AFC South betting preview: C.J. Stroud has Texans in pole place

The Houston Texans pulled off an epic turnaround, going from final (3-13-1 in 2022) to first (10-7) within the AFC South final season and reaching the divisional spherical of the playoffs. Led by 2023 No. 2 total decide C.J. Stroud (+850 to win MVP, behind solely Patrick Mahomes) and buoyed by probably the greatest receiver trios within the NFL following the addition of former Buffalo Bills star Stefon Diggs, Houston enters this season as the favourite to repeat as AFC South champs (+105). The Texans additionally bolstered their backfield by buying and selling for RB Joe Mixon.

The Jacksonville Jaguars have been runners-up to the Texans final season after having received the South in 2022. They misplaced free agent WR Calvin Ridley to the division rival Tennessee Titans, however addressed the necessity at extensive receiver by deciding on LSU’s Brian Thomas Jr. (-115 to report 750.5+ receiving yards) with the No. 23 total decide in April’s draft and likewise signed Gabe Davis.

The Indianapolis Colts‘ fortunes will likely be closely tied to the well being of Anthony Richardson. The quarterback flashed as a rookie final season however appeared in simply 4 video games. He suffered a concussion in Week 2 earlier than a Week 4 shoulder harm ended his season prematurely.

The Colts gave Richardson extra assist by deciding on WR Adonai Mitchell within the second spherical of the draft and likewise beefed up the protection by taking DE Laiatu Latu at No. 15 total.

It is a new period for the Titans, who’ve moved on from franchise legend Derrick Henry. In his place is the tandem of RB Tony Pollard and second-year RB Tyjae Spears. They are going to be tasked with making an attempt to (considerably) exchange Henry’s super manufacturing. Tennessee added Ridley to pair with WR DeAndre Hopkins, however the Titans stay effectively behind the opposite groups within the AFC South by way of odds, coming in at 9-1 to win the division.

Listed here are all the chances for the AFC South groups and our ideas on potential wagers.

Odds as of publication. For essentially the most up-to-date odds, go to ESPN BET.

2024 schedules/strains: Houston, Jacksonville, Indianapolis, Tennessee
2023: Houston (10-7), Jacksonville (9-8), Indianapolis (9-8), Tennessee (6-11)
Overview: NFC East | NFC West | NFC North | NFC South | AFC East | AFC West | AFC North

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Courtesy ESPN Stats & Info

• ESPN Analytics gave the Texans an 11% preseason probability of profitable their division final season, the bottom of the 4 AFC South groups and forward of solely the New England Patriots (6%) and Las Vegas Raiders (4%) within the AFC. The Jaguars had a 55% probability of profitable the division, the second-highest amongst AFC groups, behind the Kansas City Chiefs (57%), however completed 9-8 and missed the playoffs.

• ESPN Analytics does not undertaking an in depth race this season, with Houston’s possibilities to win the AFC South at 53% being effectively forward of the Jaguars (23%) and Colts (21%). The Titans are projected with only a 5% probability to win the division.

• C.J. Stroud, the 2023 NFL chief in passing yards per recreation (273.9) and TD-INT ratio (4.6, 23 passing TDs, 5 INTs). is the primary rookie to steer the NFL in TD-INT ratio (minimal 15 passing TDs in a season), based on Elias.

• Stefon Diggs has recorded 4 consecutive seasons with 100 receptions, tied for the second-longest streak in NFL historical past.

• Trevor Lawrence is one among 4 QBs over the past two seasons to have over 8,000 passing yards and 55 mixed passing and dashing TDs, becoming a member of Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen and Jared Goff.

• Will Levis accomplished solely 54% of his passes thrown past the road of scrimmage final season, the bottom share within the league.

Workers bets

C.J. Stroud to win MVP (+850)

This line has been on the transfer as a result of Stroud is without doubt one of the most guess on gamers on this market at ESPN BET. Stroud is coming off a powerful rookie marketing campaign the place he posted 4,108 passing yards, 23 landing passes and simply 5 interceptions to seize Offensive Rookie of the 12 months honors. He now has an excellent higher offensive line in entrance of him and one other star receiver to focus on after the Texans acquired Stefon Diggs throughout the offseason. If Stroud can take the Texans to the playoffs and put up gaudy numbers as soon as once more, he’s primed to win this award. — Erin Dolan