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France's political future hangs in the balance as votes cast in final round of snap election are cast in final round.

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July 7, 2024

“Several senior figures associated with Macron have made various suggestions as to how their voters can support him,” Antonio Barroso, deputy Director of Research for consultancy Teneo stated in a note Wednesday. Former Prime Minister Edouard Philippe has advised voters against voting for either candidates from France Unbowed (LFI). Attal has encouraged everyone to cast ballots against both of these parties.” On July 3rd, Ifop released an opinion poll which suggested voters might prefer centrist, pro-Macron or leftwing candidates over those from RN if given this choice on a ballot paper. However, when confronted with candidates from opposing political ideologies, such as far left or far right candidates, voting patterns become more complicated, suggesting an undecided vote split across candidates from each side of the ideological divide. Teneo’s Barroso cautioned that such poll data only represented attitudes at national level without considering local dynamics within each constituency. Other parties would take 17 to 31 seats, according to Reuters reports. French President Emmanuel Macron (not shown) and Chinese President Xi Jinping attended the sixth Franco-Chinese Business Council Meeting at Marigny Theater, Paris France on May 6, 2024. Mohammed Badra/ Pool | Via ReutersIt remains unclear whether Macron would consider forging an alliance between himself and NFP should parliament remain divided after elections are completed. Prime Minister Gabriel Attal suggested this week that moderates within the National Assembly might cooperate to pass laws one at a time, though little else has been said on this front as parties focus on increasing their vote share. According to Teneo analysis, chances of an unstable legislature stand at 35%; such an outcome “would preclude negotiations for alliance agreements”. “”Such an outcome would be highly unpredictable as no clear path leads to the formation of a government. Prime Minister Gabriel Attal suggested that non-RN parties might form coalition governments under such conditions. However, such a coalition would prove challenging due to differences among parties’ policy preferences. According to Teneo’s projections of electoral probabilities for National Front (RN), they believe there’s 35% chance RN may win an absolute majority and Marine Le Pen would try courting MPs from The Republicans (LR), an established center-right party as well as independent right-wing lawmakers for her support.

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