Caroline Wozniacki's unbelievably inflexible serving sample isn't any secret -- and it really works

NEW YORK — On the US Open on Saturday, Caroline Wozniacki stepped as much as the baseline for her opening service recreation. Then she did what she almost always does.

On the primary level of her match with Jessika Ponchet, Wozniacki served out “huge” to her opponent’s forehand. On the subsequent two factors, she aimed serves down the middle line, or the “T.” On the fourth level, she went huge on the advert courtroom. Vast, T, T, huge.

It is a sample that Wozniacki, remarkably, has been repeating with little or no deviation for a number of years. When her first serve misses its meant mark, it is much less inflexible — she could change the service path then — however on first serve, for the primary 4 factors of every recreation, the sample is usually the identical.

If a recreation goes past 4 factors, Wozniacki adjustments to one thing seemingly extra random. According to analysis from TennisAbstract.com in 2019, she stays true to her plans round 80 % of the time.

In opposition to Nao Hibino in spherical one in New York on Tuesday, Wozniacki made only one change from her routine within the first set, aiming into the physique on the second level at 4-0. Within the second set, she made solely two clear switch-ups. Hibino, who had by no means performed Wozniacki earlier than, was crushed 6-0, 6-1.

Within the second spherical, towards Renata Zarazua, she made simply two clear adjustments within the first set. In opposition to Ponchet in spherical three, she made solely 4 deviations within the first set. Within the opening recreation of the second, she modified it fully, to T-W-W-T however she quickly returned to the plan, with only one exception.

At Wimbledon this yr, it was a lot the identical story. In her first-round win over Alycia Parks, Wozniacki went wide-T-T-wide on the primary 4 factors each time within the first set. In opposition to Leylah Fernandez in spherical two, she modified solely as soon as within the first set. There have been extra adjustments in units two and three, however even then, she caught to the blueprint on the primary 4 factors 28 instances out of 40. In her 15 service video games, her first serve was aimed huge 14 instances.

Perhaps Elena Rybakina received the message in spherical three, when she beat Wozniacki 6-0, 6-1. Outplayed within the first set when she deviated 4 instances, the previous world No. 1 modified issues up much more within the second, nevertheless it did not assist.

In an period when complete knowledge is available, Wozniacki’s patterns are simply discoverable by her opponents and particularly by their coaches. The 34-year-old turned down requests from ESPN to debate her considering, however she would not appear to be anxious that gamers would possibly know the place she’s going to serve. In three matches thus far right here this yr, she has dropped simply 12 video games.

By way of to the fourth spherical for the second yr in a row, Wozniacki performs both Anna Kalinskaya, the No. 15 seed, or the No. 22, Beatriz Haddad Maia, and appears to be saving her finest type for the Grand Slams.

A lot of those that have coached towards Wozniacki know the sample or at the very least a part of it. Mike James, a famend knowledge analyst on the Tour, stated he thinks most main coaches on the WTA Tour should know by now.

“These days you will have so many various methods to seek out the serve patterns,” he stated. “There are various non-public firms which are delivering analytics, plus analysts which are utilizing the WTA/ATP Grand Slam knowledge. Anyone these days needs to be doing their homework round serve patterns.”

It’s to Wozniacki’s credit score, then, that she has been so profitable, even when her intentions are so clear. James, who beforehand labored with Iga Swiatek and who has been serving to Coco Gauff and Victoria Azarenka on the US Open, says that is partly as a result of path isn’t the one factor a returner must deal with.

“Typically gamers are going to what’s snug after they’re uncomfortable, so I can perceive [why Wozniacki does what she does],” he stated. “If it is snug sufficient, the place they’re profitable sufficient, then why change it? It comes all the way down to ball high quality. If the ball high quality and accuracy is there, then maintain doing it.”

Wozniacki returned to the game in 2023 after three years out, throughout which she had two youngsters. She was world No. 1 within the year-end rankings for 2 straight years, in 2010 and 2011, and has gained 30 titles in all, in addition to the Australian Open in 2018. Even then, in an epic three-set remaining with Simona Halep, she largely adopted the sample.

On the face of it, figuring out the place an opponent is more likely to serve needs to be an enormous benefit to the receiver. However maybe it is simply pragmatism on the a part of Wozniacki. The serve has by no means been the strongest a part of her recreation, so if that’s what makes her snug, then truthful sufficient. Together with her excellent motion and an excellent backhand, she backs herself to win the purpose anyway.

Why would a participant not change an apparent sample? “[Because] they’re actually good at it, and so they belief it,” stated Craig O’Shannessy, a method coach and analyst for ATPTour.com. “When issues get tight and nervous, they know they will make that serve.”

O’Shannessy makes use of eight filters to element what gamers do after they step as much as serve, together with what the opponent thinks they are going to do, the place the server needs the ball to come back again, what the rating is or what situations are the match being performed in.

“Generally you would even inform the opponent, I am serving huge, as a result of it is my highest proportion sample or favourite sample,” he stated. “In case you get sufficient of these filters leaning your approach, it helps you and it would not matter what they know.”

And even when a participant does know the place the ball is more likely to go, that is no assure of success. “The very last thing you need is a participant to show round and say, hey, you instructed me he was going to serve there,” he added.

“The best way I’d current it’s to say, ‘That is the place he needs to go.’ I coached one participant right here on Ashe towards Roger Federer. I instructed him, ‘He likes to go huge, search for it huge.’ First level of the match, Fed goes proper down the middle and the man appears at me and stands there [with his arms wide open] for about 5 seconds. The match was over in his head proper there.”