How Kamala Harris may win (or lose) the Electoral School

Vice President Kamala Harris is the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee. However can she win the presidency?

Because of the wonders of the Electoral College system, the reply will depend on how she is going to do in a restricted variety of swing states.

In 2020, seven states had their presidential winner decided by lower than 3 proportion factors: Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina. Joe Biden received the primary six out of these seven, so he received the White Home.

When President Biden was nonetheless within the race, polling was wanting grim for him in all these states. Commentators speculated that North Carolina, Arizona, Georgia, and even perhaps Nevada had been out of attain for him.

Biden’s finest path to victory, it was believed, was to carry robust within the Rust Belt trio of Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. These three swing states, plus the historically Democratic states and a single electoral vote from Nebraska’s Second Congressional District, would have given Biden 270 electoral votes — the naked minimal he wanted to win.

However Biden’s finest path is probably not Harris’s. There’s an optimist’s case that that’s excellent news for her — and a pessimist’s chance that it’s an actual drawback.

The pessimistic case is that some suspect Harris might do worse amongst Rust Belt working-class whites than “Joe from Scranton” did — making states like Wisconsin and Pennsylvania a more durable attain for her.

The optimistic case is that maybe Harris will do higher than Biden amongst nonwhite voters — placing states with significantly massive Black populations (Georgia and North Carolina) or Hispanic populations (Arizona and Nevada) again into rivalry.

Some preliminary ballot outcomes on how Harris does in swing states have trickled in since Biden dropped out, although given the current upheaval within the contest, it’s not clear how a lot to make of them. However right here’s how the swing state math stacks up.

In 2020, Biden received the nationwide standard vote by 4.5 proportion factors, however the contest for an Electoral School majority was a lot nearer. Biden stacked up 19 secure Democratic states, the District of Columbia, and Nebraska’s Second District.

However he obtained excessive by triumphing narrowly in six of the seven swing states listed above. Right here is his margin of victory in every:

Trump, in the meantime, received simply one of many closest swing states:

Trump additionally received by 3.4 % in Florida, which most analysts now consider ought to be thought-about a red-leaning state reasonably than a swing state.

The Biden-Trump rematch was set to concentrate on the identical lineup of swing states, in about the identical order of competitiveness as final time. Nevertheless, one change is that many polls suggested that Nevada (a state Trump misplaced in 2016 and 2020) has since moved extra to the fitting.

Now, Harris’s choice may scramble the map extra. “Kamala Harris is doing SIGNIFICANTLY higher than Joe Biden is amongst Black and Hispanic voters,” CNN polling analyst Harry Enten wrote on X, including: “whereas Biden had actually one path to win the electoral faculty, Harris has a number of. Particularly, she will win within the Solar Belt (AZ, GA, NC, & NV).”

At present, the proof that may occur is strongest in Georgia, the place 33 percent of the inhabitants is Black and the place there may be polling displaying Harris-Trump is a a lot nearer race than Biden-Trump was. A Landmark Communications ballot showed Harris down 1 point, and an Emerson School ballot showed her down 2 points. (Biden was trailing by about 4 factors on common when he dropped out of the race.)

North Carolina is extra of a attain, contemplating Trump received it twice, nevertheless it was shut in 2020 and the state is 21 percent Black. So maybe Harris may make the state aggressive — although it’s price remembering that she hasn’t led a nationwide ticket but, so we don’t but really know simply how nicely she’ll do amongst Black voters when she’s the nominee reasonably than Biden’s working mate.

For Nevada and Arizona, the query is extra about Hispanic voters, who make up greater than 20 % of the voters in each state. Democrats have received Nevada prior to now 4 presidential cycles, nevertheless it’s drifted proper a bit lately. Arizona, in the meantime, is a historically Republican state that Democrats have had stunning success in prior to now few cycles.

The Rust Belt energy trio of Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania famously decided the outcomes of each the 2016 and 2020 elections, by first swinging towards Trump after which to Biden.

If Harris wins all three once more (in addition to that Nebraska Second District vote), she wins the presidency. However what if she doesn’t win all three?

One other manner to consider that is: If she loses a number of of the Rust Belt trio, what would she must do to make up for that within the different 4 swing states (Georgia, North Carolina, Nevada, and Arizona)?

You may break down the situations in a number of alternative ways, however listed below are a number of:

1) If Harris loses all three of Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania: She has an opportunity of nonetheless successful, however there’s no extra room for error, and it depends on an enormous swing of each Black and Hispanic voters to her facet. She must win all 4 of Georgia, North Carolina, Nevada, and Arizona — that may give her 275 electoral votes. That is simpler stated than carried out — Trump received North Carolina twice and he solely misplaced Georgia and Arizona in 2020 by the slimmest of margins.

2) If Harris wins Michigan, however loses Wisconsin and Pennsylvania: The trio received’t essentially transfer collectively. Biden did barely higher in Michigan than within the different two Rust Belt states in 2020, it has a bigger Black inhabitants, and maybe Harris may win again voters alienated by the Gaza warfare.

If she secures Michigan’s 15 electoral votes, Harris would have two paths. Successful each Georgia and North Carolina could be sufficient to place her excessive. Alternatively, successful a kind of two plus each Nevada and Arizona would do it.

3) If Harris wins Michigan and Pennsylvania, however loses Wisconsin: Including Pennsylvania would put her shut — at 260 electoral votes. She would solely must win one in all Georgia, North Carolina, or Arizona to place her excessive. (Nevada’s electoral vote haul is simply too small to get her there.)

This helps make it clear why Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro has emerged as a number one vice presidential contender — his state’s 19 electoral votes are extraordinarily essential to the electoral math, extra so than, say, Arizona’s 11.

For now, all of that is speculative, since nationwide voters have barely gotten an opportunity to make up their minds what they consider Harris since she grew to become the presumptive nominee. She can have months to marketing campaign in swing states to attempt to make her case — and the Trump marketing campaign can even have months to attempt to make the case towards her.

However the electoral math is already sufficient to indicate that, whereas her probabilities of victory might not completely hinge on the Rust Belt states, her choices are slim if she loses them.