Conservatives preventing defensive election marketing campaign, BBC evaluation reveals

The Conservatives are preventing a highly-defensive normal election marketing campaign, with Rishi Sunak visiting areas his social gathering has gained comfortably previously, BBC evaluation reveals.

The prime minister has campaigned in constituencies the place the Tories gained massive within the final election, with notional majorities of greater than 20,000.

In latest days, they’ve included Grantham and Bourne (22,393 or 46% of votes solid) and Torridge and Tavistock (22,899 or 42%).

The Labour and Liberal Democrat leaders have additionally campaigned in areas the place the Conservatives gained in 2019 – once more usually by a large margin.

Leaders go to areas for a variety of causes – however marketing campaign visits are a powerful indication of the place the events imagine they need to be focusing their consideration.

The BBC has collated the actions of the three leaders for the reason that begin of the 12 months.

The info right here focuses on visits in England and Wales which have taken place for the reason that election was known as on 22 Might, up till 22 June. Our knowledge is predicated on visits attended by the media and others reported on-line by numerous sources. It’s not an entire listing as a result of leaders might have chosen to attend occasions privately.

We have now used notional outcomes to know how secure seats are in contrast with 2019. The constituency map has modified since 2019 – so seats aren’t instantly comparable. Notional outcomes are primarily based on calculating what the outcomes would have been with the brand new constituency map in 2019.

We have now offered the figures for every seat as nearly all of the profitable social gathering adopted by the share of the vote this represents.

The clearest sample recognized in our evaluation is that each one three events are specializing in Tory-held areas.

The Conservatives gained the 2019 election comfortably, so it was at all times possible that this may be the case.

However some 90% of Mr Sunak’s visits analysed by the BBC for the reason that election was known as, had been to areas gained by the Tories in 2019 – illustrating a extremely defensive marketing campaign. This continues a sample seen for the reason that begin of the 12 months.

What’s going to concern some Conservatives is what number of traditionally-safe seats Mr Sunak has spent useful time campaigning in.

They embrace the likes of Suffolk Coastal (18,355 or 35% of votes solid), South Northamptonshire (23,671 or 42%), Melksham and Devizes (17,028 or 31%) and Swindon North (13,250 or 28%).

This doesn’t imply the Conservatives concern dropping all of them. However it’s vital they’ve determined to ship the prime minister to those locations within the run-up to polling day.

Not solely does it recommend they really feel the necessity to shore up help, it means Mr Sunak can not spend as a lot time in different extra marginal areas.

On the identical time, 76% of the visits by Sir Keir Starmer for the reason that marketing campaign started, and totalled by the BBC, had been gained by the Conservatives in 2019.

That features a quantity with sizable notional majorities – Studying West and Mid Berkshire, Bassetlaw, Nuneaton, Thurrock and Monmouthshire.

Once more, Labour will not be essentially anticipating to win all of those. However once more it’s vital the chief is spending time campaigning in these areas through the marketing campaign.

If Labour did win these seats, it will recommend a large majority on 4 July.

The Liberal Democrats are additionally concentrating on Conservative-held seats. They’ve been the almost-exclusive focus of Ed Davey for the reason that election was known as. From the 35 visits he has made, 33 – or a large 94% – had been to areas the Tories gained on the final normal election.

Once more, a lot of these areas visited had sizable Conservative majorities in 2019. They embrace Chichester, North Norfolk, Eastleigh and South Devon.

We have now not included Scotland or the SNP chief John Swinney on this knowledge as a result of the Scottish events usually run their very own marketing campaign visits. That makes it tougher to match the info on visits through the marketing campaign.

We have now additionally determined to not embrace Northern Eire as a result of it’s dominated by its personal political events.

Further reporting: Sarah Glatte, Sophie Van Brugen, Callum Might, Nick Eardley.