Frank Luntz indicators RFK Jr's backing might assist Trump win battlegrounds

Republican pollster Frank Luntz signaled that impartial presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s backing of former President Trump might assist him win battleground states in 2024. 

Luntz stated that whereas Kennedy’s ballot numbers have dropped since Vice President Harris ascended to the highest of the Democratic Get together presidential ticket, his remaining supporters might present sufficient backing to tip some swing-state leads to Trump’s favor. 

“It’s in all probability value about 1 % for Trump and that 1 % might be every little thing if it’s within the swing states,” Luntz stated throughout his Friday look on NewsNation’s “On Stability” with Leland Vittert. 

“Ultimately, the explanation why Kennedy was drawing 10, 12, at the same time as excessive as 14 % is as a result of he was taking votes away from Joe Biden,” he continued. “Joe Biden’s gone. Kamala Harris has changed him, and [Kennedy’s] vote collapsed right down to about 4 or 5 % and what’s left is a Trump vote.” 

“A few of them are merely not going to take part in November, roughly two to at least one, those who’re remaining will vote for Trump over Harris, and that is value a single %, and a single % could make the distinction in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin.” 

A poll from Cook dinner Political Report Swing State Undertaking launched in mid-August discovered that Harris was main or was tied with Trump in six of the seven swing-states. The survey discovered that she had a 1-point lead over Trump in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

Kennedy, who started his White Home run as a Democrat, switched his affiliation to run as an impartial in October. He garnered double-digit help within the polls. Lately, these numbers dipped to single digits. On Friday, he introduced a suspension of his marketing campaign and that he would endorse Trump. He stated he would take away his identify from ballots in battleground states to keep away from being a spoiler, however would nonetheless be on the poll within the majority of purple and blue states. 

Luntz additionally dinged the media, saying that Kennedy would have been portrayed otherwise had he endorsed Harris, not Trump. 

“If he had endorsed Harris, I do suppose he could be considered a hero however as a result of he endorsed Trump, the people who find themselves speaking that aren’t giving him the credit score that he deserves, and I feel we now have to watch out within the final 73 days of this election marketing campaign to grasp the motivations of the folks offering us data like what I am doing proper now, as a result of I’m devoted to getting this election right,” he stated. 

The pollster argued later that if Trump would marketing campaign on points like immigration and inflation, he would have a bonus, but when the 2024 election is about character traits, the vp has the higher hand. 

“Whether it is about attributes, if he continues to assault Harris and the way in which that he’s accomplished, and he will get away from inflation, which is de facto affordability, stops speaking about paycheck-to-paycheck voters, which is best than working class or center class, the language does matter right here, if he does that, he’s within the driver’s seat.”