“This election season is very, very tense… This election marks a first for far right candidates winning at first turn [of balloting], making this historic.” Amel, a psychotherapist who said she will vote for leftwing New Popular Front candidate said. “We are deeply worried and strive to get everyone registered to vote, encouraging those who do not vote to go to polling booths; convincing voters who support extreme right parties that their solutions won’t solve France’s issues”. France’s far-right National Rally party (RN) rejects claims it is extreme, maintaining it stands for French values and culture while representing citizens fed up with President Emmanuel Macron’s political establishment since 2017. But its opponents and critics warn France could face political disaster should one of these anti-immigrant, nationalist or euroskeptic parties win an outright majority vote during Macron’s snap election called after losing heavily against hard right parties during European Parliament elections held June. Premier Minister Gabriel Attal recently stated that French voters now have a “moral duty” to stop RN’s advancement. For young, left-leaning voters such as Amel, this political movement’s rise in voter polls and winning the highest vote share during round one of elections last weekend are alarming developments that cause them to worry for France’s social cohesion. “I am concerned for the future of our nation; things seem to be getting worse every day,” Amel, who would only provide her first name due to its sensitive nature, stated. “This may end in civil conflict.” People will no longer mix freely among each other and become fearful of one another; and this can be extremely terrifying. “France’s snap election has brought into sharp relief its deep political divisions as polls hint of impending final rounds of voting on Sunday. Polling suggests a deeply split country; after round one of voting ended with far-right National Front (RN), New Popular Front (NFP), and Macron supporter coalition Ensemble winning 33% each while Ensemble took 20%.” Left Wing supporters react after results are announced during round 1 French Parliament Elections announced at Nantes Western France June 30, 2024 Since the results of the first ballot, parties on both the center-right and left have taken steps to stop RN from winning a majority in parliament in any subsequent vote. They aim to limit its advance as much as possible in subsequent balloting rounds, trying to prevent its progress by any means necessary. Through joining forces to form what has come to be known as a Republican Front, centrist and leftwing parties have pulled candidates who would otherwise stand against right-wing voters in several constituencies where one of their candidates might better meet that task than an RN candidate would. By offering voters less options overall and leaving only the alternative RN candidates available as options, the anti far-right front hopes that voters will ultimately choose someone other than an RN candidate as the winner of each vote cast by them. As analysts note, whether Macron’s approach will work remains uncertain and it remains to be seen how French voters react when being directed how or who to vote for. Given how contentious French elections have become in recent times – with Macron refusing even to call snap elections that had previously been scheduled – Sunday night’s final result should provide further proof that consensus between national politics and government may prove hard to find going forward, while how French society will react remains unknown. France is no stranger to civil unrest given the growing “Yellow Vest” anti-government movement and subsequent street demonstrations since voting started June 30. France’s Interior Ministry appears ready for trouble after Sunday’s poll and reports indicate they plan on deploying approximately 30,000 officers nationwide on Sunday night due to fears of violence after polls close. Interior Minister Gerald Darmanin announced 5,000 police will be present in Paris and its surroundings to prevent radical right and radical left extremists from exploiting this situation to cause mayhem and havoc. People’s opinions are becoming more divided, which can be felt every day,” according to an anonymous gendarme, due to his job duties, speaking with CNBC.The officer — father-of-three in their 40s who favors right-leaning politics- said French society’s increasing polarization was both troubling and expected due to its diversity. “Stop forcing people with different values and education levels to coexist; it simply doesn’t work!” the officer from Bordeaux in southern France declared. “My concern with our country’s future stems from its overly generous treatment of people unwilling to integrate and contribute to society; such an arrangement simply cannot continue,” warned one police officer; they expected civil unrest following whatever party gained the highest votes at election time. “No matter who wins an election in France, there will always be civil unrest as people express themselves freely,” according to political experts. This volatile atmosphere and antagonism between voters are prime ingredients for civil unrest in France and should not be taken for granted as being signs that something more sinister may arise in future. Philippe Marliere, professor of French and European politics at University College London told CNBC: “All these ingredients combine for an extremely polarized political scene that ultimately spills out into civil society as a whole.” “Having only 33-54% vote for far-right parties demonstrates their presence is rejected on every level — from institutional politics, party affiliation and National Assembly representation, all the way down to society itself.” “You will end up with an increasingly polarized society in which younger people, ethnic minorities and feminists would all feel threatened by an election of far-right parties to government,” Marliere noted. Marliere did not rule out violence on the streets if one were elected: “But we aren’t there yet – that time won’t come so easily”. However, “If policies that are highly unpopular with voters and/or antagonizing to certain groups are implemented then there could be demonstrations on such an extensive scale as to cause unrest on the streets,” according to him. As with other hard-right parties across Europe, National Rally has managed to exploit voter fears about crime, immigration, national identity and economic insecurity to their benefit. Republican Front: Are they Making Progress Toward Voter Gains or Not? An opinion poll conducted by Ifop on July 3 indicated that voters may favor centrist pro-Macron or leftwing candidates rather than an RN candidate on Sunday’s ballot paper. Analysts anticipate a more nuanced picture if voters were asked to choose between far-left and far-right candidates; it reflected a split vote. They predict RN is less likely to achieve an absolute majority (289 seats in 577-seat National Assembly), yet will most likely obtain votes, creating uncertainty for France’s political and economic landscape and Macron. Mathieu Doiret from Ipsos told CNBC Thursday that political landscape has undergone dramatic transformation and can no longer function according to traditional rules, adding “Adapting to this new political reality for every stakeholder can be very challenging”.
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