Can Royce Lewis Maintain His Elite Contact High quality?

Royce Lewis is without doubt one of the most intriguing hitters within the sport proper now. Regardless of how implausible he has been on a price foundation, it’s exhausting to totally consider his total worth as a hitter due to how little he has performed. He has amassed 4.1 WAR and a 159 wRC+ throughout 93 profession video games, however as is well-known, he’s been restricted because of a sequence of accidents that features two ACL tears, quadricep and hamstring points, and an indirect pressure.

This season, his explosive efficiency has added some confidence in what he may be as a hitter. Regardless of struggling a quad damage on Opening Day that saved him out of the lineup for 2 months, he’s clobbered 10 dwelling runs in 23 video games, exhibiting that he doesn’t want a bunch of plate appearances to shake the rust off his swing earlier than catching hearth. His uncooked expertise has by no means been in query, however there’s one a part of his sport all through his energy surge that appears to defy logic and is value keeping track of transferring ahead: His xwOBACON sat at .473 coming into play Sunday. If he had been a certified hitter, that might rank within the prime decile. Given what we’ve seen from Lewis, that isn’t all too stunning – he can actually put a cost into the ball. However when zooming in a bit on a selected element of his swing, it turns into a bit shocking. Listed here are the leaders in xwOBACON so far in 2024:

I’ve included Vertical Bat Angle (VBA) right here as a result of, apart from Juan Soto, Lewis has the bottom common VBA of all hitters on this checklist. After Lewis, the hitter with the next-lowest VBA is Giancarlo Stanton, who generates a lot energy and bat pace that it could be practically inconceivable for him to not have a top-of-the-line xwOBACON, even with such an unorthodox swing. How Soto can impression the baseball with ferocity regardless of having one of many flattest swings in all the sport is a little more complicated. The only rationalization is he has unimaginable higher physique athleticism, which permits him to let the ball get extraordinarily deep within the hitting zone and nonetheless modify his bat path to get on airplane with the pitch.

In any other case, although, hitters rarely generate this stage of contact high quality with all these VBAs. So it’s exceptional that Lewis is among the many exceptions. For the remainder of this piece, let’s ignore Stanton as a result of he’s, within the phrases of Yankees supervisor Aaron Boone, a “weirdo” and what he does together with his violent, uneven swing is sort of actually inconceivable to copy. Soto can also be a singular hitter; the distinction is that what he does — utilizing his flatter bat path to make extra constant contact whereas nonetheless having the energy to do injury, and pairing that hit device with 80-grade swing choices — could be value emulating if anybody had been gifted sufficient to do it. At a look, it appears Lewis may need the talents to observe a considerably related recipe. Up to now this season, Lewis has a 98th percentile SEAGER, a metric from Robert Orr that weighs how selective hitter are and the speed at which they assault hittable pitches. It’s particularly encouraging that Lewis lets solely 28.2% of hittable pitches go him by, that means that when he will get a pitch he can crush, he’s assaults it. That’s an important basis to have.

To higher perceive his swing, I’ll refer you all to the third hitting installment from Tess Taruskin’s invaluable video scouting sequence, particularly the half the place she compares grooved and adjustable swings. As a result of Lewis is a hitter with such a flat swing, my preliminary hunch was that the majority of his injury comes towards pitches down the center or in prime half of the zone, leaving a gap for pitchers to focus on on the backside of the zone. This might point out that Lewis would have a grooved swing, one which repeats a selected swing path time and again, resulting in a restricted area for barrels. Though Lewis’ pattern measurement remains to be hardly vital this yr, it’s value the place his greatest swings by way of contact high quality have been situated. Listed here are his 10 dwelling runs this season:

Attention-grabbing. All of Lewis’ homers have come from the center of the zone. That’s not essentially a nasty factor – the very best hitters in baseball are those who crush errors probably the most typically. And as we noticed from his SEAGER, he’s nice at attacking pitches in hittable zones. Principally, we will’t simply knock him just because his homers come from meatballs. Nonetheless, it’s related context to the dialog round distinguishing whether or not his swing is grooved or adjustable. To go a bit additional than simply his pitch chart on dwelling runs, we will take a look at his efficiency by zone to see if he’s had a gap under the zone.

Lewis has truly been fairly profitable within the backside of third of the zone, with a .380 wOBA and .355 xwOBA on pitches on this location. (I included each 2023 and 2024 to extend the pattern measurement a bit.) That’s fairly spectacular for a hitter with such a flat swing. Soto’s wOBA/xwOBA line in that span is .264/.260, although his pattern is way bigger. Lewis’ contact quality on lower-third pitches can also be fairly sturdy.

video, it turns into clear how Lewis is succeeding towards lower-third pitches, and that is the place he’s totally different from Soto. Keep in mind, it’s Soto’s higher physique flexibility that propels him to impression pitches that get deep within the zone towards him. Lewis, then again, makes use of his decrease physique to get down within the zone and do injury on pitches within the backside third:

For those who give attention to the place Lewis’ head begins on these swings versus the place it finishes, you may see the angles he can create together with his decrease physique to get his barrel to the decrease third regardless of his flat swing. It’s paying homage to Fernando Tatis Jr. The palms begin excessive and keep excessive, however the decrease physique creates area for the barrel to nonetheless preserve a optimistic assault angle – the angle of the bat path at contact relative to the bottom – on the backside of the zone. It’s a tough transfer to make, however when your swing is that this adjustable, you may depend on it every so often once you establish pitches appropriately.

The distinction between Lewis and Soto is a good reminder of how totally different hitters may be, even when a key trait of their swings is analogous. Lewis’ superpower lies in his decrease physique. Whether or not the pitch is inside, outdoors, or in the midst of the zone, he makes use of his legs and hips to go down and get pitches.

Now, if I had been an opposing pitcher, I’d problem Lewis to make these strikes over and over and show he can nonetheless elevate pitches down within the zone. Like I’ve stated, we’re coping with a restricted pattern. Nonetheless, primarily based on what we’ve seen up to now, there’s motive to imagine Lewis has the talents wanted to proceed producing elite contact together with his flat swing.