunch simply arrived as this chat started so please bear with me for a couple of minutes as I get some nourishment

Gerald H: Opening day 2025….what crew do you assume Juan Soto is on?

Jay Jaffe: I’d say it’s both the Yankees or the Mets, with the Giants most likely the third crew I’d title however their present regime’s precariousness most likely working in opposition to them.

Tim: Are we staring down one other mlb lockout in 2026/2027? Already listening to rumors about it… will the league truly miss video games this time?

Jay Jaffe: I get requested this each single chat. I’m actually unsure why it’s price dwelling upon — I’ve no management over it, you haven’t any management over it, and no person who does have management over it’ll do a lot up till we’re approaching a deadline.

Jay Jaffe: Human nature, I suppose! However no, i don’t assume there’ll find yourself being video games missed (versus rescheduled as in 2022).

Gm Converse: Is the Blue Jays and Astros Gm’s saying there is no such thing as a probability they’re going to promote there good gamers on the deadline simply lip service or are they actually going to be that cussed? Blue Jays particularly being 13 video games out of first.

Jay Jaffe: i feel it’s largely simply public relations posturing; no person desires their followers to begin tuning out and seeking to subsequent 12 months, and each nonetheless have pictures on the Wild Card on the very least. The Jays aren’t going to win the division however they’re solely 5 video games again within the Wild Card race, the Astros are 7 video games again by way of each routes

sodo mojo: Do the Mariners must commerce for a bat within the brief time period or do they wait till the deadline? Because the calendar flipped to Might they’re league common by WRC does that give them pause to see which of their struggling bats rebounds?

Jay Jaffe: Whereas I’m certain they (and also you) would really like a fast repair, the fact is that right now there fewer groups prepared to commerce the form of gamers who might be accessible in late July, and a GM who’s promoting would most likely should be shocked to make a deal. Not everyone is enjoying as much as their functionality however the Mariners’ bats do appear to be trending in the proper course, and being in first place buys him a while.

DT: A full season at this fee (round 9 WAR) has to seal the Cooperstown deal for Choose proper?
It might put his WAR7 at virtually 50. The one place gamers with that form of peak are both excluded for different causes (Bonds, ARod, Shoeless Joe), ready for the decision (Pujols, Trout, Betts) or inside circle Corridor guys.

Jay Jaffe: I wouldn’t say it seals the deal, as a result of longevity remains to be the first driver of who will get elected to the Corridor of Fame, and Choose doesn’t even have 1,000 hits, not to mention the two,000 that has been a bright-line take a look at for BBWAA candidates for the previous half-century

Jay Jaffe: That stated, sure, Choose is wanting good on the advanced-stat entrance, with a 44.5 peak rating (WAR7) and counting; his 3.9 bWAR is already his seventh-best season, and so each extra win he provides counts in direction of enhancing that, and including a full level to his JAWS. Because of his late begin, he’s going to be a novel case anyway, however he’s going to want to bulk up his profession numbers earlier than he assures himself of a spot in Cooperstown.

Tjf167: What $ quantity does an inexpensive Volpe extension begin at? Looks like a excessive ceiling however lowish ground participant. $110mm with a number of FA years?

Jay Jaffe: that’s a greater query for Dan Szymborski however the Andres Gimenez seven-year, $106.5 million extension from final 12 months involves thoughts as a place to begin, with changes for inflation and NY. Gimenez was at 2.106 years of service time — not fairly Tremendous Two-eligible — as he headed into his age-24 season. Volpe will likely be at 2.000 12 months as he does the identical subsequent spring.

Tjf167: Are the times of huge first basemen FA offers over? It doesn’t seem to be Alonso will ever get the $150mm he turned down, and with 1 dimensional guys like Torkleson (busting) and Vlad Jr   (regressing), it simply looks as if there must be plenty of skitishness.

Jay Jaffe: I wouldn’t shut the door on one other one ever occurring however proper now, there’s no apparent recipient of 1, and if I needed to throw a dart so far as who to control, it might most likely be the Pink Sox’s Triston Casas. However that time remains to be a good distance off and he’s bought work to do to push his asking value into the $150M vary.

brad penny in your ideas: how “huge of a deal” do you discover the Tucupita Marcano ban?  how doubtless do you assume extra bettors will likely be present in MLB?

Jay Jaffe: Anytime you’ve bought a participant banned for all times it’s an enormous deal. I don’t know that one other is imminent however within the wake of the Ippei Mizuhara/Shohei Ohtani investigation, I’ve heard plenty of rumors about athletes playing by means of unlawful bookmakers, and if baseball ever will get to the underside of it, I wouldn’t be shocked if we see suspensions extra just like the one-year ones given to minor leaguers.

Frankly, I believe there must be a blanket ban on skilled athletes playing on sports activities, and it’s important to be fairly ****ing silly to threat your profession on the kind of cash at stake by means of both authorized or unlawful betting.

RAGBRAI: As pitchers are pitching fewer innings (impacting different stats) and hitters are hitting much less HRs (impacting different stats), can we see these former benchmark numbers change into meaningless to HOF entry.

Jay Jaffe: They’re not meaningless — they’re nonetheless there as reference factors — nevertheless it’s going to take Corridor of Fame voters adjusting to the fact of fixing occasions earlier than they totally concede that they should look past win, hit, and homer totals relating to most candidates.

Christian: Hello Jay! With the combination of Negro League stats into the MLB file and elevated consciousness of lesser-known NeL stars, do you see any Negro Leaguers who would possibly discover their approach into the Corridor of Fame quickly?

Jay Jaffe: Negro Leagues and pre-Negro Leagues Black baseball gamers, managers and executives will likely be eligible for the 2025 Basic Baseball Period Committee poll, however they’ll be straight competing for area and votes with pre-1980 AL/NL gamers, managers, and execs, and the poll can solely include eight candidates in all. I’m hopeful that anyone will break by means of nevertheless it’s going to be a problem to interrupt out of such a crowded area. I might have a lot most popular to have a Negro Leagues/Black Baseball Period Committee poll voted upon by consultants.

gila monster: Luis Gil bumpday. He’s been on hearth, do you assume it’s legit?

Jay Jaffe: sure, he’s legit, which isn’t to say that I envision him persevering with to pitch in a approach that earns him Cy Younger votes. he’s bought some spectacular stuff and he’s accomplished a implausible job of seizing the chance. I hope that he’s in a position to proceed pitching effectively after no matter slowdown the Yanks impose upon him in order to not overwork him.

Zach: Beloved your Choose piece. One factor I’ve seen that nobody is speaking about is {that a} couple weeks in the past he completed off the very best 50 recreation rolling xwOBA within the statcast period, and he at present has the very best 100 recreation rolling xwOBA within the statcast period. Appears absolutley insane to me.

Jay Jaffe: Wow, I missed that side nevertheless it hardly surprises me. Given his plate self-discipline, energy, and max-EV power, some Choose stretch appeared prone to be the highest one. However as I confirmed within the piece, there’s a case to be made he’s as sizzling as he’s ever been, or fairly rattling shut.

Jay Jaffe:

wheelhouse: if the 2024 yankees are faux, what’s going to the rationale be

Jay Jaffe: We’re all inside Tommy Westphall’s snow globe.

Tacoby Bellsbury: On at the present time two months from now, the place do you watched Pete Alonso will likely be enjoying?

Jay Jaffe: Tampa Bay

P: After studying Dan’s article about Eduard Julien’s demotion, it will not be that justifiable purely by way of efficiency, however provided that the AAA crew is at dwelling this week (so Julien doesn’t want to truly transfer wherever, simply take a unique freeway from dwelling), do you assume there’s something to be gained by merely saying “go play 6 video games in St. Paul and for God’s sake, simply swing the dang bat” in an effort to bust his stoop or change his strategy?

Jay Jaffe: That and a method of navigating a roster crunch (welcome again, Royce Lewis!)

Sanford: Please do to Pete Alonso what you probably did to Aaron Choose. Thanks!

Jay Jaffe: I’ll most likely write about him in some unspecified time in the future however nothing imminent

slumppy: At what level does MLB step in to attempt to do one thing in regards to the offense? It has been so unhealthy general this 12 months. At present it’s the solely of the massive American sports activities that doesn’t appear to get and cater the foundations to extend offense since that’s what most of the people desires.

Jay Jaffe: Scoring is definitely increased than it was in 2022, earlier than we bought a complete bunch of recent guidelines designed to goose the offense, and we haven’t even hit the summer season but, when the ball tends to hold extra and scoring ranges rise. MLB does have future rule modifications in thoughts, ABS being the massive one, however after a one-two serving to of rule modifications, I don’t see the league and the union reacting to each single dip by rewriting the rule ebook.

JT: Even when Vladdy isn’t nice at 3B, is that this lastly a recognition from the Blue Jays that we have to sacrifice some protection for offense if we wish to, um, win a recreation?

Jay Jaffe: It sounds prefer it’s going to be a once-in-awhile factor, and whereas I don’t hate it, I believe the incremental features are fairly dang small on a crew that wants like 5 guys to begin hitting like they’ve prior to now

Kyle: Does Jasson power his approach into the BX?

Jay Jaffe: In all probability not till late within the season until there’s an damage. The Yankees are enjoying so effectively they’re in if-it-ain’t-broke territory, and Dominguez nonetheless has simply 9 video games at Triple-A. Give it time.

Mark S: Would 500 HRs get Stanton to Cooperstown? Or has that benchmark been without end tainted by the Steroid period.

Jay Jaffe: I believe if Stanton bought to 500, he’d most likely get into the Corridor, nevertheless it’s not going to be automated.

Zach: Anthony Rizzo has a 58 wRC+ in his final 30 video games and a 72 wRC+ since his collision with Tatis final 12 months. Are the Yankees ride-or-die with Rizzo or would they contemplate a transfer at 1B?

Jay Jaffe: plenty of yankees questions within the chat so that is the final one for awhile — I believe they’d get DJ LeMahieu some reps at first base earlier than they contemplate going exterior the group.

HoganLegDrop: Is there any cause to assume Severino (if he retains present tempo) will get any greater than what Lorezen did final 12 months?

Jay Jaffe: Completely. He has a for much longer and stronger monitor file, significantly as a starter. Lorenzen made his first All-Star crew final 12 months however completed with a 4.18 ERA and 4.46 FIP, each of which have been worse than his profession averages; he has a 4.23 ERA and 4.59 FIP as a starter for his profession. Severino is coming off a nasty 12 months however has usually been way more profitable.

HoganLegDrop: How ought to we really feel about Yamamoto and that contract given what we’ve seen to date? Do we expect that there’s one other gear he might kick into however is an above-average however not dominate pitcher wanting extra doubtless?

Jay Jaffe: YOU MUST JUMP TO CONCLUSIONS ABOUT A 12-YEAR CONTRACT NOW!

Jay Jaffe: Yamamoto has been inconsistent however sheesh, the man is carrying a 3.32 ERA and a pair of.69 FIP whereas adjusting to a brand new nation, a brand new tradition, and a brand new baseball. I’m unsure how significantly better you anticipate him to be. I believe it is a fairly good begin to what I anticipate will likely be an extended and productive profession.

Nathaniel Lowe: What’s occurring with him? I see a a drop in LA and an enormous drop in ISO and Barrels/Charge. I traded for him when Casas went down and have appeared to amass a rock.

Jay Jaffe: Wow, a 2% barrel fee? a .338 SLG? I believe your man was kidnapped by aliens and changed by James Loney.

Dk: Extra prone to flip their profession round after extreme early profession struggles Baty or Torkelson?

Jay Jaffe: Torkelson, I believe. He did have a little bit of a breakout within the second half final season (.238/.318/.498 , 121 wRC+), so he’s proven he may be an above-average main league hitter, whereas we’re nonetheless ready for that from Baty, whose ceiling was by no means judged to be fairly as excessive.

T(win)s: No query, simply completely satisfied Royce Lewis is again!  Being a fan of MN sports activities we’re preconditioned to default to “That’s why we are able to’t have good issues”

Jay Jaffe: I’m glad Lewis is again, and I’m virtually fully detached to the Twins!

MikeD: Do you consider MLB has “deadened” the ball this 12 months, or are there different points at play. If the previous, why would they do this?

Jay Jaffe: I don’t assume they’ve accomplished something to the ball with intent, however as we’ve seen, modifications in sourcing of supplies can have a larger-than-expected impact from batch to batch and 12 months to 12 months. As the sport’s preeminent physicist, Alan Nathan, informed me in 2011, “The specs on main league baseballs, they virtually don’t need to be referred to as specs, they’re so unfastened that the vary of efficiency from the highest finish to the underside finish is so completely different.”

Jason N: Hey Jay – appears just like the FanGraphs servers are compromised (once more).  I hold getting my display screen taken over by rip-off advertisements – even throughout your chat.  Might wish to alert the positioning admins.

Jay Jaffe: First I’ve heard of it, however I’ll move this alongside to the authorities. Are you logged in?

Phil: Are Bello, Houck, Casas, Devers, Abreu, and Rafaela the core of a future contending crew? Or are we ready for Mayer, Teel, and firm, during which case I presume among the above will likely be traded or let go in free company following a number of extra years of the present countless middlingship? Asking for a number of million associates throughout 5 and a half states, thanks.

Jay Jaffe: I’m in no way satisfied w/r/t Rafaella however it is a fairly first rate crew, with a better-than-expected rotation and a few welcome breakthroughs within the outfield. I wouldn’t quit hope.

Theeeehauahsuehaueheueheushh Yankees win: I used to be poking by means of the EVs of a few of my favourite gamers and I seen Freddie Freeman’s common EV is down a bit and so are most of his exhausting contact numbers. This isn’t to say that he’s having a nasty 12 months clearly, he’s nonetheless most likely a high 20 or 25 participant proper now based mostly simply on the season, nevertheless it bought me excited about declines. Might one thing like this be the signal of an oncoming decline for somebody like Freeman? If that’s the case does it portend steep ugly decline or a extra swish one? And, say it does result in a steep sudden decline, is that sufficient to maintain somebody like Freeman out of the Corridor of Fame? He’s bought a reasonably robust however most likely not full resume in that regard, so I’m questioning if he’s in peril of falling out of consideration with a tough drop off

Jay Jaffe: At 34 years outdated, Freeman NOT declining considerably is extra of a shock than if he have been declining, however the man remains to be carrying a 150 wRC+ so I don’t assume it’s actually time to panic; he hasn’t woken up with Chris Davis’ swing or Nathaniel Lowe’s. He’s checked plenty of bins for the Corridor of Fame, and whereas I don’t assume he’s a lock but, I anticipate he’ll get in with a traditional profession development.

Ben: What do you make of Snell and Montgomery’s terrible begins to the 12 months? Each arrived very late to spring coaching and didn’t even know the place they’d be enjoying till mid-March at earliest. Clearly there are plenty of components at play, however exhausting to not assume that this interfered with their prep for the season.

Jay Jaffe: Woof, was typing a solution and my complete pc simply crashed… cling tight

Jay Jaffe: I believe it’s totally potential that the late signing contributed to their rocky begins; in spite of everything, a part of coming to a brand new crew is constructing relationships with coaches and teammates, none extra essential for a pitcher than his catchers. That stated, it’s additionally on gamers to maintain themselves in form, and I ponder how a lot of their difficulties are as a result of they weren’t fairly prepared sufficient once they started recreation exercise.

Jay Jaffe: And sure, I get the temptation to Blame Boras, and he most likely misjudged their markets to a level — however he takes his orders from his shoppers, and they also bear culpability as effectively.

Sanford: Is there a cause why FanGraphs doesn’t have HR% (allowed) as an accessible pitching stat? Maybe I’m lacking it, however I by no means am capable of finding it on leaderboards or participant pages. Ok/9 and BB/9 are accompanied by Ok% and BB% (that are definitively extra helpful), however I’m shocked we’re nonetheless left with solely HR/9…one thing you may move up the chain?

Jay Jaffe: Agreed, it might be good to have. Will point out it.

grader135: Will tommy pham find yourself again in Arizona?

Jay Jaffe: Man, I do not know the place Tommy Pham will ship up however that man wants as a lot remedy as his wage can afford.

Jay Jaffe: Okay people, plenty of good questions nonetheless within the queue however I’ve to name it a day to go decide up my kiddo. Thanks for stopping by and have an excellent week