Eliminator Problem Week 1: NFL picks, predictions, ideas

Week 1 has historically been one of the vital tough weeks in ESPN Eliminator Challenge, particularly just lately. Over the past two seasons, groups favored by not less than 4 factors in Week 1 are simply 6-7-1, resulting in many early eliminations.

Final season, the 2 chalky Week 1 picks each survived (Baltimore Ravens, Washington Commanders), whereas the following two hottest picks have been upset. Two years in the past, the chalkiest decide received (Ravens), however the three next-most fashionable decisions both misplaced (Denver Broncos, Tennessee Titans) or tied (Indianapolis Colts). Total, the second-most fashionable alternative in Week 1 Eliminator Problem has misplaced in three of the final 4 seasons.

This season shapes up equally to earlier years with one apparent alternative on paper. The Cincinnati Bengals are the one group favored by greater than a landing at ESPN BET and have one of the best probability to win this week in accordance with each ESPN Analytics and Mike Clay’s mannequin. Not surprisingly, they’re additionally the preferred decide, as 30% of entrants choosing them as of Tuesday night. They’re additionally our high decide for Week 1, as we’ll trip the chalk.

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Click on right here to obtain Mike Clay’s Eliminator Cheat Sheet, up to date weekly. Odds present as of publish time, courtesy of ESPN BET

High picks

1. Cincinnati Bengals (vs. New England Patriots)
Paycor Stadium, Cincinnati, OH
Sunday 1 p.m. ET

It is the chalky decide for a cause. Whereas underdogs are inclined to overachieve in Week 1, the most important favorites are inclined to handle enterprise. Groups favored by greater than a landing in Week 1 are 26-4 outright over the past 15 seasons (.867), whereas groups favored between 4-7 factors are 61-25-1 (.707). For these seeking to be contrarian, there are some causes to go different instructions. They are going to be not less than 79% favorites in two of their subsequent 5 video games after this week, so the Bengals maintain loads of future worth.

Nonetheless, these weeks additionally provide a number of different robust choices on paper. The Bengals are the most important favorites by far in Week 17, so burning them now may very well be painful then, nevertheless it’s too early to be involved about 16 weeks from now. The Patriots are a powerful candidate to be the worst group within the NFL, and fading them on the street might be a staple of this column for months.

• ESPN BET line: Bengals -8.5 (-425 moneyline)

• ESPN Analytics: Bengals 82% probability to win (by 13.2)

• Eliminator Problem: 30% chosen this week

2. Buffalo Bills (vs. Arizona Cardinals)
Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, NY
Sunday 1 p.m. ET

The Payments are a powerful second alternative this week because the second-biggest favorites in accordance with the betting odds, Mike Clay and ESPN Analytics. One profit to utilizing the Payments is that they’ve the second-hardest schedule within the NFL, solely behind the Patriots.

Whereas the Payments are a top-five group coming into the season in accordance with ESPN Analytics, there are solely three extra video games after this week the place they’re projected to be not less than 70% favorites. Buffalo has additionally been a powerful Week 1 group underneath Sean McDermott, successful and masking the unfold in every of the final 4 seasons.

• ESPN BET line: Payments -6 (-270 moneyline)

• ESPN Analytics: Payments 77% probability to win (by 9.5)

• Eliminator Problem: 13% chosen this week

3. Seattle Seahawks (vs. Denver Broncos)
Lumen Area, Seattle, WA
Sunday 4:05 p.m. ET

The Seahawks are one other robust pivot off the Bengals chalk this week. That is their second-largest favourite position this season in accordance with Mike Clay and their largest favourite position all season in accordance with ESPN Analytics. First-round quarterbacks since 2021 are 0-9 of their first profession begins, and Seattle is a notoriously tough street venue for Bo Nix to start his profession. The opposite profit with the Seahawks is that they’re at the moment being picked by simply 5% of Eliminator Problem individuals. If that quantity stays low, the Seahawks develop into essentially the most fascinating contrarian decide in Week 1 regardless of being the third-largest betting favorites.

• ESPN BET line: Seahawks -6 (-250 moneyline)

• ESPN Analytics: Seahawks 71% probability to win (by 7.6)

• Eliminator Problem: 5% chosen this week

Others to contemplate