How Will The Rays Method The Deadline?

The Rays enter tonight’s sequence finale in opposition to the Cubs sitting on the backside of the AL East. They’re 32-36, inside two video games of the Purple Sox and Blue Jays, however any likelihood they’ve of retaining tempo with the Yankees and Orioles is gone. The Rays are 4 video games out of the ultimate Wild Card spot within the American League with 4 groups between them and the Twins.

Whereas that deficit is hardly insurmountable, the Rays have performed extra poorly than their document signifies. They’ve been outscored by 63 runs, a worse run differential than the Angels’ -60 mark. Solely the White Sox, Rockies, Marlins, and A’s — very possible the 4 worst groups within the majors — have been outscored by greater than Tampa Bay has. The Rays are within the backside third of the league in batting common and on-base proportion. Solely the White Sox and Miami have a worse slugging output. Tampa Bay’s rotation is twentieth in ERA; their bullpen is twenty third.

With that stage of play across the roster, it’s pretty exceptional that they’re solely 4 video games underneath .500. That’s principally attributable to a 12-5 document in one-run video games. That’s not a tempo that almost all groups can maintain over the course of a season, and it’s not as if the Rays have had a lights-out bullpen locking down each small lead.

As deadline season approaches, the Rays have performed like a workforce that appears prefer it gained’t have a lot selection however to promote. They actually haven’t resembled a membership that has made 5 straight journeys to the postseason and was among the best within the American League en path to 99 wins final yr. Some measure of regression was most likely inevitable. Tampa Bay entered the season with out three of its prime starters in Shane McClanahan, Jeffrey Springs and Drew Rasmussen. They traded their ace (Tyler Glasnow) earlier than his remaining yr underneath contract. Wander Franco had been the workforce’s greatest place participant. There was no technique to utterly substitute the manufacturing they had been dropping at shortstop with Franco on administrative go away whereas he faces sexual abuse prices within the Dominican Republic.

All that mentioned, the entrance workplace most likely didn’t anticipate the workforce struggling to this extent. Their points transcend the gamers who aren’t obtainable. Randy Arozarena is hitting .174/.282/.317 over 266 plate appearances. Yandy Díaz gained a batting title and completed sixth in AL MVP voting final season. He has a league common .255/.315/.375 slash line in a team-leading 295 journeys to the plate. Harold Ramírez had a .313/.353/.460 exhibiting in 122 video games a yr in the past. He hit .268/.284/.305 with just one homer in 48 contests earlier than being designated for project final week. Brandon Lowe missed six weeks with an indirect pressure and hasn’t hit effectively within the 27 video games he’s performed.

There are related tales on the pitching facet. The Rays acquired Aaron Civale final summer time to stabilize their injury-riddled rotation. The righty has been tagged for a 5.20 ERA throughout 14 begins. Zach Eflin has been stable — a 4.06 mark by way of 12 outings — however hasn’t carried out on the stage that earned him a sixth-place end in final yr’s Cy Younger balloting. Pete Fairbanks had a couple of rocky outings early within the season (though he’s discovered his kind since coming back from the injured record in mid-Could). Phil Maton, signed to pitch in a high-leverage function, has been hit exhausting.

Opposing groups have taken discover. Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic wrote yesterday that different golf equipment are monitoring in case Tampa Bay decides to orchestrate a deadline sell-off. Rosenthal lists Arozarena, Brandon Lowe and Díaz as potential buy-low targets for different groups. That trio, not coincidentally, are three of the 4 highest-paid gamers on the Tampa Bay roster.

Rosenthal studies that the Rays have but to noticeably entertain promoting, hoping the workforce will present indicators of a turnaround. There’s nonetheless time for that to occur earlier than the July 30 deadline. The Rays’ document in one-run video games will not be sustainable, nevertheless it has prevented them from falling utterly out of the playoff combine. The workforce hasn’t performed effectively, but there’s clearly extra expertise on the roster than they’ve proven by way of two-plus months.

Nonetheless, the Rays presumably gained’t have qualms about transferring veteran items if issues don’t enhance over the following six weeks. Tampa Bay’s entrance workplace is accustomed to dealing stars even whereas the workforce is in competition, constructing a expertise pipeline that usually retains them aggressive regardless of backside 5 payrolls.

Arozarena is making $8.1MM in his second of 4 journeys by way of the arbitration course of. Lowe is making $8.75MM within the remaining assured season of the extension he signed in Spring Coaching 2019. The workforce holds successive choices at $10.5MM and $11.5MM (with a $1MM buyout) for the following two years. The Rays simply prolonged Díaz through the 2022-23 offseason. He’s enjoying on an $8MM wage this yr and can make $10MM subsequent season. Tampa Bay holds a $12MM possibility for the ’26 marketing campaign.

Whereas nobody from that group is enjoying as much as their earlier requirements, they’d every have enchantment on the commerce market. Arozarena, who had been a effectively above-average hitter in each season earlier than this one, would internet a very robust haul. Díaz is a restricted defender, however he mixed for a .314/.406/.475 slash line between 2022-23. His $10MM wage for 2025 continues to be beneath market worth. Lowe ought to have the bottom commerce worth of the group given his damage historical past, however he’s one of many sport’s higher offensive second basemen at his greatest. Whereas the Rays are most likely trending towards declining subsequent season’s $10.5MM possibility, it supplies some contractual upside if Lowe finds his stride within the second half.

The gamers of intrigue transcend that trio of potential rebound targets. Third baseman Isaac Paredes has been the workforce’s greatest participant in 2024. He’s raking at a .291/.371/.479 clip and must be on tempo for his first All-Star nod. Paredes owns a .245/.341/.469 batting line in additional than 1200 plate appearances because the Rays pulled him from the Tigers within the Austin Meadows commerce. He’s enjoying on a $3.4MM wage this yr after qualifying for early arbitration as a Tremendous Two participant.

Paredes is underneath workforce management by way of 2027. The Rays would wish an enormous haul to noticeably entertain transferring him, however there’s some likelihood with prime third base prospect Junior Caminero ready within the wings. Eflin is due $11MM this season (making him the highest-paid participant on the workforce) and can gather $18MM subsequent yr. There’d be numerous curiosity at that value level for a high quality mid-rotation starter. Tampa Bay might get a modest return for Amed Rosario as a stable multi-positional participant on a $1.5MM wage. There’d be various ranges of curiosity in Fairbanks, Jason Adam, Garrett Cleavinger and Shawn Armstrong amongst contenders searching for bullpen depth.