Abstract
The much-anticipated first debate of 2024 between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump featured a relentless barrage of false and deceptive statements from the 2 candidates on immigration, the economic system, abortion, taxes and extra.
- Each candidates erred on Social Safety, with Biden incorrectly saying that Trump “desires to get rid” of this system, and Trump falsely alleging that Biden will “wipe out” Social Safety as a result of inflow of individuals on the border.
- Trump misleadingly claimed that he was “the one which bought the insulin down for the seniors,” not Biden. Prices have been lowered for some below a restricted mission by the Trump administration. Biden signed a regulation capping prices for all seniors with Medicare drug protection.
- Trump warned that Biden “desires to boost your taxes by 4 instances,” however Biden has not proposed something like that. Trump was additionally principally fallacious when he stated Biden “desires the Trump tax cuts to run out.” Biden stated he would lengthen them for anybody making below $400,000 a 12 months.
- Biden repeated his deceptive declare that billionaires pay a median federal tax price of 8%. That White Home calculation elements in earnings on unsold inventory as earnings.
- Trump repeated his false declare that “everyone,” together with all authorized students, needed to finish Roe v. Wade’s constitutional proper to abortion.
- Trump falsely claimed that “the one jobs” Biden “created are for unlawful immigrants and bounced again jobs that bounced again from the COVID.” Complete nonfarm employment is greater than it was earlier than the pandemic, as is the employment degree of native-born staff.
- Biden claimed that Trump oversaw the “largest deficit of any president,” whereas Trump countered that “we now have the biggest deficit” below Biden. The most important funds deficit was below Trump in fiscal 12 months 2020, however that was largely due to emergency spending resulting from COVID-19.
- Biden misleadingly stated that “Black unemployment is the bottom degree it has been in an extended, very long time.” The speed reached a report low in April 2023, and it was low below Trump, too, till the pandemic.
- Biden stated Trump referred to as U.S. veterans killed in World Conflict I “suckers and losers,” which Trump referred to as a “made up quote.” The Atlantic reported that, based mostly on nameless sources. A former Trump chief of workers later appeared to verify Trump stated it.
- Trump claimed that Biden “brought on the inflation,” however economists say rising inflation was principally resulting from disruptions to the economic system brought on by the pandemic.
- Trump grossly inflated the variety of immigrants who’ve entered the nation through the Biden administration — placing the quantity at 18 million to twenty million — and he stated, with out proof, that a lot of them are from prisons and psychological establishments.
- Trump claimed that “we had the most secure border in historical past” within the “last months” of his presidency. However apprehensions of these making an attempt to cross illegally within the final three full months of his presidency have been about 50% greater than within the three months earlier than he took workplace.
- Biden criticized Trump for presiding over a lack of jobs when he was president, however that loss occurred due to the COVID-19 pandemic.
- Trump falsely claimed that “some states” run by Democrats enable abortions “after start.” If it occurred, it might be murder, and that’s unlawful.
- Trump made the unsupported declare that the U.S. border with Mexico is “probably the most harmful place on the planet,” and steered that it has opened the nation to a violent crime wave. The info present a discount in violent crime within the U.S.
- Trump overstated how a lot meals costs have risen resulting from inflation. Costs are up by about 20%, not double or quadruple.
- Trump boasted his administration “had the most effective environmental numbers ever.” Trump reversed almost 100 environmental guidelines limiting air pollution. Though greenhouse fuel emissions did decline from 2019 to 2020, the EPA stated that was as a result of impacts of the pandemic on journey and the economic system.
- Biden stated he joined the Paris Settlement as a result of “if we attain the 1.5 levels Celsius, after which … there’s no manner again.” Limiting international warming to 1.5 levels would cut back the damages and losses of world warming, however scientists agree that local weather motion remains to be doable after passing the brink.
- Trump stated immigrants crossing the border illegally have been residing in “luxurious resorts.” New York Metropolis has supplied resort and motel rooms to migrant households, however there isn’t a proof that they’re being positioned in “luxurious” resorts.
- Trump falsely claimed that there was “no terrorism, in any respect” within the U.S. throughout his administration. There have been a number of terrorist acts carried out by foreign-born people when he was president.
- Whereas speaking about worldwide commerce, Trump falsely claimed that the U.S. at present has “the biggest deficit with China.” In 2023, the commerce deficit in items and providers with China was the bottom it has been since 2009.
- Trump wrongly claimed that previous to the pandemic, he had created “the best economic system within the historical past of our nation.” That’s removed from true utilizing economists’ most well-liked measure — development in gross home product.
- As he has many instances earlier than, Trump wrongly claimed, “I gave you the biggest tax reduce in historical past.” That’s not true both as a share of gross home product or in inflation-adjusted {dollars}.
- Trump contrasted his administration with Biden’s by misleadingly noting that when he left workplace, the U.S. was “vitality unbiased.” The U.S. continues to export extra vitality than it imports.
The debate was hosted by CNN in Atlanta on June 27.
Evaluation
Social Safety
Biden claimed that Trump “desires to get rid” of Social Safety, regardless that the previous president has persistently stated he won’t reduce this system and has suggested Republicans towards doing so.
Earlier this 12 months, Biden and his marketing campaign based mostly the declare on Trump saying in a March 11 CNBC interview that “there’s a lot you are able to do by way of entitlements by way of chopping and by way of additionally the theft and the unhealthy administration of entitlements.” As we’ve said, in context, as a substitute of lowering advantages, Trump was speaking about chopping waste and fraud in these applications — though there’s not sufficient of that to make this system solvent over the long run.
“I’ll by no means do something that may jeopardize or damage Social Safety or Medicare,” Trump later stated in a March 13 Breitbart interview. “We’ll need to do it elsewhere. However we’re not going to do something to harm them.”
Throughout the GOP presidential major, Trump additionally criticized a few of his Republican opponents for proposing to boost the retirement age for Social Safety, which funds specialists have said would cut back scheduled advantages for these affected.
Some critics of Trump have argued that he can’t be anticipated to maintain his promise due to his previous funds proposals. However, as we’ve written, Trump didn’t suggest cuts to Social Safety retirement advantages.
In the meantime, Trump claimed through the debate that Biden “goes to single handedly destroy Social Safety” due to unlawful immigration. “These hundreds of thousands and hundreds of thousands of individuals coming in, they’re making an attempt to place them on Social Safety. He’ll wipe out Social Safety,” Trump stated of Biden.
As we and others have defined earlier than, immigrants who will not be licensed to be within the U.S. aren’t eligible for Social Safety. In truth, as a result of many such people pay into Social Safety by way of payroll taxes however can not obtain advantages, unlawful immigrants bolster quite than drain the funds of this system.
Insulin
In referring to what seniors pay for insulin, Trump misleadingly claimed, “I heard him say earlier than ‘insulin.’ I’m the one which bought the insulin down for the seniors. I took care of the seniors.” Insulin prices went down for some beneficiaries below a restricted mission below Trump; Biden signed a extra expansive regulation affecting all seniors with Medicare drug protection.
Below Trump, out-of-pocket prices have been lowered to $35 for some Medicare Half D beneficiaries below a two-year pilot mission through which some insurers might voluntarily cut back the fee for some insulin merchandise. KFF, a nonpartisan well being coverage analysis group, explained earlier this month that below this mannequin, in impact from 2021 to 2023, “collaborating Medicare Half D prescription drug plans coated no less than one in every of every dosage type and sort of insulin product at not more than $35 per 30 days,” and “lower than half of all Half D plans selected to take part in every year.”
However in 2022, Biden signed a law that required all Medicare prescription drug plans to cap all insulin merchandise at $35. The regulation additionally capped the out-of-pocket worth for insulin that’s coated below Medicare Half B, which covers medication administered in a well being care supplier’s workplace. The caps went into impact final 12 months.
STAT, a information website that covers well being care points, reported that the concept for a $35 cap for seniors initially got here from Eli Lilly, the pharmaceutical firm, which proposed it in 2019.
Trump on Biden Tax Plan
“He’s the one one I do know he desires to boost your taxes by 4 instances,” Trump stated of Biden. “He desires to boost everyone’s taxes by 4 instances. He desires the Trump tax cuts to run out. So everyone … [is] going to pay 4 to 5 instances – no one ever heard of this earlier than.”
Trump repeatedly warns of huge tax hikes for “everyone,” ought to Biden be reelected. That doesn’t jibe with something Biden has proposed.
In his greater than three years as president, Biden’s major tax changes have included setting a minimum corporate tax rate of 15% and reducing taxes for some households by expanding the child tax credit and, for a time, making it absolutely refundable, that means households might nonetheless obtain a refund even when they now not owe further taxes.
As we wrote in 2020, when Trump made an identical declare, Biden proposed throughout that marketing campaign to boost an extra $4 trillion in taxes over the following decade, though the will increase would have fallen primarily on very high-income earners and companies. The plan wouldn’t have doubled or tripled individuals’s taxes at any earnings degree (on common), in keeping with analyses of Biden’s plan by the Penn Wharton Budget Model, the Tax Policy Center and the Tax Foundation.
In March 2023, the TPC’s Howard Gleckman wrote that Biden proposed a 2024 funds that will, on common, enhance after-tax incomes for low-income households and “depart them successfully unchanged for middle-income households.” The Tax Coverage Heart famous, “The highest 1 p.c, with no less than roughly $1 million in earnings, would pay a median of $300,000 greater than below present regulation, dropping their after-tax incomes by 14 p.c.”
This March, Biden launched his fiscal year 2025 budget, which accommodates most of the identical proposals and provides a couple of new wrinkles. But it surely nonetheless does not contain any “colossal tax hikes” on typical American households, as Trump has stated.
Biden’s newest plan proposes — as he has previously — to extend the company earnings tax price from 21% to twenty-eight%, and to restore the highest particular person tax price of 39.6% from the present price of 37%. It could additionally enhance the company minimal tax price from 15% to 21% for corporations that report common income in extra of $1 billion over a three-year interval. And the plan would impose a 25% minimal tax on very rich people. The plan additionally proposes to increase the expanded baby tax credit score enacted within the American Rescue Plan by way of 2025, and to make the kid tax credit score absolutely refundable on a everlasting foundation.
Trump can also be principally fallacious that Biden “desires the Trump tax cuts to run out.”
As he has stated for the reason that 2020 marketing campaign, Biden’s FY 2025 funds vows to not enhance taxes on individuals incomes lower than $400,000.
With a view to hold that pledge, Biden must lengthen a lot of the particular person earnings tax provisions enacted within the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act which can be set to run out on the finish of 2025. And that’s what Biden says he would do — however only for particular person filers incomes lower than $400,000 and married {couples} making lower than $450,000. (With a view to go the TCJA with a easy Senate majority, Republicans wrote the regulation to have a lot of the particular person earnings tax adjustments expire after 2025.)
The Biden funds plan “would increase marginal earnings tax charges confronted by greater earners and companies whereas increasing tax credit for lower-income households,” in keeping with a Tax Basis analysis of the tax provisions in Biden’s funds. “The funds would redistribute earnings from excessive earners to low earners. The underside 60 p.c of earners would see will increase in after-tax earnings in 2025, whereas the highest 40 p.c of earners would see decreases.”
Biden on Taxes Paid by Billionaires
In arguing that rich households ought to pay a minimal tax, Biden repeated his deceptive declare that billionaires pay a median federal tax price of 8%.
“We now have a thousand … billionaires in America, and what’s taking place?” Biden said. “They’re in a state of affairs the place they actually pay 8.2% in taxes.”
That’s not the common price within the present tax system; it’s a determine calculated by the White Home and elements in earnings on unsold inventory as earnings. When solely contemplating earnings, the top-earning taxpayers, on common, pay greater tax charges than these in decrease earnings teams, as we’ve written earlier than.
The highest 0.1% of earners pay a median price of 25.1% in federal earnings and payroll taxes, according to an evaluation by the Tax Coverage Heart in October 2022 for the 2023 tax 12 months.
The purpose that Biden tried to make is that earnings on belongings, comparable to inventory, at present will not be taxed till that asset is offered, which is when the earnings turn into topic to capital features taxes. Till shares and belongings are offered, the earnings are known as “unrealized” features. Unrealized features, the White Home has argued, might go untaxed perpetually if rich individuals maintain on to them and switch them on to heirs after they die.
Roe v. Wade
As he has before, Trump wildly exaggerated the recognition of ending Roe v. Wade — even going as far as to assert that it was “one thing that everyone needed.”
“51 years in the past, you had Roe v. Wade and everyone needed to get it again to the states,” he said, referring to the 1973 Supreme Court docket ruling that established a constitutional proper to abortion, which was overturned in 2022.
Trump: Everyone, with out exception: Democrats, Republicans, liberals, conservatives. Everyone needed it again — spiritual leaders. And what I did is I put three nice Supreme Court docket justices on the court docket and so they occurred to vote in favor of killing Roe v. Wade, and shifting it again to the states. That is one thing that everyone needed. Now 10 years in the past or in order that they began speaking about what number of weeks and what number of this and moving into different issues. However each authorized scholar all through the world — probably the most revered — needed it introduced again to the states. I did that.
In truth, a majority of People have disagreed with ending Roe v. Wade, together with loads of authorized students, as we’ve defined before. Whereas some students criticized features of the authorized reasoning in Roe, it didn’t essentially imply they needed the ruling overturned. Authorized specialists advised us that Trump’s declare was “utter nonsense” and “patently absurd.”
Trump Mistaken on Jobs
After Biden talked about job creation throughout his administration, Trump falsely claimed that “the one jobs [Biden] created are for unlawful immigrants and bounced again jobs that bounced again from the COVID.”
In truth, as of Could, total nonfarm employment within the U.S. had gone up about 6.2 million from the pre-pandemic peak in February 2020, in keeping with figures from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The rise is about 15.6 million when you depend from when Biden took workplace in January 2021 till now — however that would come with some jobs that have been quickly misplaced through the pandemic after which got here again through the financial restoration.
Moreover, there isn’t a proof that solely “unlawful immigrants” have seen employment features.
Since Biden turned president in January 2021, employment of U.S.-born staff has elevated greater than employment of foreign-born staff, a class that features anybody who wasn’t a U.S. citizen at start, as we’ve written before. BLS says the foreign-born inhabitants consists of “legally-admitted immigrants, refugees, short-term residents comparable to college students and short-term staff, and undocumented immigrants.” There isn’t any employment breakdown for simply individuals within the U.S. illegally.
In taking a look at employment for the reason that pre-pandemic peak, the employment degree of foreign-born workers was up by about 3.2 million, from roughly 27.7 million in February 2020 to just about 30.9 million in Could. Employment for the U.S.-born population elevated by about 125,000 — from almost 130.3 million in February 2020 to 130.4 million, as of Could.
Conflicting Finances Deficit Claims
Biden and Trump accused one another of presiding over the biggest funds deficit within the U.S.
After speaking about Trump’s plans for extra tax cuts, Biden stated Trump already had the “largest deficit of any president in American historical past.” When he bought an opportunity to reply, Trump stated, “We now have the biggest deficit within the historical past of our nation below this man,” referring to Biden.
Biden is right: The largest budget deficit on report was about $3.1 trillion in fiscal 12 months 2020 below Trump. Nonetheless, that was primarily due to trillions of {dollars} in emergency funding that each congressional Republicans and Democrats authorised to deal with the COVID-19 pandemic. Earlier than the pandemic, the biggest funds deficit below Trump was about $1 trillion in fiscal 2019.
In the meantime, the newest funds deficit below Biden was about $1.7 trillion in fiscal 2023. As of June, the nonpartisan Congressional Finances Workplace projected that the deficit for fiscal 2024, which ends on Sept. 30, can be about $2 trillion.
Black Unemployment
Biden boasted that on his watch, “Black unemployment is the bottom degree it has been in an extended, very long time.”
It’s true that the unemployment price for Black or African American individuals reached a report low of 4.8% in April 2023, however it’s at present 6.1%, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which has knowledge going again to 1972.
Additionally, the unemployment price was low below Trump, too, till the pandemic.
Below Trump, the unemployment rate for Black Americans went down to five.3% in August 2019 – the bottom on report at the moment. It shot as much as 16.9% in April 2020, when the financial results of the pandemic took maintain. When Trump left workplace in January 2021, amid the pandemic, the speed was 9.3%.
The speed has been 6% or much less in solely 29 months since 1972, and it occurred solely below two presidents: 21 instances below Biden and eight instances below Trump.
‘Suckers and Losers’
Biden said Trump referred to as U.S. veterans killed in World Conflict I “suckers and losers,” which Trump referred to as a “made up quote … that was in a third-rate journal.”
It was first reported by {a magazine} — the Atlantic — however Trump’s former chief of workers, John F. Kelly, a retired four-star Marine common, later appeared to verify it.
Biden was referring to a visit Trump made to France in November 2018, the place he reportedly declined to go to the Aisne-Marne American Cemetery close to the placement of the Battle of Belleau Wooden. “He was standing together with his four-star common and he advised him, ‘I don’t wish to go in there as a result of they’re a bunch of losers and suckers.’”
The Atlantic wrote about this alleged incident in 2020, citing unnamed sources. The journal wrote that Trump made his comment about “losers” when he declined to go to the Aisne-Marne American Cemetery, and his comment about “suckers” throughout that very same journey.
The Atlantic, Sept. 3, 2020: In a dialog with senior workers members on the morning of the scheduled go to, Trump stated, “Why ought to I’m going to that cemetery? It’s stuffed with losers.” In a separate dialog on the identical journey, Trump referred to the greater than 1,800 marines who misplaced their lives at Belleau Wooden as “suckers” for getting killed.
In October 2023, Kelly – who was on that journey and visited the Aisne-Marne Cemetery — gave a statement to CNN that appeared to verify these remarks. CNN revealed Kelly’s assertion.
CNN, Oct. 3, 2023: “What can I add that has not already been stated?” Kelly stated, when requested if he needed to weigh in on his former boss in mild of current feedback made by different former Trump officers. “An individual that thinks those that defend their nation in uniform, or are shot down or significantly wounded in fight, or spend years being tortured as POWs are all ‘suckers’ as a result of ‘there’s nothing in it for them.’ An individual that didn’t wish to be seen within the presence of army amputees as a result of ‘it doesn’t look good for me.’ An individual who demonstrated open contempt for a Gold Star household – for all Gold Star households – on TV through the 2016 marketing campaign, and rants that our most treasured heroes who gave their lives in America’s protection are ‘losers’ and wouldn’t go to their graves in France.”
Trump stated, “We had 19 individuals who stated I didn’t say it.” A type of who stated that he didn’t hear Trump make these remarks is John Bolton, Trump’s former nationwide safety adviser who was additionally on the journey and stated he was there when the choice was made to not go to the cemetery.
“I didn’t hear that,” Bolton told the New York Times in 2020 after the journal story first appeared. “I’m not saying he didn’t say them later within the day or one other time, however I used to be there for that dialogue.”
Biden Misleads on Jobs
Biden ignored the financial influence of the COVID-19 pandemic when he criticized Trump for employment taking place over Trump’s time in workplace.
“He’s the one president apart from Herbert Hoover that misplaced extra jobs than he had when he started,” Biden stated.
Job development throughout Trump’s time period was optimistic till the economic system misplaced 20.5 million jobs in April 2020, as efforts to gradual the unfold of the novel coronavirus led to enterprise closures and layoffs. By the point Trump left workplace in January 2021, employment had partly rebounded, however was nonetheless 9.4 million jobs under the February 2020 peak, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Inflation
Trump repeatedly claimed that Biden “brought on the inflation” and that “I gave him a rustic with no basically no inflation. It was good. It was so good.”
It’s true that inflation was comparatively modest when Trump was president. The Consumer Price Index rose 7.6% below Trump’s 4 years — persevering with an extended interval of low inflation. And inflation has been excessive over the whole thing of Biden’s time in workplace. The Consumer Price Index for all objects rose 19.3% between January 2021 and Could.
For a time, it was the worst inflation in a long time. The 12 months ending in June 2022 noticed a 9% enhance within the CPI (earlier than seasonal adjustment), which the Bureau of Labor Statistics said was the most important such enhance for the reason that 12 months ending in November 1981.
Inflation has moderated extra not too long ago. The CPI rose 3.3% within the 12 months ending in Could, the newest determine out there.
Though Trump claims that Biden is fully liable for huge inflation, economists we have spoken to say Biden’s insurance policies are solely partly accountable. The economists positioned the lion’s share of the blame for inflation on disruptions to the economic system brought on by the pandemic, together with provide shortages, labor points and elevated shopper spending on items. Inflation was then worsened by Russia’s assault on Ukraine, which drove up oil and fuel costs, specialists advised us.
Certainly, inflation has been a worldwide problem post-pandemic.
Nonetheless, many economists say Biden’s insurance policies — notably aggressive stimulus spending early in his presidency to offset a few of the financial harm brought on by the pandemic — performed a modest function.
Jason Furman, a former financial adviser to President Barack Obama and now a Harvard College professor, advised us in June 2022 that he estimated about 1 to 4 share factors value of the inflation was resulting from Biden’s stimulus spending within the American Rescue Plan — a $1.9 trillion pandemic reduction measure that included $1,400 checks to most People; expanded unemployment advantages; and cash for faculties, small companies and states. Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s — whose work is commonly cited by the White Home — stated the influence of the stimulus measure now “has largely pale.”
Economists observe that the American Rescue Plan got here after two different pandemic stimulus legal guidelines enacted below Trump that have been worth a total of $3.1 trillion. That spending, too, might have contributed to inflation.
Immigrants Coming into U.S. Below Biden
Trump grossly inflated the variety of immigrants who’ve entered the nation through the Biden administration — placing the quantity at 18 million to twenty million. The quantity, by our calculation, is a couple of third of that. Trump additionally claimed, with out proof, that a lot of these immigrants are from prisons and psychological establishments.
“It could possibly be 18, it could possibly be 19, and even 20 million individuals,” Trump stated of the immigrants who’ve entered the U.S. through the Biden administration. Later within the debate, Trump requested Biden why there had been no accountability “for permitting 18 million individuals many from prisons, many from psychological establishments” into the nation.
That’s a significantly exaggerated quantity. We took a deep dive into the immigration numbers in February, and once more in mid-June, and we got here up with an estimate of at most a 3rd of Trump’s quantity.
Right here’s the breakdown:
Division of Homeland Safety knowledge present almost 8 million encounters on the U.S.-Mexico border between February 2021, the month after Biden took workplace, and Could, the final month of obtainable statistics. That’s a determine that features each the 6.9 million apprehensions of migrants caught between authorized ports of entry – the quantity sometimes used for unlawful immigration – and almost 1.1 million encounters of migrants who arrived at ports of entry with out authorization to enter the U.S.
DHS additionally has complete knowledge, by way of February, of the preliminary processing of those encounters. That info reveals 2.9 million have been eliminated by Customs and Border Safety and three.2 million have been launched with notices to look in immigration court docket or report back to Immigration and Customs Enforcement sooner or later, or different classifications, comparable to parole. (Encounters don’t symbolize the overall variety of individuals, as a result of some individuals try a number of crossings. For instance, the recidivism price was 27% in fiscal 12 months 2021, according to the most recent figures from CBP.)
As we’ve explained before, there are additionally estimates for “gotaways,” or migrants who crossed the border illegally and evaded the authorities. Primarily based on a median annual apprehension price of 78%, which DHS supplied to us, that will imply there have been an estimated 1.8 million gotaways from February 2021 to February 2024. The gotaways plus these launched with court docket notices or different designations would complete about 5 million.
There have been additionally 407,500 transfers of unaccompanied youngsters to the Division of Well being and Human Companies and 883,000 transfers to ICE. The ICE transfers embrace those that are then booked into ICE custody, enrolled in “alternatives to detention” (which embrace technological monitoring) or launched by ICE. We don’t know what number of of these have been launched into the nation with a court docket discover. However even when we embrace these figures, it nonetheless doesn’t get us to anyplace close to 18 to twenty million.
And we must always observe that these figures don’t mirror whether or not a migrant might finally be allowed to remain or might be deported, notably since there’s a yearslong backlog of immigration court docket instances.
Additionally, as we have now written repeatedly, Trump has supplied no credible assist for his incendiary declare that nations are emptying their prisons and psychological establishments and sending these individuals to the U.S. Consultants inform us they’ve seen no proof to substantiate it.
Earlier this month, we looked into Trump’s declare because it pertains to Venezuela, as a result of Trump has repeatedly cited a drop in crime there to assist his declare about nations emptying their prisons and sending inmates to the U.S. Reported crime is trending down in Venezuela, however crime specialists within the nation say there are quite a few causes for that — together with an infinite out-migration of residents and a consolidation of gang exercise — and so they don’t have anything to do with sending criminals to the U.S.
“We now have no proof that the Venezuelan authorities is emptying the prisons or psychological hospitals to ship them overseas, whether or not to the USA or another nation,” Roberto Briceño-León, founder and director of the unbiased Venezuelan Observatory of Violence, advised us.
Border Below Trump
Trump claimed that “we had the most secure border in historical past” within the “last months” of his presidency, in keeping with Border Patrol. However in keeping with data supplied by Customs and Border Safety, apprehensions of these making an attempt to cross illegally into the U.S. within the final three full months of Trump’s presidency have been about 50% greater than within the three months earlier than he took workplace.
In truth, as we wrote in our piece, “Trump’s Final Numbers,” unlawful border crossings, as measured by apprehensions at the southwest border, have been 14.7% greater in Trump’s last 12 months in workplace in contrast with the final full 12 months earlier than he was sworn in.
However these statistics inform solely a part of the story. The variety of apprehensions fluctuated wildly throughout Trump’s presidency, from a monthly low of 11,127 in April 2017 to a excessive of 132,856 in Could 2019.
Again in April, we wrote a couple of deceptive chart that Trump confirmed to the gang throughout a speech in Inexperienced Bay, Wisconsin. “See the arrow on the underside? That was my final week in workplace,” Trump stated. “That was the bottom quantity in historical past.” However Trump was fallacious on each factors.
The arrow was pointing to apprehensions in April 2020, when apprehensions plummeted through the top of the pandemic.
“The pandemic was liable for a near-complete halt to all types of international mobility in 2020, resulting from a mix of border restrictions imposed by nations around the globe,” Michelle Mittelstadt, director of communications for the Migration Coverage Institute, advised us.
After apprehensions reached a pandemic low in April 2020, they rose each month after that. In his final months in workplace, apprehensions had greater than quadrupled from that pandemic low and have been greater than the month he took workplace.
Abortion
Trump falsely claimed that “some states” run by Democrats enable abortions “after start.” As we have written, that’s merely false. If it occurred, it might be homicide, and that’s illegal.
“No such process exists,” the American School of Obstetricians and Gynecologists says on its web site.
The previous president has wrongly said that abortions after start have been permitted below Roe v. Wade — the Supreme Court docket ruling that established a constitutional proper to abortion till it was reversed in 2022. It was not.
Below Roe, states might outlaw abortion after fetal viability, however with exceptions for dangers to the life or well being of the mom. Many Republicans have objected to the well being stipulation, saying it might enable abortion for any motive. Democrats say exceptions are wanted to guard the mom from medical dangers. We should always observe, late-term abortions are rare. In keeping with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, lower than 1% of abortions within the U.S. in 2020 have been carried out after 21 weeks gestational time.
In June 2022, after Trump had appointed three conservative justices to the Supreme Court docket, the court docket overturned Roe in a 5-4 ruling. Biden supports restoring Roe as “the regulation of the land,” as he stated in his State of the Union handle in March.
Trump Calls Border ‘The Most Harmful Place’
In his concentrate on the U.S. border with Mexico, Trump made the unsupported declare that it’s “probably the most harmful place on the planet.”
It’s true that unauthorized border crossings can be dangerous — 895 individuals died whereas doing so in fiscal 12 months 2022, which is the newest 12 months for which the Customs and Border Safety has data. Most of these deaths have been warmth associated.
And the Worldwide Group for Migration referred to as calendar 12 months 2022 “the deadliest 12 months on report” for migration within the Americas, with a complete of 1,457 fatalities all through South America, Central America, North America and the Caribbean. The group started monitoring deaths and disappearances associated to migration in 2014.
“Most of those fatalities are associated to the dearth of choices for secure and common mobility, which will increase the chance that folks see no different selection however to go for irregular migration routes that put their lives in danger,” the group stated in its 2022 report.
Trump steered that the border crossings imperil People when he went on to say, “these killers are coming into our nation, and they’re raping and killing girls.”
However, as we’ve written before, FBI knowledge present a downward development in violent crime within the U.S., and there’s no proof to assist the declare that there’s been against the law wave pushed by immigrants.
Crime analyst Jeff Asher, co-founder of the New Orleans agency AH Datalytics, advised us in Could that there’s no proof within the knowledge to point a migrant crime wave.
Equally, Jeffrey Butts, director of the Analysis and Analysis Heart on the John Jay School of Legal Justice, told the New York Times in February there was no proof of a migrant crime wave in New York Metropolis after Texas Gov. Greg Abbott started busing migrants there in April 2022.
“I’d interpret a ‘wave’ to imply one thing important, significant and a departure from the norm,” Butts stated on the time. “To date, what we have now are particular person incidents of crime.”
Additionally, it’s value noting that the Institute for Economics and Peace’s Global Peace Index — which measures the security of 163 nations based mostly on 23 indicators, together with violent crime, deaths from inner battle and terrorism — stated the “least peaceable nation” is Afghanistan, adopted by Yemen, Syria, South Sudan and the Democratic Republic of the Congo.
Meals Prices
In discussing inflation, the previous president embellished the diploma to which meals costs have elevated.
“It’s killing individuals. They will’t purchase groceries anymore,” Trump stated. “You take a look at the price of meals, the place it’s doubled, tripled and quadrupled. They will’t dwell.”
In keeping with the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Client Worth Index for meals has gone up 17.5% — not 100% to 300% — since January 2021. The Client Worth Index particularly for groceries, or “meals at house,” has risen 20.8%.
Local weather Change
Throughout a brief change about local weather change, Trump boasted that in his tenure “we had the most effective environmental numbers ever.” It isn’t clear what he was referring to precisely, however he stated if elected president he needed to have “completely immaculate clear water and I need completely clear air — and we had it.” He might need been referring to a speaking level that Andrew Wheeler, Trump’s former Environmental Safety Company administrator, had advisable Trump point out through the debate: “CO2 emissions went down” throughout his administration, as the Hill reported.
Greenhouse fuel emissions, that are liable for international warming, did decline from 2019 to 2020. However that was “largely as a result of impacts of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic on journey and financial exercise,” in keeping with the EPA. Emissions elevated by 5.7% from 2020 to 2022, as soon as the economic system began getting reactivated once more, the company stated.
In keeping with an analysis by the New York Times, Trump’s administration reversed almost 100 environmental guidelines, together with 28 rules on air air pollution and emissions, and eight guidelines that restricted water air pollution. Reportedly, Trump recently asked oil executives and lobbyists to donate to his marketing campaign, promising he would roll again different environmental guidelines that damage fossil gas pursuits.
“He’s not completed a rattling factor for the atmosphere,” Biden stated in response, stating that Trump had pulled the U.S. out of the Paris Agreement. “I instantly joined it as a result of if we attain the 1.5 levels Celsius … there’s no manner again,” Biden stated.
As we’ve reported, though reaching 1.5 levels Celsius, or 2.7 levels Fahrenheit, of warming comes with quite a few very critical impacts, it isn’t a degree of no return. Scientists agree that each increment of world warming will increase these unfavorable impacts, however 1.5 levels isn’t a magic quantity after which all the things is doomed, they are saying.
Immigrants Dwelling in Resorts
Throughout the debate, Trump mentioned twice that whereas immigrants crossing the border illegally have been “residing in luxurious resorts,” in New York Metropolis and different cities “our veterans reside on the street.”
Whereas it’s true that New York Metropolis has provided hotel rooms to migrant households as a brief shelter resolution, there isn’t a proof that immigrants are being positioned in “luxurious” resorts.
In 2023, Mayor Eric Adams signed a $275 million contract with the Resort Affiliation of New York Metropolis to accommodate 5,000 migrants. The deal was meant to assist struggling hotels impacted by the pandemic and didn’t anticipate to incorporate luxurious resorts. “There aren’t any gold-plated rooms which can be being given away opposite to any reviews that you’ll have seen,” the affiliation president told NY1 on the time. In January, town signed one other $77 million contract to shelter migrant households in resorts.
In April, social media posts falsely claimed immigrants had stormed New York Metropolis Corridor to demand luxurious resort lodging. However because the Associated Press reported, the immigrants have been there for a listening to about racial inequities in shelter and immigrant providers.
In 2023, the variety of veterans experiencing homelessness elevated 7.4% from 2022, in keeping with data from the Division of Housing and City Growth. However homelessness amongst veterans has been declining in recent times, with a 4% total discount inside the final three years alone.
Terrorist Assaults Below Trump
Whereas speaking about Iran and terrorism, Trump falsely claimed that “you had no terror, in any respect, throughout my administration.” As we’ve written, there have been a number of acts of terrorism carried out by foreign-born people when Trump was in workplace.
For instance, in October 2017, Sayfullo Saipov used a truck to run down individuals in New York Metropolis. He killed eight individuals, including People and vacationers, in an assault carried out on behalf of the Islamic State.
Then in December 2017, Akayed Ullah detonated a home made pipe bomb he was sporting inside a New York Metropolis subway station. Ullah told authorities he did it in response to U.S. airstrikes towards the Islamic State in Syria and different locations.
Then in December 2019, Second Lt. Mohammed Saeed Alshamrani, a member of the Royal Saudi Air Power, shot 11 individuals at Florida’s Naval Air Station Pensacola, killing three U.S. sailors. Trump’s personal legal professional common, William Barr, called it an act of terrorism in January 2020. “The proof reveals that the shooter was motivated by jihadist ideology,” Barr stated in a press release.
China Commerce Deficit
When discussing U.S. commerce relations with China, Trump stated “we have now the biggest deficit with China.” That’s false, as we’ve written.
In 2023, the U.S. had a commerce deficit with China in items and providers of roughly $252 billion, according to revised figures the Bureau of Financial Evaluation released in early June. The deficit in items buying and selling was about $279 billion which was partially offset by a roughly $27 billion surplus within the buying and selling of services — which might embrace journey, transportation, finance and mental property.
The commerce hole with China final 12 months was the bottom it had been since 2009, when it was $220 billion.
In truth, in keeping with BEA knowledge going again to 1999, the very best complete U.S.-China commerce deficit in items and providers was about $378 billion in 2018 — when Trump was president. Below Biden, the very best commerce deficit with China was $366 billion in 2022.
Not ‘Best Economic system’ Below Trump
Trump falsely stated that previous to the pandemic, the U.S. had “the best economic system within the historical past of our nation. … Every part was locked in good.”
Trump’s boast about creating the “best economic system in historical past” is ubiquitous in his marketing campaign speeches. And it’s not true, no less than not by the target measure sometimes used to gauge the well being of the economic system.
As we have written, economists typically measure a nation’s well being by the expansion of its inflation-adjusted gross domestic product. Below Trump, development was modest. Actual GDP in Trump’s 4 years grew yearly by 2.5% in 2017, 3% in 2018 and a pair of.5% in 2019 — earlier than the economic system went right into a tailspin through the pandemic in 2020, when actual GDP declined by 2.2%, according to the Bureau of Financial Evaluation.
So, in the most effective 12 months below Trump, U.S. actual GDP grew yearly by 3%. Against this, the nation’s economic system grew at a sooner annual price 48 times and below each president earlier than and after Trump courting to 1930, besides Barack Obama and Herbert Hoover. The economic system grew at greater than 3% six of Ronald Reagan’s eight years, together with 7.2% in 1984, and it grew 5% or extra 10 instances below Franklin D. Roosevelt, together with 18.9% in 1942. Under Biden, the GDP grew by 5.8% in 2021 — a put up COVID-19 bounce-back — by 1.9% in 2022 and a pair of.5% in 2023.
Trump’s Was Not Largest Tax Minimize in Historical past
As he has many instances earlier than, Trump wrongly claimed, “I gave you the biggest tax reduce in historical past.” However saying this again and again, as Trump has for years, doesn’t make it any extra true.
As we have been writing even earlier than the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act was enacted into regulation, whereas the regulation supplied tax reduction to just about all People, it was not the biggest tax reduce in U.S. historical past both as a share of gross home product (the measure most well-liked by economists) or in inflation-adjusted {dollars}.
In keeping with a Tax Coverage Heart analysis, the regulation diminished the person earnings taxes owed by People by about $1,260 on common in 2018. It additionally diminished the highest company tax price from 35% to 21%, starting in January 2018.
The regulation signed by Trump was initially projected to price $1.49 trillion over 10 years, according to the nonpartisan Joint Committee on Taxation. It might find yourself costing considerably extra if particular person tax provisions are prolonged previous 2025. Over the primary 4 years, the common annual price was estimated to be $185 billion. That was about 0.9% of gross domestic product in 2018.
That’s nowhere near President Ronald Reagan’s 1981 tax reduce, which was 2.89% of GDP over a four-year common. That’s in keeping with a 2013 Treasury Department analysis on the income results of main tax laws. 5 extra tax measures since 1940 had an influence bigger than 1% of GDP, and the Committee for a Accountable Federal Finances includes a 1921 measure as additionally being bigger than the 2017 plan. That’s eighth place for Trump’s “greatest tax reduce in our historical past.”
In inflation-adjusted {dollars}, the Trump-era tax reduce can also be lower than the American Taxpayer Reduction Act of 2012, which is available in at No. 1 with a $320.6 billion price over a four-year common. And it’s lower than tax reductions in 2010 ($210 billion) and 1981 ($208 billion).
Power Independence
Trump boasted, as he often does, that “on Jan. 6 [2021], we have been vitality unbiased,” implying that’s now not the case below Biden. However by Trump’s definition, the nation stays vitality unbiased.
To be clear, below Trump, the U.S. by no means stopped importing sources of vitality, including crude oil, from different nations. What he doubtless means is that the nation both produced extra vitality than it consumed, or exported extra vitality than it imported. Throughout Trump’s presidency, after years trending in that route, the U.S. did hit a tipping level the place exports of major vitality exceeded vitality imports from international sources in 2019 and 2020 — the primary instances that had occurred since 1952, according to the U.S. Power Info Administration.
However opposite to Trump’s suggestion, that has continued within the Biden presidency. The U.S., throughout Biden’s presidency, has exported extra vitality, including petroleum, than it imported, and it has produced extra vitality than it consumed. Additionally, the U.S. is producing report quantities of oil and natural gas below Biden.
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