Georgia faces a crucial vote: To join NATO or Russia.

Over the past decade, we have witnessed democratic backsliding and autocracy expanding around the globe.

Strongman leaders across Hungary to the Philippines pledge to restrict rights, crack down on civil society and crack down media freedom if their party wins power in October. Georgia’s Dream Party Prime Minister promises to ban opposition parties as part of his election platform should his Dream Party prevail and remove democratically-elected opposition members of parliament from parliament seats should his Dream Party win power in October.

Georgia was an oasis of hope when I moved there in 2014. Just prior to my arrival there had been an peaceful transfer from United National Movement government to broad coalition of opposition parties; widespread liberal democratic reforms were underway to address shortcomings in judiciary, parliament and elections; parliament even passed nondiscriminatory legislation and created gender equality council.

Georgia was pushing hard for EU and NATO membership, even setting up an entire ministry devoted to it. Russia, which occupies one quarter of Georgia, was seen as its main adversary while Europe and America stood behind Georgia’s efforts against Afghanistan as allies.

Over time, however, warning signs of illiberalism began to surface. Like in other backsliding democracies, signs of decline usually involve attacks against gays, women, ethnic or religious minorities as the initial indicator.

Georgia followed this playbook and codified heterosexual marriage into its constitution (though same-sex marriage had long been illegal), blackmailed women into public life through video recordings of private lives, removed quotas for women altogether with misogyny flaring up regularly, as well as making public attacks against Turks, Muslims, ethnic Azeris communities etc. narratives common place.

Prior to this point, Georgia Dream had held onto its position largely unchallenged until all parties abandoned it en masse and democratic declines accelerated significantly. Dream attacked civil society (termed its “enemies” and fascists), media, independent institutions that hold government accountable (e.g. the office of Ombudsman). Judicial and electoral reform initiatives came to a halt as well.

This year’s “foreign agents” law, similar to Russia’s agents law, seeks to eliminate one of Georgian Dream’s last remaining safeguards: civil society and media. It specifically targets organizations funded by U.S. or EU funding as “foreign agents”, demanding unreasonable paperwork requirements from them as “foreign agents”, while simultaneously threatening investigations, accessing private personal information as well as prison sentences against these institutions.

At first, when this law was proposed, Tbilisi saw months-long demonstrations with hundreds of thousands of protestors flooding its streets, with its government violently attacking their own citizens.

Georgia Dream’s anti-democratic measures and new legislation align with and likely necessitate an abrupt shift in Georgia’s foreign policy trajectory, given EU and NATO membership require reforms that threaten its power base.

Free and fair elections, impartial judiciary decisions, robust civil society participation and transparent institutions would level the playing field so Georgia Dream might not win outright. On the other hand, Georgia Dream’s informal leader Bidzina Ivanishvili views electoral defeat – and by extension democracy itself – as an existential threat and therefore has close ties with Vladimir Putin, thus protecting their party when stamping it out of power.

Georgia Dream was quickly emboldened to change the script following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, following Kremlin talking points of placing NATO and Western blame at their feet for inviting conflict into Georgia – with Georgia Dream leaders echoing Kremlin rhetoric by repeatedly placing NATO and Western blame, along with Hollywood and George Soros who “want war against Georgia,” so Georgians might join. By adopting such rhetoric Georgia Dream has strengthened ties to Russia through direct flights and sanctions-evasion.

Georgia Dream remains determined to insult U.S. and European leaders, diplomats and organizations, betting that Russia will prevail in this war and taking an approach of appeasement and abandonment of traditional allies.

Still, I was taken aback when one party’s campaign pledge was to eliminate opposition parties and mandates – I have traveled around the globe extensively but never before heard an electoral pledge to end democracy!

Even dictators like Russia’s Vladimir Putin seek to maintain some form of multiparty competition; Georgia is an illustration of that fact.

Not necessarily so – voters go to the polls in October to decide between an alliance with Russia or democracy; simultaneously they could choose between autocracy a la Belarus or true representative democracy.

Given Georgia Dream’s unequal playing field, coopted election commission, lack of unifying opposition forces and its rampant abuse of state resources, any democracy vote must be emphatic for it to achieve any significance – but even then an opposition victory might create further unrest and instability due to Russia’s pledged support and likely adoption of Maduro-esque denialism by Georgia Dream.

Why does Georgia matter for US and EU policymakers? Although small, Georgia stands on the frontlines in a larger battle between authoritarianism and Kremlin takeover. Moldova, Armenia and Azerbaijan form its Eastern border – each country bearing witness.

Georgia will likely vote for freedom this time, but either way it serves as a warning. U.S. and EU policymakers must quickly react to early warning signals, while being more aggressive about making the case for democracy against those who, to quote Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz), “turn away from universal values toward old ties of blood, race and sectarianism; harden resentment towards immigrants, refugees and minority groups; are unable to distinguish lies from truth; flirt with authoritarianism as our moral equivalent”.

Laura Thornton spent 25 years abroad working with democracy-promotion organizations from Thailand and Cambodia all the way to Georgia promoting democratic principles. Today, Laura serves as Senior Director for Global Democracy for The McCain Institute.