Fantasy Basketball: Raphielle Johnson's Studs and Duds

Figuring out worth is important to fantasy basketball drafts, but it surely’s an inexact science. With that in thoughts, the Rotoworld workers has recognized a number of of its “studs” and “duds” forward of the 2024-25 season, predicting high- and low-value choices projected to go within the early, center, and late rounds of drafts. First up is Raphielle Johnson, who believes a younger Raptors star is in for a giant 2024-25.

STUD: Scottie Barnes

Earlier than a damaged left center finger ended Barnes’ season in early March, the Raptors ahead was an unbelievable asset to fantasy managers. In 60 video games, he accounted for 19.9 factors, 8.2 rebounds, 6.1 assists, 1.3 steals, 1.5 blocks, and 1.7 3-pointers in 34.9 minutes, taking pictures 47.5% from the sphere and 78.1% from the foul line. Barnes established career-highs in factors, rebounds, assists, steals, blocks, 3-pointers, and free-throw proportion, stepping as much as present he is able to being Toronto’s franchise cornerstone.

The items have modified round him, with Toronto buying and selling OG Anunoby and Pascal Siakam in the course of the 2023-24 season, which resulted in Barnes’ elevated fantasy worth. He was a prime 25 participant in 8- and 9-cat codecs (per recreation) whereas offering prime 50 worth in totals regardless of the season-ending damage. Add within the safety of a max extension, and there is a lot to love about Barnes in fantasy basketball this season.

DUD: Trae Younger

With Dejounte Murray being traded to the Pelicans this summer time, Younger has moved into the primary spherical in lots of fantasy drafts. On the floor degree, I actually get it. After two seasons wherein his utilization dipped into the low 30s, that quantity will improve, probably on par with the 2021-22 (34.4) and 2019-20 (34.9) campaigns. Nevertheless, that is very a lot an 8- vs. 9-cat scenario for me. In codecs the place turnovers aren’t counted, or a supervisor is keen to punt that class, Younger stands to be excellent.

However he averaged 4.4 turnovers per recreation final season, Younger’s highest quantity since 2019-20 (4.8), and the Hawks level guard has been answerable for not less than 4 in every of the final 5 years. Will the scoring improve to a degree the place the turnovers do not matter to managers in 9-cat leagues? It is potential, however the roster change may additionally impression Younger’s field-goal proportion. I am not saying Younger can not supply first-round worth, however I imagine that expectation could also be a bit a lot.

STUD: Brandon Miller

As a result of play of Victor Wembanyama and Chet Holmgren and Charlotte’s struggles, Miller’s rookie marketing campaign could have been missed by some. Ending third in Rookie of the 12 months voting, he averaged 17.3 factors, 4.3 rebounds, 2.4 assists, 0.9 steals, 0.6 blocks, and a pair of.5 3-pointers in 32.2 minutes, taking pictures 44.0% from the sphere and 82.7% from the foul line. Miller completed ranked simply exterior the highest 100 in 8- and 9-cat per-game worth whereas managing to crack that threshold in totals. What’s going to assist him this season are the returns of LaMelo Ball (ankle) and Mark Williams (again).

Having Ball on the courtroom ought to end in cleaner appears for your entire rotation, within the half-court and in transition. As for Williams, his presence within the paint may empower gamers like Miller to be extra lively defensively than final season. I am not anticipating elite defensive manufacturing from the Hornets’ second-year wing, however his steals (he averaged a steal per recreation after the All-Star break) and blocked pictures would enhance Miller’s standing in fantasy basketball.

DUD: Michael Porter Jr.

The 2023-24 season wasn’t straightforward for Porter, on the courtroom or off of it. Nevertheless, his early Yahoo ADP (67.7) feels manner too excessive. There’s room for a “market correction,” however MPJ solely has one prime 70 season to his credit score (2020-21). Dropping Kentavious Caldwell-Pope opens up a large gap throughout the Nuggets rotation on each ends of the ground.

The 1.6 3-pointers per recreation offered by KCP might be changed, however what in regards to the protection? Porter hasn’t supplied a lot worth within the steals and blocked shot classes, averaging 1.2 “shares” per recreation final season (matching his profession common). A constructive is that he did play 81 video games in 2023-24, the primary time MPJ has surpassed 65. Nevertheless, whereas the rebounding manufacturing elevated, the scoring decreased. I am involved about Porter’s fantasy upside; I might choose to take a much bigger swing within the sixth spherical of a normal league draft.

STUD: De’Anthony Melton

Whereas there’s been little concern relating to Stephen Curry, making sense of the remainder of the Warriors’ backcourt for fantasy functions has been difficult this offseason. With Klay Thompson transferring on to Dallas, a large gap within the rotation wants filling. Brandin Podziemski changed the veteran guard within the beginning lineup for a stretch final season, and he would look like the favourite to fill that void. Add in offseason signings Melton, and Buddy Hield and fourth-year wing Moses Moody, and coaching camp will not lack for competitors.

Nevertheless, even with accidents limiting him to 38 video games with the 76ers final season, Melton has lengthy been a favourite amongst some fantasy managers. He is not probably the most environment friendly scorer, taking pictures 41.0% for his profession and 38.6% final season. Nonetheless, the manufacturing in different classes makes him a worthwhile late-round choice in fantasy leagues. Melton has profession averages of three.7 rebounds, 1.4 steals, and 0.5 blocks; the rebounding quantity is not vital, however probably getting two defensive contributions per recreation from a job participant is nothing to scoff at. If Melton stays wholesome (he performed 73 and 77 video games the 2 seasons prior), he might be a steal in fantasy basketball.

DUD: Jalen Inexperienced

Scoring has not been a problem for Inexperienced since he entered the NBA in 2021, averaging 17.3, 22.1, and 19.6 factors per recreation for the Rockets. Nevertheless, that manufacturing has not finished a lot for his total fantasy standing, with final season being the primary wherein he completed throughout the prime 150 in per-game worth and the highest 100 in totals. Final season, along with the 19.6 factors per recreation, Inexperienced averaged 5.2 rebounds, 3.5 assists, 0.8 steals, 0.3 blocks, and a pair of.5 3-pointers whereas taking pictures 42.3% from the sphere and 80.4% from the foul line. The defensive manufacturing, or lack of it, is the largest concern for Inexperienced in class leagues, however the field-goal proportion would not assist.

Inexperienced’s finest stretch final season started in late February, a 20-game run wherein he accounted for 26.6 factors, 6.1 rebounds, 4.3 assists, 1.3 steals, 0.4 blocks, and three.7 3-pointers, taking pictures 46.5% from the sphere and 82.2% from the road. That manufacturing was good for top-25 per-game worth in 9-cat codecs. Nevertheless, Alperen Sengun (knee/ankle) solely performed six video games throughout that stretch and had the second-highest utilization amongst Rockets gamers (trailing solely Inexperienced). Whereas Inexperienced’s play throughout that interval was undoubtedly compelling, I am undecided I belief him relating to season-long fantasy worth. Add within the continued development of Amen Thompson and the return of Tari Eason, and I’ve my doubts relating to Inexperienced as a prime 100 fantasy participant.