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The Atlanta Braves had been certifiable juggernauts final season, and the expectation is that they’d be simply that after once more in 2024. With roughly seven weeks of normal season left to play, although, the 2024 Braves are very a lot not such a factor.
Coming off a wreck of a weekend sequence in opposition to the lowly Colorado Rockies – one which noticed them blow a six-run eighth-inning lead in the finale – the Braves have now misplaced seven of their final eight. That span additionally features a house sweep by the hands of the Milwaukee Brewers during which the Braves had been outscored 34-12. All of that places them 7 1/2 video games behind the Philadelphia Phillies within the Nationwide League East, which in flip presents them with lengthy odds of successful the division for a seventh straight yr.
Whereas the Braves are narrowly clinging to the third and last NL wild-card spot, they have a gaggle of groups simply off the tempo. Going into Monday’s slate, the Braves lead the New York Mets for that final playoff berth by only a half-game. The St. Louis Cardinals and San Francisco Giants are simply 1 1/2 video games again of Atlanta, and three extra groups are inside 5 video games of them. It is a jumbled fray, and the Braves are narrowly on prime of it solely as a result of the Mets had been swept by the Seattle Mariners whereas the Braves had been busy dropping two of three to the Rockies.
Atlanta’s uninspired play additionally is not a current phenomenon. Popping out of April, the Braves had been a strong 19-9 and looking out like the perfect crew in baseball. For the reason that begin of Could, nevertheless, the Braves are 5 video games under .500, and so they’ve managed just one successful month throughout that stretch (that they had a 14-13 mark for June). Proper now, they’re on tempo for 84 wins, which might be their lowest full-season tally since 2017 and represent a 20-game decline relative to final season.
The main wrongdoer in all of that is after all the lack of their two greatest gamers to damage – reigning NL MVP Ronald Acuña Jr. to a torn left ACL suffered in late Could and Cy Younger hopeful Spencer Strider to a season-ending UCL tear that confirmed up after simply his second begin of the season. You merely can not lose two contributors of that stage and never really feel it fairly acutely within the standings.
That is not all that ails the Braves, however the excellent news for Atlanta is that what’s guiding their current struggles might not persist the remainder of the best way. Let’s take a look at these two elements plus one different that will make the Braves one of many favorites to assert a kind of three NL wild-card slots.
The offense, even with out Acuña Jr., hasn’t lived as much as expectations, however which may be altering
The Braves’ offense, which racked up a gaudy 947 runs final season, has been a largely punchless assault in 2024. Veteran DH Marcell Ozuna is as soon as once more an influence drive on the plate, however he is about the one core hitter who’s carried out as marketed this yr. The excellent news is that there is ample trigger to imagine the Atlanta offense as an entire has been unfortunate. First, they rank a decent seventh within the NL in OPS, however that is out of step with the truth that in addition they rank eleventh within the NL in runs scored.
Second, and most essential, they have been one of many unluckiest groups in MLB on the plate. When you have a look at a sophisticated metric referred to as weighted on-base common, or wOBA (what’s this?), you will discover that the Braves rank thirteenth in MLB – respectable however not essentially commendable. Nonetheless, take a gander at anticipated wOBA, or xwOBA (what’s this?), which estimates deserved outcomes on the plate, you will discover the Braves are tied for eighth among the many 30 groups. In different phrases, the Braves’ hitters as a gaggle have been fairly unfortunate on two ranges – changing manufacturing into runs and changing the standard of their batted balls into manufacturing. These developments might self-correct over the rest of the season.
Particularly, you are seeing hitters like Austin Riley and Sean Murphy begin to discover their extra accustomed ranges on the plate. The lately re-acquired Jorge Soler has additionally been on a heater since becoming a member of the Braves, which provides them some sorely wanted thump within the outfield. As nicely, second baseman Ozzie Albies (fractured wrist) ought to be again for the ultimate week-plus of the common season, a stretch that features a possible pivotal three-game house set in opposition to the Mets.
Accidents have waylaid the rotation, however there’s hope forward
The Braves have given at the very least one begin to 13 totally different pitchers this season, which in giant measure speaks to their well being woes within the rotation. Along with the lack of Strider, Max Fried missed nearly a month with forearm neuritis. He is struggled in two begins since his return, however the expectation is that he’ll quickly discover his accustomed stage. Breakout starter Reynaldo López has been a revelation this yr, however he is been out with a forearm challenge of his personal. The excellent news is that he is begun throwing and will quickly make a minor-league rehab begin. Which means, barring a setback or change of plans, López is inside every week of rejoining the Atlanta rotation.
Trying ahead, it is attainable age-related decline has lastly come for 40-year-old Charlie Morton (4.47 ERA/4.76 FIP), however he hasn’t been a obvious legal responsibility. Chris Sale stays a rejuvenated ace on the entrance finish, and Spencer Schwellenback has properly handed muster on the again. A classic Fried and a wholesome López – it is cheap to anticipate each of these issues coming to move – flip the rotation right into a power. That may very well be the case quickly sufficient.
The bullpen ought to be positive
Sure, the Atlanta aid corps has had a grim go of it currently and endured some premature meltdowns. Total, although, this nonetheless seems like a strong unit. On the season, the Braves’ bullpen ranks third within the majors with a aid ERA of three.38 and second in MLB with a aid FIP, or their “deserved” ERA based mostly on elementary indicators, of three.56. Setup depth from the suitable aspect is probably a priority, however general this stays a strong unit. The character of bullpen efficiency and the small pattern sizes that inform it are such that wild efficiency swings are a part of it. What’s lately the Atlanta bullpen might be that.
The remaining schedule is generally a comfortable one
The remainder of the best way, the Braves will play a slender majority of their remaining video games at house. As nicely, these remaining opponents on common have a document that is slightly below .500, which implies the Braves rank 18th in power of schedule left to play. That is a possible comfortable edge for the Braves, though it ought to be famous that the Mets have an analogous docket left to play in the case of diploma of problem.
Regardless of the current ugly baseball and the plain decline from 2023 ranges, the Braves in line with SportsLine nonetheless have a 52.4% probability of creating the postseason – tops amongst these angling for the ultimate NL wild-card berth. In order that they’ll in all probability make it, and as we have seen repeatedly merely attending to the playoffs means you will have a practical shot of hoisting the trophy. The Braves are hardly on agency footing proper now, however there’s trigger to imagine they will wind up standing on simply that.
