Biden Administration Claimed Crime Price Is at 50-Yr Low. Is It?

On multiple events all through 2024, U.S. President Joe Biden and members of his administration claimed that the violent crime charge in the USA was at a 50-year low. Biden even included the statistic in his 2024 State of the Union Address in March:

The 12 months earlier than I took workplace, murders went up 30% nationwide the largest enhance in historical past.

That was then.

Now, by means of my American Rescue Plan, which each and every Republican voted towards, I’ve made the most important funding in public security ever.

Final 12 months, the homicide charge noticed the sharpest lower in historical past, and violent crime fell to one of many lowest ranges in additional than 50 years.  

However because the Biden administration continued to promote the statistic, former President Donald Trump pushed again towards it, claiming it was an outright lie, and that U.S. crime charges had been rising, not falling.

Trump’s followers took up his declare and promoted it. When White Home Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre talked about record-low crime charges in a news conference on Aug. 14, many on social media left feedback stating that the statistic was wrong, alleging that the Biden administration was failing to precisely report crime and due to this fact incorrect concerning the true crime charge.

The Downside 

Amassing correct statistics on crime is difficult, as a result of by definition, committing against the law is illegitimate. Perpetrators do not repeatedly admit to their unlawful actions, nor are all crimes reported to legislation enforcement authorities. As such, there are numerous sources that report crime statistics throughout the U.S., every of which has its personal shortcomings.

The Biden administration’s principal supply for crime statistics was the FBI, which has been gathering knowledge on crime for over 100 years by means of its Uniform Crime Reporting (UCR) program. This system data statistics for eight totally different crimes, divided into two classes: Homicide and murder, rape, theft and aggravated assault are categorized as “violent crimes,” whereas arson, housebreaking, larceny and motorcar theft are categorized as “property crimes.” The information on these crimes courting again to 1979 is publicly accessible by means of the FBI’s Crime Data Explorer.

Mentioned knowledge strongly means that Biden’s declare of a 50-year low in violent crime is at the least roughly correct. Nonetheless, there are notable limitations to these statistics that forestall us from drawing a definitive conclusion.

First, the FBI broadened its definition of rape in 2013, making it troublesome to precisely evaluate pre-2013 and post-2013 knowledge in that class. 

Second, the best way the FBI collects its knowledge yields outcomes that undercount the “true” determine of crime. 

To ensure that an incident to be included in FBI knowledge, the crime should be reported to a police division that participates within the UCR program. Since crime shouldn’t be at all times reported to legislation enforcement (in reality, most crime goes unreported), the FBI’s numbers won’t ever be 100% full and correct utilizing that methodology. 

Moreover, legislation enforcement companies aren’t required to report their knowledge to the FBI, which many commenters on social media used as a justification for claiming that if the crime charge “fell,” it should have been as a result of police departments stopped reporting their knowledge. Nonetheless, the FBI additionally publishes the record of legislation enforcement companies taking part within the UCR program. In response to Pew Research, 83% of legislation enforcement companies despatched knowledge to the FBI in 2022.

Regardless, the truth that not all companies report back to the FBI signifies that the company should extrapolate from the info it does obtain in an effort to create its estimates, and any form of extrapolation creates further uncertainty within the numbers. 

Lastly, and most significantly for the declare at hand, the FBI’s definition of “violent crime” is quite limited, consisting of solely homicide and manslaughter, rape, theft (theft with a weapon) and aggravated assault (assault with a weapon).

Various knowledge sources usually add further prices to their definitions of “violent crime,” like simple assault and intimidation. Variations in the best way violent crime is outlined make it more durable to precisely evaluate the FBI’s knowledge with knowledge from different sources. 

What the FBI’s Information Says

For the reason that Biden administration solely used FBI statistics to help its declare, we created visualizations utilizing the identical knowledge (see under). The FBI calculates the crime rate primarily based on the variety of reported crimes for each 100,000 people. (We must always observe that no FBI knowledge was but accessible from earlier than 1979 or after 2022, making it not possible, as of this writing, to exactly assess violent crime charges over a full 50-year interval. Could 2024 reporting on the subject from PolitiFact used a associated dataset compiled by a 3rd celebration containing statistics from way back to 1960, however we opted towards together with that knowledge to keep away from making invalid comparisons.)

The above graph reveals that violent crime has dropped considerably since its peak within the early Nineties. Aggravated assault and murder noticed a bump throughout the first full 12 months of the COVID-19 pandemic (2020), however fell in each 2021 and 2022.

In response to this knowledge, the Biden administration’s declare of a 50-year low is probably going correct.

We calculated that in 2022, there have been 380.7 violent crimes for each 100,000 folks. That charge was marginally decrease in 2013 and 2014 (379.1 and 372, respectively), which means that at finest, we are able to conclude that the crime charge was “close to” a 50-year low. Though it is not essentially correct to check two totally different knowledge units, PolitiFact calculated that the violent crime charge was 401.1 in 1972 and 461.1 in 1974, and it didn’t fall under 400 till 2011.

Moreover, the FBI has periodically introduced preliminary statistics on crime knowledge for 2023 and 2024 by means of news releases. We determined to not embrace these preliminary statistics from 2023 and 2024 in our graphics, since it could introduce much more uncertainty into the numbers. Nonetheless, in response to that preliminary knowledge, violent crime dropped 15% nationwide (though dependable information shops like The Associated Press reported that the steep decline reported by the FBI may need been an overestimate).

If the FBI’s preliminary figures are correct, nonetheless, that lower would probably confirm a 50-year low. 

With a purpose to have a look at the info in additional element, we additionally produced an interactive map exhibiting how the violent crime charge has differed between states since 1979.

Virtually all states comply with the final sample of a peak within the Eighties or Nineties and a gradual lower since, as proven by the lighter colours throughout the nation. Even in states the place crime has been trending upward in recent times, like New Mexico, they nonetheless had greater peaks within the Nineties. The one state the place 2022’s violent crime charge was the very best on report was Vermont, with 221.9 violent crimes per 100,000 folks.

As a comparability, Florida’s violent crime charge didn’t drop under 1,000 between 1985 and 1998. It peaked at 1,244 in 1990, the very best of any state. Washington, D.C., in the meantime, peaked at 2,921 violent crimes per 100,000 folks in 1993. Nonetheless, it is not fully truthful to check the District of Columbia to any of the 50 states. The unique, federal standing of the District creates quite a few challenges for legislation enforcement.

The Nationwide Crime Victimization Survey

The opposite principal crime knowledge supply, the National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS), started within the Nineties and largely corroborates FBI knowledge. A venture of the Bureau of Justice Statistics (BJS), the NCVS makes an attempt to trace each reported and unreported crimes by conducting interviews with a big, nationwide pattern of individuals ages 12 and over. This can be a key distinction between the 2 knowledge sources.

People interviewed for the NCVS are requested whether or not they had been the sufferer of against the law within the final six months, with follow-up questions gathering particulars concerning the crime in query and whether or not or not it was reported to the police. As a result of the NCVS additionally investigates unreported crime, some sources think about it to be extra correct or a greater supply of data for nationwide crime statistics. Nonetheless, it too has limitations.

For the reason that NCVS is a survey, researchers should extrapolate from its knowledge in an effort to create estimates for nationwide and state statistics. Identical to the FBI, this creates a layer of uncertainty across the survey numbers. Second, the BJS doesn’t interview sufficient folks in every state to create correct estimates at a state-wide degree. Lastly, as a result of the BJS is just in a position to ask folks in the event that they had been affected by against the law after that crime has been dedicated, it doesn’t report or acquire any statistics about homicide and murder. Which means FBI and NCVS numbers can’t be instantly in contrast. 

Nonetheless, we’re in a position to evaluate the long run traits in crime between the 2 knowledge units. For the reason that NCVS data extra particular details about every crime that occurred, Snopes tried to think about solely crimes that may be thought of “violent crimes” by each the FBI and the NCVS in an effort to create the next graphic. We used knowledge from 1992, when the NCVS began, to its most up-to-date printed knowledge, 2022:

Despite the fact that the NCVS knowledge solely goes way back to 1992, the final pattern over time since 1992 is roughly the identical: Violent crime has decreased since its peak within the Nineties.

John Lott, the founding father of a right-wing gun-advocacy group known as the Crime Prevention Analysis Middle, has used this knowledge to criticize the Biden administration’s crime statistics in op-eds. Each Lott and Trump have particularly pointed to the newest 12 months’s NCVS as alleged proof that the FBI’s statistics are untrustworthy, and that violent crime was truly rising in 2024.

Nonetheless, the assertion that crime is rising relies solely on the 2022 knowledge level. For the reason that knowledge essential to conclude violent crime had risen throughout the nation since then had not but been launched, these claims, together with these made by Trump, had been unfounded.

It is price noting that the numerous leap in 2022 left even researchers confused. The Marshall Project, a nonprofit information group centered on the prison justice system, wrote that the distinction between the FBI and NCVS for “year-over-year violence traits has by no means been as massive because it was final 12 months.” 

A direct rationalization is kind of easy: The 2022 NCVS discovered that fewer crimes had been reported to the police general. Teachers have proposed several theories as to why folks reported fewer crimes, however researchers are ready on extra knowledge earlier than making an attempt to attract conclusions.

What Does All This Really Imply?

Over a protracted time period, the info reveals that as of 2022, reported violent crime persistently decreased because it peaked within the Nineties. On a shorter time scale, nonetheless, we can not draw a powerful conclusion.

Based mostly on the FBI knowledge, the Biden administration’s declare of a 50-year low in violent crime is probably going right. Nonetheless, the declare comes with limitations, for the reason that FBI solely tracks reported crime.

In the meantime, Trump’s declare that violent crime was rising in 2024 was unfounded, as a result of the info he would want to make such a declare didn’t exist but. Whereas the 2022 NCVS knowledge did present a leap in violent crime, it is irresponsible to attract a big conclusion off of 1 knowledge level. 

When the total 2023 knowledge is launched by the FBI and the BJS (this occurs someday within the fall), these claims could be reanalyzed to take into consideration the brand new data.

Sources