Can a goaltender win the Calder Trophy as rookie of the 12 months this season?

SEATTLE — Dustin Wolf has confronted a variety of questions during the last seven years:

Is he actually that good? Can a smaller goalie be trusted when each crew needs an even bigger choice in web? Can he replicate his WHL success within the AHL? Can his AHL success be parlayed into giving the Calgary Flames a franchise goalie to win video games and get into the playoffs?

Wolf now faces one other query: Might he or another person on this season’s rookie class grow to be the primary goalie in additional than a decade to win the Calder Trophy?

“I had no thought,” Wolf mentioned of the 15-year hole for the reason that final Calder-winning goalie. “However you already know what? My job is to attempt to cease as many pucks as I can and attempt to assist the crew win video games. If the additional stuff comes together with that, then, it is simply an additional bonus.”

Steve Mason was the final goalie to win the Calder, within the 2008-09 season. Mason went 33-20-7 with a 2.27 goals-against common and a .916 save proportion, taking part in a vital function within the Columbus Blue Jackets making the playoffs. Since then, the Calder has been a forward-centric award, with 11 of the final 15 winners being a middle or a winger.

There have been two goaltenders who’ve completed second in Calder voting since Mason gained the award: St. Louis Blues goalie Jordan Binnington in 2018-19 and Edmonton Oilers goalie Stuart Skinner in 2022-23. However there was a serious gulf in first-place votes for Binnington (18 to Elias Pettersson‘s 151) and Skinner (24 to Matty Beniers‘ 160).

The Calder has been traditionally dominated by forwards. There are 62 forwards who’ve gained the award, which was launched in the course of the 1932-33 season. By comparability, simply 16 goalies have gained. But the present 15-year hole since Mason gained it’s the longest hole. The earlier lengthy goalie-free streak was 12 years, from 1972 to 1984.

Within the time since Mason gained the Calder, the dialog surrounding goaltending continues to evolve.

There are extra knowledge factors and metrics past conventional statistics that can be utilized to guage their performances. Extra entrance workplaces proceed to make use of tandems relatively than the standard strategy of 1 goalie taking part in greater than 60 video games. After having some drafts within the early 2000s that noticed as many as 4 go within the first spherical, there are fewer goalies who’re first-round picks. Even the economics round goalies is in flux, with groups investing wherever between $1.8 million in cap area to $14.5 million.

Now there’s one other speaking level across the sport with regards to goalies: Why hasn’t one gained the Calder in 15 years?

“It is actually exhausting. You do not see too many rookie goalies are available in and simply mild it up straight away,” 2022 Calder Trophy winner and Colorado Avalanche defenseman Cale Makar mentioned. “It’s a must to be arrange in the correct place. Quite a lot of occasions rookie goalies do not play on groups with the most effective protection and that does not help their stats. I feel there’s loads of points that go into it.”

ESPN SPOKE TO an agent with shoppers who’ve gained the Calder and/or have been finalists, together with an skilled Calder voter, an NHL goalie coach and two Calder winners in former NHL goalie Andrew Raycroft and Makar.

They every offered numerous causes for the present hole. Though, there was one frequent theme among the many group: rookie goalies are at a serious drawback with regards to successful the general public consideration battle.

“I feel loads of it too is what you’re going up in opposition to,” one NHL goaltending coach mentioned. “That is solely going to make it more durable for a goalie. Everyone proper now’s anticipating that gamers like Macklin Celebrini, Matvei Michkov, Will Smith — these high-end guys have been hyped going into the NHL and for good motive as a result of they’re nice hockey gamers. You discuss these guys and also you convey Dustin Wolf into the dialog. How a lot better does [Wolf] must be?”

Following hockey prospects is not like following soccer recruiting. Collegiate and junior hockey broadcasts aren’t as simply accessible, and it is much more tough to look at prospects taking part in in Europe. In distinction, Washington Commanders quarterback Jayden Daniels has obtained consideration since getting his first scholarship provide in 2017 as a 16-year-old.

In hockey, the highlight is brighter on non-goaltenders, as evidenced by final season’s Calder race. Chicago Blackhawks middle Connor Bedard gained, with Minnesota Wild defenseman Brock Faber ending second and New Jersey Devils defenseman Luke Hughes third:

• Bedard was lengthy touted because the NHL’s subsequent nice generational expertise. The 2023 draft was generally known as “The Bedard Draft” after he scored 100 factors in his first full WHL season and adopted up with 71 objectives and 143 factors coming into his draft season. He additionally helped Canada to consecutive gold medal finishes on the IIHF World Junior Championships. He was then drafted by an Authentic Six crew, and debuted simply months after being drafted No. 1 in 2023.

• Faber, a second-round choose in 2020, performed for the USA Nationwide Group Growth Program and at collegiate blue blood College of Minnesota, and was a two-time Large 10 Defensive Participant of the Yr earlier than guiding the Gophers to the nationwide title recreation. He additionally gained gold for the USA on the WJC, and was a U.S. Olympian earlier than taking part in for his hometown crew in a state that is thought of to be synonymous with hockey.

• Hughes, the No. 4 choose in 2021, was a standout in a household of standouts as his older brothers, Jack and Quinn, have been additionally first-round picks. The youngest Hughes brother performed for the USNTDP and a collegiate blueblood within the College of Michigan. Hughes was a two-time All-American who averaged greater than some extent per recreation as a sophomore. He helped the Wolverines attain consecutive Frozen Fours, and was within the NHL after two NCAA seasons.

As rookies, they maintained excessive profiles: Bedard was a top-line middle who led the Blackhawks in a number of classes and was tied for first in objectives. Faber performed all 82 video games in a top-pairing function, and was given copious power-play and short-handed minutes. Hughes was a top-four choice who led the Devils in ice time, and was first among the many crew’s defensemen throughout a number of offensive classes.

Goaltenders are sometimes introduced with a distinct path with regards to growth, publicity and the way lengthy it takes to succeed in the NHL.

Between 2000 and 2009, 22 goalies have been chosen within the first spherical, together with Rick DiPietro and Marc-Andre Fleury going No. 1. Since 2010, there have been solely 9 who went within the first spherical, with the very best going eleventh. Not one of the goalies from the 2023 and 2024 draft courses have reached the NHL. There have been solely 12 goaltenders who’ve performed at the very least one NHL recreation since being chosen within the 2020, 2021 and 2022 drafts.

One goalie who had a barely faster path to the NHL, with the next profile, was Devon Levi. A seventh-round choose in 2020, Levi’s inventory soared after his performances led Canada to complete second in 2021 on the WJC. He led Northeastern to a Hockey East regular-season title. Levi signed with the Buffalo Sabres after two school seasons, and went 5-2 within the last stretch of the 2022-23 season.

He was arrange as a Calder contender in the identical season as Bedard, Faber and Hughes — solely to battle all through a 2023-24 marketing campaign that led to him getting demoted to the AHL.

“I feel there’s something to be mentioned that on this world of accelerated every thing that youngsters who do not play within the AHL are given extra consideration for the Calder,” the agent mentioned. “However the guys who’ve been up and down within the minors might need type of gone by means of a few of the rookie challenges in individuals’s minds.”

Raycroft, who gained the Calder again in 2003-04, mentioned it isn’t simply the visibility that No. 1 picks reminiscent of Bedard and Celebrini have obtained through the years that is totally different. These No. 1 picks are getting used in another way in comparison with when he performed.

In Raycroft’s period, No. 1 picks reminiscent of Joe Thornton weren’t instantly trusted with top-line minutes or first-team power-play alternatives. With entrance workplaces now inserting an emphasis on offering probabilities to their youthful gamers, it is permitting these elite prospects the possibility to make a right away affect.

Bedard proved he was a top-line middle. Throughout Beniers’ first full season with the Kraken, he was additionally a top-six middle that was second in objectives, fourth in assists and fourth in factors for a playoff crew. Detroit Red Wings defenseman Moritz Seider, who gained the Calder in 2022, emerged as a top-four choice that led the crew in ice time, assists and power-play factors, and was considered one of three Purple Wings to play all 82 video games.

With younger goalies, it’s kind of extra sophisticated.

“That is the most important distinction before everything. From the goaltending facet of it, they bring about up goalies loads in another way now,” Raycroft mentioned. “Even Wolf performed within the NHL final season — he was in a position to get some video games. Somebody like [Carolina Hurricanes goalie Pyotr] Kochetkov had his rookie of the 12 months alternative eaten up as a result of he performed over elements of two or three seasons.”

THE KOCHETKOV SITUATION may be one of many strongest examples of what makes the present Calder panorama difficult for goalies.

Kochetkov performed twice in the course of the 2021-22 season, with accidents opening the door for him to get extra taking part in time in 2022-23 earlier than he was despatched again to the AHL. In 2023-24, Kochetkov was firmly entrenched as a part of the Hurricanes’ plans. He began 40 video games for a playoff crew, and gained 23 of them whereas having a 2.33 GAA together with a .911 save proportion.

Kochetkov was named to the All-Rookie Group, whereas ending fourth in Calder voting.

“He had a successful report. His save proportion was not within the high three, however he was within the high three in GAA,” the goalie coach mentioned. “However if you have a look at the large image? He had 20-plus wins and I do not know which one [voters] have a look at probably the most.”

The Calder is voted upon by the Skilled Hockey Writers Affiliation. The longtime voter mentioned they use a number of objects to guage skaters reminiscent of level manufacturing, ice time, function, particular groups utilization and photographs as a result of, “it signifies stick on puck and you’re controlling the sport.”

The voter mentioned they’d haven’t any drawback voting for a goalie — with some caveats.

“If a goaltender took a mediocre crew to the playoffs however performed 44 video games, I might have a tough time casting my vote,” the voter defined. “But when he performed 55 or 58 video games, had a low GAA, a excessive save proportion and was within the high 5 within the league in these classes? They did one thing that was actually particular — I might haven’t any drawback casting a vote for them.”

Final season, there have been solely 10 goalies total who performed greater than 55 video games. Two of them have been within the high 5 in GAA amongst these with greater than 25 video games, and just one goalie was within the high 5 in save proportion amongst these with greater than 25 video games.

The one goalie in the whole NHL who checked all of these packing containers was Winnipeg Jets star Connor Hellebuyck, who gained his second Vezina Trophy.

Faber, by comparability, was the one defenseman or ahead of final season’s rookie class to complete within the high 10 of a serious conventional statistical class. He was sixth in common ice time.

By that voter’s logic, does it seem that there is a double normal for rookie goalies? Particularly at a time wherein extra groups are shifting towards tandems — and solely 4 rookie goalies since 2010 have performed in additional than 55 video games all through a single season?

“I do really feel just like the bar must be increased for a goalie,” the voter mentioned. “I additionally suppose that is going to make it more durable for voters now. Goalies do not play as many video games anymore. With the league going to the 1A or 1B technique, you hardly ever see a goaltender recover from 55 video games.”

BACK TO THE authentic query: Might any of this 12 months’s rookie goaltenders finish the Calder drought?

Dustin Wolf was a seventh-round choose who shattered expectations at each degree earlier than reaching the NHL, which makes him one of many higher-profile rookies of this explicit class — and rookie goalies in current historical past.

That allowed him to enter his first full rookie season beneath a highlight. Taking part in a task within the Flames successful 4 straight video games to start out the 2024-25 season additionally helped. Though the Flames have since cooled, they continue to be a crew that would emerge as a long-term challenger within the Western Convention wild-card race.

“He performs an eye-appealing model along with his athleticism, and I feel that would assist him versus being only a large blocker,” the agent mentioned. “He’ll have some highlight-reel saves, and I feel that would assist him too.”

Whereas Wolf entered this season as probably the most well-known rookie goaltender, he is a part of a rookie class that would have multiple netminder in place to current a powerful Calder case at season’s finish.

Accidents and inconsistencies have led to the Avalanche trudging to a 8-8-0 begin, with 5 of their wins coming when Justus Annunen has been in web. Annunen was a third-round choose in 2019, and has offered a way of consistency that has been important with the Avs weathering the primary month with out a handful of their top-nine forwards. The 2022 Stanley Cup champions are anticipated to succeed in the playoffs for what could be an eighth straight season, and Annunen could be a vital a part of that end result.

By the primary month, Joel Blomqvist seems to have offered the Pittsburgh Penguins with a powerful choice in web as additionally they search stability. The Penguins entered November permitting probably the most objectives per recreation within the NHL. By seven begins, the second-round choose from 2020 is averaging 29.5 saves per recreation, posting a .904 save proportion for a crew that is additionally within the high 5 in probably the most scoring probabilities allowed per 60 minutes, most photographs allowed per 60 and most high-danger scoring probabilities allowed per 60, in keeping with Pure Stat Trick. The Pens are one level outdoors of wild-card place within the East.

So may Annunen, Blomqvist or Wolf emerge to grow to be one of many finalists in a Calder race that features Celebrini, Michkov, Smith, Cutter Gauthier, Lane Hutson and Logan Stankoven?

Or does the streak prolong to a not-so-sweet 16 years since a goalie gained the Calder?

“One among these goaltenders who turns into a starter at Christmas and carries the crew down the stretch and wins a division would assist,” Raycroft mentioned. “Not simply being a wild-card crew. That’s prerequisite No. 1 to be within the combine for being the Rookie of the Yr as a goaltender. Numbers will fall into place. I do not suppose you can provide it to a man who shouldn’t be on a playoff crew.”