AFC professional picks 2024: Most overrated and underrated groups, projected order of end, daring predictions

Within the Seventies, then-Houston Oilers coach Bum Phillips famously stated, “The street to the Super Bowl goes by way of Pittsburgh.” Some 45 years later, Phillips’ quote can precisely be utilized to the Kansas City Chiefs, who enter the 2024 season on the precipice of creating NFL historical past. 

Winners of the final two Tremendous Bowls, coach Andy Reid’s group is in pursuit of turning into the NFL’s first group to win three consecutive Tremendous Bowls. The NFL’s dominant group, the Chiefs have had a stranglehold on the AFC for the reason that Patriots‘ two-decade reign ended 5 years in the past. Kansas Metropolis has performed within the final six AFC championships (profitable 4) which included a document 5 straight title video games at residence. 

Will the Chiefs make historical past this season? Like Tom Brady earlier than him, Patrick Mahomes has most of the time made those that have wager in opposition to him and his group remorse their actions. Even when the percentages are stacked in opposition to him, Mahomes has continued to channel a degree of efficiency that rivals the best to ever play his place. The Chiefs’ a number of time MVP-winning quarterback is the No. 1 motive why the Chiefs need to be thought-about the favourite as soon as once more. 

That does not imply that the Chiefs’ quest at immortality shall be a cakewalk, although. Whereas the NFC isn’t any slouch, the AFC is taken into account the deeper of the 2 conferences, largely due to the quarterbacks that play inside it. Pahomes often is the king, however fellow sign callers Aaron Rodgers, Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, Joe Burrow, C.J. Stroud and others are coming for the crown.

How will the AFC play out in 2024? In an effort to reply that query, a number of CBS Sports activities NFL writers supplied their foresight simply forward of Thursday night time’s season-opener between the Chiefs and Ravens. 

Most overrated group 

Pittsburgh Steelers: T.J. Watt is particular: he’s the one participant in NFL historical past to guide the league in sacks thrice. Their protection in 2023 allowed the sixth-fewest factors within the league (19.1), and it may very well be even higher with the addition of linebacker Patrick Queen and a 12 months of improvement from cornerback Joey Porter Jr. Nevertheless, their offense, now coordinated by former Atlanta Falcons head coach Arthur Smith, with both Russell Wilson or Justin Fields operating the present all through 2024, may very well be even worse than anticipating so far as passing the soccer is worried. — Garrett Podell 

New York Jets: It is a group with a 40-year-old quarterback who’s coming off a torn Achilles and has solely often proven curiosity in taking part in soccer during the last three years. All the things is constructed on a home of playing cards, injury-wise, and it is simply actually tough for a protection to keep up elite standing 12 months after 12 months — particularly when it loses go rush juice like New York did this offseason. — Jared Dubin 

Cincinnati Bengals: When all the pieces is buzzing, the Bengals are enjoyable to look at and might go toe-to-toe with the easiest within the NFL. The issue? Issues have been bumpy all through the Joe Burrow tenure. As nice as the previous LSU phenomenon is, he is missed important time in two of his 4 years within the league. The most recent ailment was a season-ending wrist harm to his throwing arm. There’s nonetheless some query as to how that wrist will bounce again this season, and we’ve not even gotten to the present contract dispute that surrounds his go-to wideout Ja’Marr Chase. And this group has the fifth-highest odds to win the Super Bowl? When they’re firing on all cylinders, I completely get that, however I’ve too many inquiries to again that at present — Tyler Sullivan 

Buffalo Bills: Buffalo misplaced a number of starters on the defensive aspect of the ball this offseason, and star linebacker Matt Milano is anticipated to overlook important time because of harm. The Payments additionally moved on from their high two wideouts, changing them with query marks equivalent to Curtis Samuel and rookie Keon Coleman. — Jordan Dajani (John Breech) 

Baltimore Ravens: I feel everyone seems to be fairly appropriately rated however, if I needed to choose one, it might be the Ravens just because they misplaced a number of defensive coaches and gamers. They’re nonetheless one of many high groups within the AFC. — Josh Edwards 

Indianapolis Colts: It is not that everybody’s predicting them to gentle the world on fireplace, however there additionally appears to be an expectation that if Anthony Richardson merely stays on the sphere this time, they will be simply high quality. Which is a priority for a number of causes. First, can he keep on the sphere? Second, can he keep constant? That is nonetheless a group very a lot in flux. — Cody Benjamin 

Los Angeles Chargers: Las Vegas at present has positioned the Chargers’ projected wins whole at 8.5, which actually baffles me. Sure, the Chargers have Justin Herbert and two elite go rushers in Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack. However vastly downplaying these pluses is a unproven receiving corps, an harm inclined operating again room and a head coach (Jim Harbaugh) that has faraway from the NFL for a decade. It additionally would not assist that the Chargers play in the identical division because the two-time defending champion Chiefs. — Bryan DeArdo

Most underrated group 

Pittsburgh Steelers: Wager in opposition to Pittsburgh at your personal danger. This group is significantly higher than the one which gained 10 video games final 12 months, particularly on offense with the arrival of recent offensive coordinator Arthur Smith. Pittsburgh’s success will largely come right down to Russell Wilson and whether or not or not the Steelers’ new-look offense can adequately complement what shold be a top-five protection, led by T.J. Watt, Minkah Fitzpatrick and former Ravens Professional Bowl linebacker Patrick Queen. — Bryan DeArdo

Tennessee Titans: The Tennessee Titans opened up the vault to assist elevate up second-year quarterback Will Levis. Tennessee added Jacksonville Jaguars’ high receiver Calvin Ridley on a four-year, $92 million contract, Dallas Cowboys beginning operating again Tony Pollard to a three-year, $21.75 million contract, Denver Broncos heart Lloyd Cushenberry III to a four-year, $50 milllon deal and Cincinnati Bengals regular slot man Tyler Boyd to a one-year, $2.4 million deal. The Titans additionally drafted Alabama All-American offensive deal with JC Latham seventh general. That improved supporting solid ought to elevate up Levis, whose 10.5 air yards per go try have been essentially the most within the NFL final season. Ought to his NFL-worst 58.4% completion proportion enhance in a giant means, particularly when throwing deep, the Titans may shock lots of people. — Garrett Podell 

Jacksonville Jaguars: Trevor Lawrence’s 2023 dip has softened the glow on what as soon as appeared like a surefire AFC contender. And there is nonetheless honest concern over the offense’s trajectory. However Doug Pederson coaches aggressive groups, and Lawrence nonetheless has a stable setup general. They may storm again to the highest of the AFC South. — Cody Benjamin 

Buffalo Payments: Why precisely am I imagined to consider the Payments are going to fall off after they’ve gained eleven-plus video games yearly since Josh Allen’s breakout? They’re nonetheless both second or third within the AFC pecking order, to me. — Jared Dubin 

New York Jets: Sure, New York just lately turned the betting favourite to win the AFC East, however I do not suppose individuals notice the kind of sleeping large at present residing in East Rutherford. The Jets have the makings of a legit Super Bowl contender and have arguably essentially the most thrilling younger core of gamers within the league. The outdated man within the room, Aaron Rodgers, is seeking to get the prepare again on the tracks after tearing his Achilles simply 4 performs into his Jets tenure. If New York will get even 70% of what Rodgers was earlier than the harm, that is the perfect quarterback play the franchise has seen in a long time. So, once we merely add his presence to a group that sneakily gained seven video games final 12 months with abysmal performances from those that lined up below heart, there could also be no ceiling on what this group can accomplish in 2024. — Tyler Sullivan (Jordan Dajani) 

Los Angeles Chargers: After a 5-12 season in 2023, nobody is anticipating a lot of the Chargers this 12 months, however do not be stunned if Jim Harbaugh wills this group to the playoffs throughout his first 12 months on the job. — John Breech

Cincinnati Bengals: If Joe Burrow can keep wholesome, and that may be a huge if, then Cincinnati has an opportunity to compete with the Chiefs within the AFC if the North would not cannibalize itself. — Josh Edwards 

Daring predictions 

Jared Dubin: 12 months 1 of the post-City Meyer period appeared fairly good. 12 months 2, not a lot. With the Jags transferring on from their coordinator on the fallacious aspect of the ball, I am betting that they stall out this season and are in search of Trevor Lawrence’s third coach come subsequent 12 months.

Garrett Podell: Lamar Jackson and Baltimore Ravens lastly dethrone Chiefs and attain the Tremendous Bowl regardless of defensive exodus this offseason. 

Tyler Sullivan: Browns end final within the AFC North and the Deshaun Watson commerce formally turns into the worst deal in NFL historical past. 

Jordan Dajani: Mike Tomlin registers the primary dropping season of his profession. 

Josh Edwards: Both Jacksonville or Miami will miss out on the playoffs as they compete with the Steelers for the ultimate AFC playoff berth. Three AFC North groups get in to characterize the loaded convention.

John Breech: Payments miss the playoffs. The Payments offense suffered a some huge personnel losses and though I am positive Josh Allen can nonetheless carry them to 9 or 10 wins, I am undecided that shall be ok to make the playoffs. 

Bryan DeArdo: Baltimore misses the playoffs for the second time with Lamar Jackson as its beginning quarterback. 

Cody Benjamin: The Pittsburgh Steelers’ streak of non-losing seasons involves an finish. Perhaps it isn’t loopy contemplating the power of their division, however even with a perceived quarterback improve, Pittsburgh would not essentially really feel offensively steady sufficient to beat a tough schedule and get Mike Tomlin again within the playoff dialog.

AFC champion

Kansas Metropolis Chiefs: The Chiefs are clearly probably the greatest groups within the NFL, and shall be motivated to develop into the primary franchise in NFL historical past to three-peat. — Jordan Dajani (Jared Dubin) 

New York Jets: Defensively, they’ve game-wreckers at basically each degree. On offense, Breece Corridor and Garrett Wilson may rival as the highest gamers at their respective positions by season’s finish. Actually, it will depend on how you’re feeling Aaron Rodgers goes to carry out. I feel he not less than offers New York 70% of his former self, which is the perfect quarterback play the Jets have acquired in a long time. Including that to a seven-win group from 2023, and so they have the makings of an AFC Champion. — Tyler Sullivan 

Cincinnati Bengals: Cincinnati has the quarterback, the offensive expertise, and sufficient expertise on protection to finish the Chiefs’ two-year reign as AFC champs. The Bengals — not like the AFC’s different groups — have already confirmed that they will defeat Kansas Metropolis within the playoffs, doing so in 2021 and almost doing so once more in 2022. — Bryan DeArdo (John Breech, Cody Benjamin)