Can Caleb Williams grow to be the Bears' first 4,000-yard passer? Listed here are 3 keys

LAKE FOREST, In poor health. — Moments after celebrating the Chicago Bears drafting him with the No. 1 total decide on April 25, quarterback Caleb Williams was backstage watching a montage of the best moments in franchise historical past.

Narrated by Corridor of Famer Mike Singletary, the previous Bears linebacker listed the greats who had performed for Chicago and the way Williams was anticipated to be subsequent.

However of all of the accolades and accomplishments Singletary listed, there was one thing lacking. The Bears are the one NFL franchise by no means to have a quarterback throw for 4,000 yards or 30 touchdowns in a season.

“You look into it and also you surprise why,” Williams mentioned later that night time. “I requested questions, clearly. I’ve no disgrace in asking questions.

“They advised me and my dad the reality about why and what and the place and the way it will change. That is what we’re enthusiastic about.”

Williams’ quest to erase that blemish begins Sunday towards the Tennessee Titans (1 p.m. ET, Fox).

The workforce’s single-season passing document is held by Erik Kramer, who reached 3,838 yards and 29 TDs in the course of the 1995 season. Jay Cutler, who was the closest the Bears have needed to a franchise quarterback, is the workforce’s all-time passing chief with 23,443 yards, however he by no means threw for greater than 3,812 yards in a season.

Chicago’s rookie document for passing touchdowns is 11 by Charlie O’Rourke in 1942 and a pair of,193 passing yards by Mitch Trubisky in 2017.

ESPN BET has Williams’ season totals at 22.5 passing touchdowns and three,451 passing yards as the previous Heisman Trophy winner from USC is anticipated to interrupt a number of workforce data.

However will he attain 4,000 yards or 30 TDs as a rookie? There have been 5 rookie quarterbacks to throw for 4,000 yards in NFL historical past:

• Andrew Luck, 4,374 in 2012

• Justin Herbert, 4,336 in 2020

• C.J. Stroud, 4,108 in 2023

• Cam Newton, 4,051 in 2,011

• Jameis Winston, 4,042 in 2015

Herbert threw 31 TD passes in 2020, the one rookie to high 30.

“I believe if Caleb Williams can keep wholesome, I do consider he’ll throw for effectively over 4,000 yards, and he will carry one thing to this workforce,” Corridor of Fame quarterback and ESPN “Monday Evening Soccer” analyst Troy Aikman mentioned in the course of the Corridor of Fame Sport on Aug. 1. “… I simply assume he is a particular, particular expertise, and I am actually optimistic on what sort of profession he will have.”

The most important purpose to be skeptical is the franchise’s historical past of being unable to provide a prolific quarterback, however there are causes for optimism. Listed here are three why Williams would possibly finish the Bears’ lengthy historical past of quarterback futility and will attain 4,000 passing yards and 30 touchdowns.

Three No. 1 receivers

Two vast receivers accounted for the majority of Kramer’s passing manufacturing in the course of the 1995 season: Jeff Graham (1,301 yards) and Curtis Conway (1,037).

Williams has extra weapons.

After DJ Moore set profession highs in catches (96), receiving yards (1,364 yards) and touchdowns (8) final season, the Bears fortified their receiving corps by buying and selling for Keenan Allen and drafting Rome Odunze with the No. 9 decide. Allen posted the second-most receiving yards (1,243) of his 11-year profession with the Los Angeles Chargers in 2023, and Odunze led all FBS packages in receiving (1,640) throughout Washington’s run to the nationwide title sport.

Williams would be the first rookie quarterback in historical past to start out a season opener with two receivers who had not less than 90 receptions in the course of the earlier NFL season (Allen had 108). He additionally has a strong tight finish in Cole Kmet, who had a career-high 73 receptions in 2023, plus D’Andre Swift, who was high 5 amongst operating backs in targets (78), receptions (62) and yards (452) throughout a profession 12 months as a cross catcher with the Detroit Lions in 2021.

“I do not know if we’d like a No. 1 receiver,” Williams advised ESPN. “I believe we received a pair No. 1s, and that is what makes it enjoyable for us on the offensive aspect of the ball, as a result of it makes it a hell of rather a lot [more] tough for the protection on the opposite groups for the following 18 weeks. …

“They can not double DJ since you’ve received Keenan and Rome. They can not double Rome since you’ve received Keenan and DJ. I am gonna unfold the ball round, Keenan’s gonna have enjoyable, DJ’s gonna have enjoyable, Cole [Kmet], Gerald [Everett], Rome, the operating backs — Swift and all of them.”

Move-first mentality

Two performs in the course of the Bears’ 27-3 preseason win over the Bengals on Aug. 17 make clear Williams’ mindset.

Nearing the tip of the second quarter, Williams prolonged a play together with his legs earlier than firing a cross to Odunze within the again proper nook of the tip zone that will have been a landing had the receiver saved his ft inbounds. Two performs later, Williams saved his eyes downfield throughout a scramble whereas in search of an open receiver. The play resulted within the quarterback operating in a 7-yard landing, which was his lone TD of the preseason.

Caleb. Williams.

📺: FOX pic.twitter.com/2YcTQ98uB2

— Chicago Bears (@ChicagoBears) August 17, 2024

In related conditions over the previous three seasons, Justin Fields usually selected to run the ball earlier than surveying the downfield choices.

Realizing when to maneuver off his pass-first mentality and run when crucial is one thing Williams has labored on all through coaching camp.

“It is just a little powerful as a result of I prefer to cross the ball, even in scramble mode,” Williams mentioned. “I are inclined to lean much more in direction of throwing the ball, throwing the ball for completion, proper in entrance of me, nevertheless it might work, one thing loopy, or simply throwing it to the tip zone.

“They have been teaching me about attacking the road of scrimmage and issues like that on my scrambles, on the rollouts, the keepers. So, I have been attempting to get just a little bit higher with balancing that and taking what they offer me, whether or not it is a run for yardage or fast cross in entrance of me. It is at all times a continuing battle to do issues like that. You simply proceed to get higher at these conditions.”

Williams is a succesful runner, having rushed for 26 touchdowns in school (2021 at Oklahoma and the following two seasons at USC).

Playcalling

Williams completed his school profession with 120 passing and dashing touchdowns. His 45 completions of 40-plus yards over three school seasons have been essentially the most in FBS.

Bears offensive coordinator Shane Waldron has been tasked with constructing a scheme that performs to Williams’ strengths. Getting his quarterback on the transfer through play-action and designed rollouts have been highlights of Williams’ restricted motion within the preseason when he accomplished 10 of 20 passes for 170 yards with a 79.2 passer score.

Williams reaching 4,000 yards passing will depend upon a heavier passing emphasis than the Bears have beforehand proven. Chicago ranked thirtieth in designed cross proportion below former OC Luke Getsy (2022-23). Throughout that very same stretch, Waldron’s offenses in Seattle ranked seventh. Additionally, Seattle handed the ball on first down on the sixth-highest charge (56%) in 2023, in comparison with the Bears, who ranked twenty fifth on first-down passes (49%).

Putting a steadiness between taking part in inside construction and going off script has been one thing Waldron has emphasised to his QB throughout coaching camp. It was reiterated final week when coach Matt Eberflus mentioned he desires Williams to “play level guard” on early downs by distributing the ball to the talent gamers first, earlier than, as common supervisor Ryan Poles put it, “[letting] these wild performs occur on the proper time.”

Whether or not on the transfer or throwing off-platform, Williams has demonstrated a capability few different Bears quarterbacks have been able to. Harnessing that capacity has been a aim for Waldron.

“He can play in rhythm, discover these throws,” Waldron mentioned. “After which what’s fairly cool to look at is when the play breaks down, it virtually looks as if it is in sluggish movement for him, and he can discover a completely different rush lane, being good with the ball, breaking include and creating some explosives down the sector.”