Details vs. Emotions: Gamers you'll be able to and may't belief in Week 2

Fantasy football is a ardour for a lot of. Generally that zeal pushes fantasy managers to make emotional choices even when the info counsel in any other case. Every week through the 2024 NFL season, Liz Loza will try and strike a stability between what the info states and what the center desires. That is referred to as Details vs. Emotions.

“Life will not be linear.”

It was a phrase emphatically (if not frustratingly) volleyed at me by an expensive good friend final spring. We had scheduled a post-NFL draft catch-up, exhaling the frenzy of April and inhaling the relative quiet of Could. As typically occurs with former colleagues turned shut buddies, the convo moved from skilled check-in to unadulterated kiki in a matter of minutes.

See, “Rob” (as he’ll be referred to right here) doesn’t waste time. He’ll swiftly determine your “ish” and — with indefatigable precision — name you on it. Rob is my simply “say the factor” good friend. And as soon as it has been stated, that information can now not be faked as a result of he’ll degree you with reality bombs till all the delulu has left the constructing (and your physique). Everybody wants a Rob. (However perhaps not on daily basis.)

On this specific event, I used to be venting about one among my extra difficult private entanglements. I used to be explaining the fragile information of the connection whereas expressing my layered emotions surrounding this individual’s current actions, decrying that if A and B have been correct then C must be a foregone conclusion. Rob didn’t settle for the Liz logic.

As a substitute of spotlighting absolutes, he identified all the unknowns, suggesting that my singular focus had blurred my general imaginative and prescient. He wasn’t mistaken, nevertheless it was a tilting POV shift. After reluctant examination, it turned out the state of affairs held many extra query marks than exclamation factors. After I lamented this discovery, feeling panicked by all the unknowns, Rob (with trademark Gen-X-like edge) requested, “Is not that really a reduction?” The SOB was proper.

Dominoes do not at all times fall in a straight line. Neither does life. There exist a numerous variety of velocity bumps, curveballs and detours, all of which deliver forth an array of alternate pathways and new trails to blaze. Sure, it is exhausting, nevertheless it’s additionally exhilarating. Give me chance over predictability … even in fantasy soccer.

Had been most followers of the digital recreation fist pumping with glee after they snagged the primary choose of their drafts? In all probability. Had been they then cursing the fantasy gods when Christian McCaffrey was dominated out shortly earlier than kickoff on Monday night time? Completely. Did a number of fortunate CMC traders find yourself with a dub due to Jake Moody‘s leg? Perhaps (really, I do know of 1, as a result of he DM’d whereas nonetheless in shock). That is the deal, child! Generally you are up and typically you are down, however you are by no means not transferring.

The occurrences of Week 1 is likely to be an anomaly or they may trace at an rising sample. It is our job to determine factors of emphasis with out letting them overshadow your entire image. It is a course of that may by no means be everlasting. We are going to misjudge, and after we do it is very important keep open and redirect. Benefit from the ups. Bemoan the downs. And do not forget that the place your crew is at present will not be the place it is at tomorrow … for higher or for worse.

To belief or to not belief in Week 2

Caleb Williams, QB, Chicago Bears: Perhaps Williams is not prepared for that gold jacket simply but … as a result of HE SHOULDN’T BE. My lack of overt enthusiasm for Williams in redraft leagues rubbed loads of Chicago followers the mistaken method all through the summer season, however his Week 1 outcomes are precisely why I remained tepid. There is no doubting the 22-year-old’s expertise — particularly as an improvisational artist — however the constructing of a strong professional basis takes time. Here is a pleasant (and annoying) reminder that Patrick Mahomes sat for everything (save Week 17) of his first season.

Williams floundered for a lot of the opener, struggling to maintain up with the clip of the skilled recreation. He was inaccurate typically and danced behind the pocket method an excessive amount of. Relatively than permit himself to be consumed by the enormity of the second (or the ferocity of the Tennessee Titans entrance), nevertheless, Williams started to find a cadence. In reality, 64% of the crew’s yards got here within the fourth quarter. Moreover, Williams led three drives within the recreation’s ultimate 25 minutes — all of which led to Tennessee territory — with two of these advances leading to discipline targets (after managing a single discipline purpose via the primary three quarters).

Progress would not instantly translate into big-time manufacturing. Nonetheless, Williams demonstrated glimmers of future fantasy stardom. His 5 carries for 15 yards reminded managers of his willingness to run. And whereas effectivity was missing, the actual fact 23 of his 29 passes have been fielded by DJ Moore, Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze factors to a sturdy framework. With Odunze doubtlessly restricted (knee) this week, anticipate Cole Kmet to turn into extra concerned and emerge as a security worth for the younger QB.

The lights shall be brilliant on Sunday night time in Houston, and Williams is more likely to make errors whereas making an attempt to maintain tempo with C.J. Stroud & Co. Exterior of superflex leagues, there is no purpose to begin him proper now, however do not quit on his potential but. As a substitute, let him develop on the sector whereas maturing in worth in your bench.

Travis Etienne Jr., RB, Jacksonville Jaguars: Sure, the fumble … but in addition all the pieces else. Etienne’s calling card upon coming into the league was his explosiveness, nevertheless that burst was sorely missing in Week 1. As a substitute, it was Tank Bigsby who ran with urgency, averaging extra yards earlier than (2.58) and after (3.5) first contact. This might, perhaps, be taken with a grain of salt if Bigsby’s workload was considerably smaller. But, each backs recorded 12 carries, with Bigsby proving to be the extra environment friendly rusher, managing 6.1 yards per carry to Etienne’s 3.7.

Etienne was extra concerned within the passing recreation, changing two of three seems for 15 yards, however Bigsby wasn’t wholly absent. The second-year again ran 4 routes (Etienne logged 12), which suggests the 23-year-old could also be a bigger a part of Jacksonville’s offensive plans than initially anticipated. Maybe this should not come as an excessive amount of of a shock, given Doug Pederson’s feedback about wanting to scale back Etienne’s workload in an effort to take care of his lead again’s well being. Whereas Etienne recorded a wholesome 69% snap share (RB14) in Week 1, that quantity is down significantly from the 75% (RB6) he registered in 2023.

Nonetheless, the previous Clemson rusher figures to stay the favourite within the crimson space. He was granted all seven crimson zone snaps and did punch in a 1-yard rating (although that occurred effectively earlier than the aforementioned fumble). These high-value touches determine to maintain Etienne solidly within the RB2 combine, significantly versus a Browns protection that might be gassed whereas attempting to atone for the sins of its offense. Bigsby, however, must be stashed however not thrown into lineups simply but.

Jerome Ford, RB, Cleveland Browns: Cleveland’s offense could have been inept in Week 1, nevertheless it wasn’t Ford’s fault. With Nick Chubb on IR and the backfield to himself, Ford fought in opposition to a disastrous recreation script by staying energetic within the passing recreation. In reality, a 3rd of his whole touches got here through the air, because the 24-year-old ranked third in crew targets (seven) behind Amari Cooper and Jerry Jeudy. Whereas his yardage was not precisely prolific (69 scrimmage yards), his six catches and speeding rating netted him practically 19 fantasy factors (RB11).

Cleveland’s offense could not hum, however Ford’s motor figures to be showcased. Not solely did his 74% snap share rank ninth amongst RBs (not far behind the likes of early-round draft picks Jonathan Taylor, Kyren Williams, Bijan Robinson, Breece Hall, Saquon Barkley and Isiah Pacheco), he additionally ran a route on 66% of the crew’s dropbacks. That degree of quantity offsets even profound inefficiencies. With the Browns doubtless chasing factors versus the Jaguars (they’re 3-point underdogs), anticipate extra dump-offs (and factors per reception) for the crew’s (short-term) lead again. Ford tasks as a top-24 fantasy again heading into Week 2.

Zamir White, RB, Las Vegas Raiders: I won’t have had Alexander Mattison posting extra fantasy factors than White on my Week 1 bingo card … however I additionally didn’t have White on any of my bingo playing cards. Dashing quantity would not a lot matter when the squad is continually taking part in catch-up. The Raiders’ offense seems to be the other of potent. Living proof: Vegas managed a single crimson zone snap on Sunday! That doesn’t bode effectively for a again with restricted pass-catching prowess.

White’s carries (13) practically tripled Mattison’s (5), however the former Viking outproduced the incumbent RB by 16 whole yards and a rating. Moreover, White’s snap share (39%, RB42) paled as compared with Mattison’s hearty 59% (RB21). Recreation script, in fact, affected the utilization of each backs, nevertheless it’s price noting Mattison was deployed on 59% of the crew’s snaps within the first half, when the Raiders have been forward by a degree.

Mattison performed on 13 of 14 third-down snaps, so he’s being trusted to propel the offense ahead. That does not determine to alter when Raider Nation travels cross-country to tackle a rested Ravens protection that allowed the sixth-fewest yards per recreation in 2023. White is shaping as much as be a TD-dependent flex play. Mattison, however, affords fringe RB3 enchantment to managers in deep leagues, however is greatest prevented in the meanwhile.

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Nico Collins, WR, Houston Texans: Stefon Diggs ended up with two TDs and roughly 5 extra fantasy factors, however Collins cemented himself as Houston’s alpha along with his Week 1 play. Main the Texans’ receivers in snaps (80%), Collins transformed six of eight seems for a cool 117 yards (WR6). The 6-foot-4, 214-pound wideout confirmed off his impossibly quick wheels, reaching a high velocity of practically 22 mph (WR1) whereas hauling in a bomb from Stroud for a 57-yard acquire within the second quarter.

Collins can excel on any down and from any distance. That is not essentially true for the remainder of the crew’s WR corps. It is just one recreation’s price of information, however the chasm between Collins’ and Diggs’ receiving stats is jaw-dropping. For instance, Collins managed an aDOT of over 16 yards whereas Diggs posted a paltry 1.3. Equally, Collins registered 129 air yards (WR6) whereas Diggs’ topped out at eight. That does not imply that the Buffalo transplant will not proceed to seek out glory within the crimson space, however Collins figures to ship significant stat traces frequently.

Because the crew’s No. 1, he is additionally first in line to attract high protection from the Bears on Sunday night time. Which means lots of Jaylon Johnson (who was “picked on” simply twice in Week 1). The battle must be fierce. Collins, nevertheless, deserves managers’ belief, inserting him on the WR1/WR2 bubble for fantasy functions.

DeVonta Smith, WR, Philadelphia Eagles: Smith cleared 1,000 receiving yards and recorded precisely seven spikes in back-to-back seasons. He closed out final season as fantasy’s WR19, averaging higher than 14 fantasy factors per recreation. But, he slipped to the sixth spherical of most drafts, falling exterior of the primary 50 gamers chosen. That is trying to be a strong worth, as Philly’s No. 2 WR quietly led the crew in catches and eclipsed 15 PPR fantasy factors in Brazil on Friday.

The Eagles’ offense has confirmed potent sufficient to help two top-20 fantasy producers, as evidenced by A.J. Brown‘s 34% goal share (WR5) and Smith’s 28% (WR18) versus Inexperienced Bay. Smith really outsnapped Brown, as one among simply six ability gamers to handle a 100% snap fee in Week 1. Apparently, 55% of these snaps occurred within the slot (new addition Jahan Dotson lined up exterior 83% of the time). That ought to permit Smith to keep away from a majority of the league’s high corners and proceed to rack up grabs. With A.J. Terrell more likely to deal with Brown, Smith’s Week 2 stat line ought to resemble the one he posted within the opener.

Juwan Johnson, TE, New Orleans Saints: The Saints regarded like world-beaters on Sunday. They have been additionally taking part in the Panthers. Given the matchup, it is tough to find out how grand an impact Klint Kubiak has had on the crew’s offense. None of that, nevertheless, takes away from the glory that was Johnson’s toe-dragging rating on the backside of the second quarter.

Each Johnson and fellow tight finish Foster Moreau discovered the top zone (together with three extra teammates) in Week 1. Moreau outsnapped Johnson by a wholesome margin, however the Oregon standout ran a better variety of routes (12 routes on 23 snaps, versus 10 on 52 for Moreau), suggesting that he is the popular pass-catching choice. Moreau additionally left the competition with a head damage and is questionable heading into Week 2. If Moreau sits, Johnson would doubtless command a bigger goal share.

That might bode effectively Sunday in Dallas. The Cowboys have been spectacular in Cleveland, sacking Deshaun Watson six occasions whereas permitting simply seven yards per reception (fourth fewest). Nevertheless, the protection struggled to include David Njoku, who transformed 4 of 5 seems for a team-leading 44 receiving yards earlier than leaving within the third quarter with an ankle damage. Johnson — who managed 4 scores (TE12) in 2023 — may equally exploit the matchup. With Njoku banged up and Jake Ferguson (knee) questionable, Johnson deserves streaming consideration in fantasy.