High of the Order: Might This Be the (Short-term) Finish of Rays Magic?

Welcome again to High of the Order, the place each Tuesday and Friday I’ll be beginning your baseball day with some information, notes, and ideas concerning the recreation we love.

On Tuesday, I wrote about how the Brewers have been capable of leverage largely unheralded depth into a wonderful begin to their season. In a dialog concerning the column with considered one of my mates the next day, I referred to the Brewers as “Rays North” for his or her capacity to extract probably the most out of gamers and pile up wins. However actually, the Brewers are paving their very own path and the Rays are at one thing of a crossroads.

Coming into an enormous four-game sequence in opposition to the Orioles on Friday, the Rays are 31-31, and 13 video games again within the AL East. They’ve acquired 100 video games left, so there’s no have to panic simply but, however they’re liable to lacking the playoffs for the primary time since 2018, and for his or her first shedding season since 2017.

The ever-present depth that has outlined the Rays for a lot of Kevin Cash’s tenure simply hasn’t been there, particularly on the pitching facet. The bullpen, which has been fodder for cheeky memes each time the Rays choose a reliever up off waivers (I really like tweeting “1.80 ERA coming” for each arm they snag off the scrap heap), has plunged to twenty ninth in WAR, with the staff merely not possessing the breadth of arms that it has in years previous. The center relievers have been particularly troublesome; whereas Pete Fairbanks, Jason Adam, and Garrett Cleavinger have all been glorious as soon as the ball has gotten to them within the late innings, the bridge to them is crumbling.

And their starters aren’t serving to issues. Solely Ryan Pepiot and Zack Littell have ERAs under 4.00, and Aaron Civale and Taj Bradley have been hit particularly arduous. Bradley has tantalizing potential and may carve via hitters with the most effective of them when he’s on — he struck out eight batters in his first three innings in opposition to the Purple Sox two begins in the past — however when he’s off for an inning or two he will get completely hammered. He’s allowed seven homers throughout 5 begins. That inconsistency has fueled a rotation that ranks twenty sixth in WAR, and in contrast to in prior years, the Rays don’t have reinforcements on the way in which. Joe Rock is their solely prospect pitching significantly nicely at Triple-A.

It’s a bit extra encouraging — if not by a lot — that Tampa Bay sits nineteenth within the majors by place participant WAR, and perhaps that’s sufficient to conjure up some Rays magic. Nevertheless, I’m simply undecided this offense ought to even be this good. Isaac Paredes is nearly singlehandedly carrying the bats, with final yr’s core of Yandy Díaz (99 wRC+), Randy Arozarena (83 wRC+), and Josh Lowe (109 wRC+ in simply 15 video games thanks to some IL journeys) failing to assist him. I don’t suppose Díaz is immediately a mean bat; he received the batting title in 2023, continues to hit the ball arduous, and nonetheless makes nice swing selections. Arozarena is a unique story. His swing-and-miss points and newfound incapability to optimally hit the ball (his sweet-spot proportion is within the first percentile) don’t precisely give me hope {that a} turnaround is imminent.

So, the place do the Rays go from right here? Many different groups can be relieved in the event that they nonetheless had a .500 file as loads of their most vital gamers underperformed; these golf equipment may financial institution on some optimistic regression and resolve to improve their roster earlier than the commerce deadline. However that’s not how the Rays function, particularly in a particularly robust AL East.

Complicating issues is their payroll, which is presently at $97 million, by far the very best of the six years for which now we have payroll information at RosterResource. Whereas groups won’t ever open the books and say precisely what a specific payroll means for monetary losses and features, proprietor Stuart Sternberg claimed earlier than the season that the excessive payroll would result in “actual losses.” Sternberg added that he views these losses as price it as a result of he’d “wish to maintain [the successes] rolling,” and I’ve no actual cause to doubt that he signifies that; the Rays have been good for years, and he’d absolutely wish to have a proficient staff when the franchise’s new stadium ostensibly opens in 2028. What I’m undecided, although, is that if augmenting this deeply flawed staff to win this season is the most effective transfer. For the primary time shortly, I may see the Rays stepping into the exact opposite path.

The Rays are by no means ones to make enormous additions on the deadline — it’s extra complementary gamers like Nelson Cruz and Civale, and longer-term performs for untapped potential like Arozarena and Fairbanks — however that doesn’t imply they won’t make enormous subtractions. Tampa Bay is known for by no means having untouchables, and regardless of his anemic efficiency, groups are apparently quite interested in Arozarena. He has the third-highest wage on the staff, and I’ve no cause to imagine the Rays additionally wouldn’t entertain presents for his or her two highest earners, Zach Eflin and Díaz, if the return is commensurate and the entrance workplace thinks that such a transfer can be the most effective path towards bettering in 2025 and past. On a smaller scale, if the Rays are roughly .500 by the point the deadline rolls round, I’d be shocked to see Amed Rosario, Shawn Armstrong, Phil Maton, Chris Devenski, and Harold Ramírez nonetheless on the staff.

As ordinary, what the Rays find yourself doing on the deadline may result in some head-scratching; loads of their strikes throughout their stretch of success seemingly got here out of nowhere, and a few of these surprises hardly made sense on the time. However this is a corporation that’s at all times fascinated by what’s subsequent slightly than pushing all its chips in for a single season. And there’s no cause to suppose that this received’t be a fast reset slightly than a protracted rebuild. Subsequent yr, ace Shane McClanahan, Jeffrey Springs, and Drew Rasmussen are anticipated to return to the rotation after recovering from elbow accidents that may price them most or all of this season. Additionally, the Rays ought to have über-prospect Junior Caminero, who’s presently battling quad points in Triple-A, wholesome and able to contribute in 2025. And don’t overlook about Xavier Isaac, who’s tearing via the minors himself and may very well be an possibility for the large league membership as quickly as subsequent yr. Taking part in for subsequent season might be the sensible transfer for the Rays at this level, and if which means buying and selling away some expertise from this yr’s membership, then so be it.