Are NHL Groups Avoiding Drafting From the QMJHL?

Two weeks in the past, The Hockey Information’ Adam Kierszenblat wrote an fascinating story about how the Vancouver Canucks have yet to have drafted a QMJHL player since the 2015 NHL Draft.

From this absurd realization, spun a few weeks of sporadic information gathering has now led to this — a maybe unnecessarily in-depth have a look at which groups are positively biased towards or towards taking QMJHL expertise within the NHL draft.

I felt that this was essential to have a look at for 2 causes.

Firstly, there’s been an rising pattern of Maritime or Quebec born gamers who’ve determined to forego the QMJHL solely, opting to go the NCAA route.

This record consists of the likes of eventual NHL first rounders Alex Newhook (Montreal, Drafted by Colorado), Shane Bowers (Drafted by Ottawa), and extra lately Carolina’s Bradly Nadeau and Chicago‘s Sacha Boisvert.

To not point out, simply this yr, the QMJHL has seen three of its first spherical abilities — two of which who had been taken within the prime 10 — commit to varsity in Victoriaville’s choose Enzo Lottin (seventh total) and Saint John’s choose Tynan Lawrence (tenth total).

Learn extra right here:

Related: REVIEW: The 2024 QMJHL Draft, Two Months Later

Secondly, there’s this notion that has appeared in on-line scouting circles these days that the QMJHL is the lesser of the three CHL leagues.

There’s additionally claims from Jack Han, former participant improvement analyst for the Toronto Maple Leafs, that the bodily improvement of QMJHL and Quebec raised expertise is stunted because of poor teaching.

This unfavourable slant towards the league is current not solely in scouting discourse but additionally proven in public information mannequin’s akin to Patrick Bacon’s — utilized by Twitter analytics man and EPRinkside’s JFresh — equates one point in the QMJHL to .113 NHL points, compared to .141 for the WHL and .144 for the OHL.

This reflection has already appeared to current itself in crew’s draft habits as for the primary time within the league’s historical past, there hasn’t been a QMJHLer taken within the first spherical of the NHL Draft for again to again years.

Moreover, the 2023 NHL Draft noticed solely 12 gamers from the QMJHL get taken, or 5.36 per cent of the draft, which is the bottom proportion of QMJHL expertise taken in an NHL Draft since 1970.

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Related: No QMJHL Players Selected in First Round of 2024 NHL Draft

2024 wasn’t significantly better, with 15 skaters or 6.69% of the draft originating from the ‘Q’, far below the average of 10.14%.

There’s additionally been some worrying tendencies exterior the primary spherical too.

The share of QMJHL expertise drafted usually has dropped a median of .421 gamers per season because the 2005 NHL Draft, when the seven spherical restrict was launched.

In the meantime, of the QMJHL expertise that’s drafted, the proportion of them which are taken within the first three rounds since 2005 has dropped by 24 per cent.

Given this, it felt like like it will be intriguing to take a peak behind the curtains and unravel the information to see which groups are nonetheless prepared to draft out of the QMJHL and which of them aren’t.

You’d instantly suppose Montreal could be the highest crew, however you would be shocked to know that you simply’d be incorrect as Anaheim is the crew with the best affinity for drafting expertise from the Q, with 12 gamers over the past 10 seasons or a median of 1.2 per draft.

The Geese even have the best proportion of its draft pool stemming from the QMJHL with 16 per cent, which was solely elevated with the additions of Chicoutimi’s Maxim Masse (2024, 66th) and Rimouski’s Alexandre Blais (2024, a hundredth) this previous June.

Among the many crop consists of some notable names in Maxime Comtois (2017, fiftieth) and Benoit-Olivier Groulx (2018, 54th).

Though, their greatest picks from the league might quickly develop into Nathan Gaucher (2022, twenty second) Tristan Luneau (2022, 53rd) and Noah Warren (2022, forty second), who appear to be all on observe to turning into common NHLers on the very least.

Second in all metrics is the Tampa Bay Lightning, who boast a median of 1.1 QMJHLers over the past 10 drafts, in addition to an equally spectacular 15.94 % of their draft pool.

The crew has at all times been beneficial to the QMJHL with their most notable picks from the league draft coming from exterior the 10-year interval, from Vincent Lecavalier and Brad Richards to Nikita Kucherov and Ondrej Palat.

That mentioned, they’ve taken some notable names together with Mathieu Joseph (2016, a hundred and twentieth) and lately Drummondville’s Ethan Gauthier (2023, thirty seventh).

One other crew that’s fairly beneficial to the QMJHL occurs to be the one crew the place components of its fanbase will get upset at not choosing somebody from the league — the Montreal Canadiens.

The Habs have taken 9 QMJHLers over the past 10 seasons, together with some promising names too in Joshua Roy (2021, a hundred and fiftieth) and Raphael Harvey-Pinard (2019, 201). That mentioned, the crew has but to have taken a participant from the QMJHL within the first spherical since Nathan Beaulieu in 2011.

Regardless of the excessive variety of QMJHLers per yr, which might have them tied for third most with the St. Louis Blues, San Jose Sharks and the Nashville Predators, the Habs are a lot decrease on a choose by choose foundation with 10.59 per cent of their draft pool over the past 10 seasons coming from the QMJHL.

To not sweat, that is nonetheless above the common (10.14 per cent), however it is just nineth within the league, under the Colorado Avalanche, the Pittsburgh Penguins and all of the groups listed above.

The one different crew with 10% or extra of their draft pool originating from the QMJHL is the New York Islanders precisely hitting the common of 10.14 per cent.

On the opposite facet, there are seven groups the place QMJHLers have consisted of lower than 5 % of the groups draft pool.

On the backside of the record is the aforementioned Vancouver Canucks, who’ve but to have taken a participant from the QMJHL since choosing defensemen Guillaume Brisebois (2015, 66th) and Carl Neill (2015, 144th).

The drought of QMJHL expertise inside the Canucks group may finish with the 2025 NHL Draft as the team has recently hired Patrick Leblond, the previous director of scouting and hockey operations for the Cape Breton Eagles. as a scout.

The second crew that appears to keep away from the QMJHL is the Winnipeg Jets.

The Jets taken a participant from the league since choosing defenseman Leon Gawanke (2017, 136th), and have maintained a median of .2 QMJHL gamers per yr over the ten seasons, making for a measly 3.56 per cent of their draft pool.

Aside from the Jets and the Canucks, each NHL crew has taken a QMJHL participant inside the final 5 drafts.

Three shocking groups with low charges of drafting gamers from the QMJHL embrace the Los Angeles Kings, the Dallas Stars and the Washington Capitals.

The Kings are shocking because the crew boasts NHL defenseman Jordan Spence (2019, ninety fifth) and have lately taken Angus Sales space (2022, 116th), each of whom appear promising sufficient.

In the meantime the Washington Capitals and the Dallas Stars falling so low is shocking provided that they each maintain two of the QMJHL’s most promising exports in Hendrix Lapierre (2020, twenty second) and Mavrik Bourque (2020, thirtieth).

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Related: Five QMJHLers Make EliteProspects’ Top 100 NHL Prospect List

Displaying that despite the fact that these groups do not typically take expertise from the ‘Q’, when the suitable one comes round they’ll.

The opposite groups with a QMJHL draft pool proportion of under 5 % embrace the Florida Panthers and the Minnesota Wild.

All this being mentioned, it is clear that almost all NHL groups have waned on the thought of taking QMJHL expertise over the previous decade or so, particularly so excessive.

Though, that does not imply that no good expertise comes from the league, simply have a look at the Rangers‘ Alexis Lafreniere, the Devils’ Nico Hischier and the Islanders’ Noah Dobson to call a couple of.

Even with the decline in drafted expertise from the league, there’s nonetheless been loads of provides to QMJHL gamers for rookie camps and try-outs. Simply final season noticed the NHL debuts of undrafted gamers Pierrick Dube (Washington) and Samuel Laberge (New Jersey Devils).

Moreover, it’s totally seemingly we could be on the cusp of a resurgeance because the 2025 NHL Draft alone options promising prospects in Moncton’s Caleb Desnoyers, Blainville’s Justin Carbonneau and Chicoutimi’s duo of Alex Huang and Emile Guite, all of whom ought to problem for first spherical alternatives.

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If this can be a systemic concern, as Jack Han had alluded to, then this can be a massive concern which may solely worsen if left unfixed.

Even when it does get mounted, it would take till the fruits of that labour make the NHL —  which may very well be upwards of 5 years after these modifications are applied — earlier than groups clue in and begin to choose from the QMJHL on the price they as soon as did earlier than.

Further Charts

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