Australia needs to turn out to be a renewable power superpower. Can it?

Hidden amongst thick bushland within the outer suburbs of southern Sydney sits an expansive facility housing a technological breakthrough.

It’s right here that Australian firm SunDrive Photo voltaic makes its “particular sauce”: a brand new – high secret – system that it says has solved “a really excessive worth downside”.

Its large innovation? Discovering a approach to change the silver utilized in photo voltaic cells with copper, which was beforehand thought not possible.

“Silver is dear, scarce and environmentally disastrous, and it limits how a lot photo voltaic might be rolled out world wide,” explains chief business officer Maia Schweizer.

“Copper can be extremely in demand, however it’s 1,000 instances extra plentiful, and 100 instances decrease value.”

The beginning-up is among the beneficiaries of the federal government’s Future Made in Australia plan – a set of insurance policies that goal to show the nation right into a “renewable power superpower” by investing in homegrown inexperienced industries.

However some consultants query whether or not the $A22.7bn ($15bn; £11.8bn) package deal, which contains tax incentives, loans, and kick-starter grants – is sufficient to meet these lofty ambitions.

And local weather scientists say that if Australia needs to be a significant participant within the web zero transition, it must cease peddling fossil fuels.

Australia’s economic system has lengthy been powered by its pure sources, akin to coal, gasoline and iron ore.

However its crucial minerals – a lot of which underpin essential low emissions applied sciences – are exported uncooked, and refined overseas, predominantly by China.

It’s a dig-and-ship mannequin of commerce that has earned Australia a repute because the world’s quarry, and seen it lose out on a big chunk of change additional up the availability chain.

Lithium – which is used within the batteries that retailer renewable power and energy electrical autos – is one instance.

Regardless of being accountable for greater than half of the world’s provide, Australia captures simply 0.5% of the worldwide $57bn lithium battery market, based on the nation’s nationwide science company.

The Future Made in Australia coverage – which was formally introduced in April – seeks to vary that, by providing tax breaks and loans to firms looking for to course of crucial minerals at dwelling.

Doing so, the federal government argues, is a nationwide safety precedence, as nations look at their commerce dependence on Beijing, and look to insulate themselves towards provide chain shocks.

“This isn’t old school protectionism or isolationism – it’s the new competitors,” Prime Minister Anthony Albanese stated, when asserting the plan.

“We have to goal excessive, be daring, and construct large, to match the dimensions of the chance in entrance of us.”

Queensland-based Alpha HPA is among the firms the federal government has tapped to execute its imaginative and prescient.

Like SunDrive, it views itself as a disruptor, attributable to its skill to create ultra-high purity aluminium merchandise – utilized in issues like semiconductors and iPhones – with a decrease carbon footprint than abroad rivals.

Because of a A$400m federal mortgage, it’s constructing one of many world’s largest alumina refineries close to the coastal metropolis of Gladstone, which it says will create a whole lot of native jobs.

It’s an enormous supply of pleasure, given that there’s nonetheless scepticism over whether or not Australia could make issues, after a long time of outsourcing its manufacturing to China, Alpha HPA’s chief working officer Rob Williamson says.

“Anyone that places ahead the case that we do not have individuals on this nation to do [this work] is simply not making an attempt,” he provides.

SunDrive is on an analogous journey.

With out authorities help, Ms Schweizer says, the corporate may need moved offshore.

As a substitute, it is trying to remodel one of many nation’s oldest coal energy stations into an enormous photo voltaic panel manufacturing hub.

At present, one in three Australian households have photo voltaic panels, the very best charge on the planet, and but just one% are made domestically – with China accountable for more than 80% of world manufacturing.

“Each single mineral that you should make a photo voltaic panel, we have one of many high three reserves on the planet,” Ms Schweizer explains.

“Now there’s the opportunity of the end-to-end worth chain coming onshore in Australia for the primary time, which is tremendous, tremendous thrilling.”

The Made in Australia pledge has received the help of the nation’s greatest renewable power business commerce our bodies, who say the investments may very well be “game changing”.

“It’s an enormous alternative for us to be an exporter of local weather options to the world as an alternative of local weather issues,” John Grimes, who heads the Sensible Power Council, says.

However some local weather consultants warn it’s being “severely undermined” by the federal government’s current determination to champion gas until 2050 and beyond regardless of world calls to quickly section out fossil fuels.

“We’re sending a extremely combined message to buyers,” says Polly Hemming, the director of the Australia Institute’s local weather and power programme.

“This authorities has continued to approve new gasoline and coal initiatives – it is flown to Japan, India, Korea, and Vietnam to safe long-term markets for gasoline and coal.

“If we actually needed to be a inexperienced power superpower, we wouldn’t be relentlessly pursuing prospects for our fossil fuels,” she says.

One of many nation’s main local weather scientists agrees.

“There’s a very deep contradiction on the coronary heart of the 2 insurance policies,” says Prof Invoice Hare, chief govt of Local weather Analytics and writer of quite a few UN local weather change studies.

“The Future Made in Australia [plan] is taking part in second fiddle to the federal government’s gasoline technique.”

To grasp how, Ms Hemming says you should “observe the cash”.

In response to an evaluation from her thinktank, final yr alone, state and federal governments spent A$14.5bn subsidising fossil gasoline use throughout Australia, and that sum is barely anticipated to balloon, based on funds estimates.

Against this, she says the A$13.7bn put aside to course of crucial minerals and incubate Australia’s nascent green hydrogen business “isn’t actual cash”.

That’s as a result of it’s going to take the type of tax breaks over the course of a decade, which can only be cashed in on manufacturing ranging from 2027 – a mannequin which policymakers say will guarantee taxpayers’ cash shouldn’t be wasted.

However all of the inexperienced hydrogen initiatives – a lot of that are being led by the nation’s largest mining and power firms – are but to be constructed. And the incentives may very well be scrapped earlier than they get off the bottom if there’s a change in authorities.

“It’s like me having a wholesome consuming and junk meals coverage working on the identical time in my dwelling and telling my youngsters, ‘You’ll be able to have $10 every week now when you maintain consuming junk meals’,” says Ms Hemming.

“Or, ‘I will offer you $2 in 2027 when you change to broccoli’. What do you assume they’re going to prioritise?”

Some power consultants have additionally solid doubt over the enterprise rationale behind inexperienced hydrogen – given the business continues to be in its infancy and riddled with unknowns.

Others fear it may divert funding away from the renewable energy sources which have already confirmed their price, leading to delayed local weather motion.

However Mr Grimes says that inexperienced hydrogen will play a vital function in “stripping emissions” out of Australia’s carbon-intensive mining sector – as firms search for low-cost inexperienced sources of gasoline to proceed powering their operations.

And larger image, he argues that the federal government’s new inexperienced investments ought to be assessed as “a milestone first step” fairly than an finish level.

“The federal government is aware of that if it doesn’t pivot past its exports of coal, gasoline and iron ore quickly, Australia dangers changing into the Kodak economic system of the longer term: an enormous deal someday and utterly irrelevant the following.”

Australia isn’t the one nation trying to place itself because the engine room of the brand new inexperienced economic system.

Dozens of countries are placing ahead bold proposals, such because the European Union’s Inexperienced Deal or America’s gargantuan Inflation Discount Act.

Globally, policymakers have already invested over A$2tn in clear power initiatives since 2020, based on the Worldwide Power Company.

However Australia has some compelling pure benefits, akin to enviable wind and photo voltaic capabilities, shops of crucial minerals and uncommon earths, and a robust mining infrastructure community that may be repurposed.

If used accurately, all of the consultants the BBC spoke with agreed it has each likelihood of securing its place as a crucial inexperienced buying and selling associate amongst allies.

Getting there although, they are saying, would require even higher funding – notably in analysis and growth, which is presently at 30-year lows.

They usually’ve warned that the federal government can’t afford to pull its toes – some extent which Mr Albanese himself has addressed head on.

“We now have to get cracking. We now have limitless potential, however we don’t have limitless time.

“If we don’t seize this second, it’s going to move. If we don’t take this opportunity, we received’t get one other. If we don’t act to form the longer term, the longer term will form us.”