Dodgers' Shohei Ohtani Is Coming for 50/50 Season and MLB's Best Free-Agent Debut

Again in 1988, it will have been exhausting to fathom the Los Angeles Dodgers ever making a greater free-agent signing than Kirk Gibson.

They contracted him for $4.5 million over three years, and all he did out of the gate was have a career-best season, win the Nationwide League MVP and contribute a legendary home run to a World Sequence win.

But right here we’re 36 years later, the place Shohei Ohtani is on one in every of his missions to make all prior benchmarks look quaint by comparability.

When Ohtani signed his 10-year, $700 million cope with the Dodgers in December, he set seemingly impossible-to-reach requirements for himself to dwell as much as. But there may be maybe no higher visible illustration of how effectively he is residing as much as the hype than the road for his bobblehead giveaway at Dodger Stadium on Wednesday:

Unless, of course, one favors a statline that emits the same glow as whatever was in the briefcase in Pulp Fiction.

Ohtani wanted a record-low 126 video games to develop into the sixth member of Main League Baseball’s 40-40 membership. He now has 42 dwelling runs and stolen bases apiece, placing him in a spot the place solely Alex Rodriguez had ever gone earlier than.

All that is nonetheless with a month left within the common season, plus no matter comes after when Ohtani lastly performs within the MLB postseason for the primary time.

It is sufficient to make you surprise: Even for a man who already has two MVPs and a rep as the best two-way participant in historical past, simply how a lot better can it get for Ohtani in 2024?

Ohtani’s Pursuit of 50-50 Feels Like a Achieved Deal

With yet another dwelling run and yet another stolen base, Ohtani can have gone the place no participant ever has earlier than. There has by no means been a 43-43 season. By no means.

However you realize what’s higher than random numbers? Good, spherical numbers. Like, for instance, 50-50.

It is uncommon for a participant to realize even the primary of these marks, as only 31 hitters have ever clubbed 50 dwelling runs in a season. And for individuals who did, Rodriguez and Willie Mays co-hold the high mark for stolen bases with 24.

The notion that Ohtani might greater than double that complete in becoming a member of the 50-homer membership must be absurd, however he is really on tempo to do higher. After rewarding all these bobblehead hounds (plus that other hound) with a homer and two stolen bases on Wednesday, he is on track to complete with 51 homers and 51 steals.

Somewhat than slowing down, Ohtani’s pursuit of 50-50 is dashing up. Break up his 131 video games into an 86-game pattern and a 44-game pattern, and also you get these 162-game projections:

• First 86 G: 51 HR, 32 SB
• Final 45 G: 54 HR, 90 SB

At this charge, it will be stunning if Ohtani does not get to 50-50. It might be about as stunning as him in some way not successful his third MVP, which might make him and Frank Robinson the only two players to win the award in each the American League and Nationwide League.

As a result of he is taking this 12 months off from pitching and he is solely made appearances as a chosen hitter, Ohtani would additionally develop into the primary participant to win an MVP after by no means making any sort of throw in any sort of official capability. It has been all bat and legs and no arm.

You recognize, simply in case anybody was questioning if there have been any new methods to reply “No” to the query of whether or not there’s something Ohtani cannot do.

This Is a Free-Agent Debut for the Ages

In the meantime, the opposite feat Ohtani is engaged on in 2024 entails exhibiting up most of the best free-agent debuts in MLB historical past.

By Baseball Reference’s accounting, Gibson was price 6.5 WAR within the first 12 months of his Dodgers contract in ’88. By FanGraphs’, he was price 6.2 WAR.

Even with no defensive or pitching worth to talk of, Ohtani is already at 6.7 and 6.4, respectively. He is projected to complete with 7.6 fWAR, which might put his 2024 season among the many finest ever for gamers within the first 12 months of a free-agent contract.

Because it stands, the listing seems to be like this:

1. Roger Clemens, 1997: 10.7 WAR
2. Barry Bonds, 1993: 10.5 WAR
3. Randy Johnson, 1999: 9.5 WAR
4. Alex Rodriguez, 2001: 7.8 WAR
5. Greg Maddux, 1993: 7.5 WAR

This can be a listing of residing legends. Main awards finally went to Bonds (MVP) and Clemens, Johnson and Maddux (Cy Younger) for his or her efforts. Rodriguez misplaced out to Ichiro Suzuki in 2001, although that wasn’t for lack of superior numbers. Even right this moment, A-Rod’s 2001 season remains to be one of only four to function 200 hits and 50 homers.

The catch, although, is that none of those 5 seasons comes with an particularly noteworthy October addendum.

Clemens, Bonds and Rodriguez missed out on the playoffs. Johnson and Maddux made it, but it surely’s uncertain both has fond recollections of the expertise. Johnson served up seven runs in his lone begin within the ’99 playoffs, whereas Maddux took the L in a decisive Sport 6 of the ’93 Nationwide League Championship Sequence.

It’s to this finish the place Ohtani can look to Gibson with equal elements envy and willpower in his eyes.

Ohtani’s October Second Is Nigh

As unhealthy as you assume it was throughout Ohtani’s seven years with the Los Angeles Angels, it was in all probability worse. Past by no means making the playoffs, the Angels’ probabilities of successful the AL West between 2018 and 2023 peaked at a mere 38.5 percent in April 2021.

Against this, the Dodgers’ probabilities of successful the NL West this 12 months have by no means gone decrease than 61.6 percent.

Not stunning, on condition that the Dodgers have won more games than every other franchise since 2013. And barring a complete collapse, Ohtani’s religion in them might be validated with an eleventh division title in 12 years, plus a visit straight to the Nationwide League Division Sequence.

Then all he’ll need to do is maintain holding up his finish of the discount.

Ohtani’s entire career is nonetheless a case study that suggests, for him, no stage is too big or set of lights too bright. If anything, he’s like a Jedi in that he solely turns into extra highly effective at any time when an enormous second tries to strike him down.

But to not be missed are his being the best high-leverage hitter in baseball over the past 4 seasons or how he carried the Dodgers via fellow MVP Mookie Betts’ two-month absence. Whereas he was out between June 17 and August 11, Ohtani posted a 1.042 OPS with 16 homers and 17 steals in 45 video games.

In addition to, do not you simply have that feeling? That feeling just like the roads of Ohtani’s profession have all been resulting in this?

As wonderful as he was in his Rookie of the 12 months-winning season in 2018 and in his three-year run as one in every of MLB’s finest hitters and pitchers between 2021 and 2023, the previous was only a tease and the latter felt like one sustained act. Not one of the three actually stands out as the season on reflection.

Even with the tip nonetheless left to be written, it is the season taking place proper now that looks like one thing particular. It’s Ohtani taking one more new strategy to rewriting the principles for what’s doable in baseball. Particularly if his trajectory takes him so far as it might, 2024 might effectively find yourself feeling like his signature season.

At the least, that’s, he finds one other strategy to outdo himself.