What Occurred to All These Steals of Third Base?

Athletes like Elly De La Cruz can skew our notion of actuality. His highly effective arm makes most shortstops appear to be they throw with a moist noodle. His 99th-percentile dash velocity makes most different baserunners appear to be they’re working on sand. His tall body, which our web site one way or the other lists at 6-foot-2, makes that man on Hinge who claims he’s 6-foot-2 appear to be he’s truly 5-foot-8. Oh, and his 13 steals of third base this yr may make you assume steals of third are at an all-time excessive, which couldn’t be farther from the reality.

As a fan of extremely particular baseball stats – a daring assertion to make on this web site, I do know – I prefer to examine in on the stolen base charges at every bag. Virtually talking, meaning I pay significantly shut consideration to steals of third, the oft-forgotten center baby of stolen bases. Steals of third are too widespread to obtain the identical quantity of consideration as steals of house; on the similar time, they’re rare sufficient that they’ll all the time be overshadowed by the sheer variety of second-base steals. Steals of house are nearly assured to make tomorrow morning’s spotlight reel. Steals of second outnumber all others and thus dictate league-wide stolen base traits yearly. Steals of third are caught within the center, and that’s very true this season as their siblings are taking much more of the glory than regular.

The stolen base success charge at house (16-for-29, 55.2%) is the best it’s been since a minimum of 1969. Certainly, it’s above 50% for only the second time in that span. As well as, runners are on tempo to steal house 36 instances this yr, which might rank second within the divisional period and properly inside shouting distance of first (38 SBH in 1998). In the meantime, the general stolen base charge (i.e. steals per sport) can be on the rise, primarily pushed by a rise in steals of second. The league is on tempo to steal second base 166 extra instances in 2024 than it did final yr, a 5.6% improve, as runners proceed to check the bounds of the New Guidelines™.

Nonetheless, these extra conspicuous developments are shrouding what is likely to be probably the most attention-grabbing stolen base development of the yr. Steals of third are means down in comparison with final season, whereas the success charge has fallen to pre-rule change ranges:

I first picked up on this peculiarity a few weeks into the season. Ben Clemens wrote about league-wide stolen base traits on April 11, noting that steals per sport had not elevated the way in which many presumed they might. Relatively, baserunners have been swiping luggage rather less steadily than they’d the yr earlier than. I used to be shocked to learn this, so I went digging into the stolen base charges at every bag. That’s how I observed that steals of second base (SB2) weren’t down, a minimum of not by a significant quantity. Stolen bases at third (SB3), however, have been so few and much between that the dearth of SB3 was making a dent within the total numbers.

By video games on April 11, the league was on tempo for 39 fewer steals of second (a 1.31% lower) in 13 extra makes an attempt (a 0.3% improve) in comparison with final yr. At third base, nevertheless, the league was on tempo for 124 fewer steals (a 24.3% lower) in 153 fewer makes an attempt (a 25.4% lower). These have been dramatic numbers, massive sufficient to pique my curiosity even in such a small pattern measurement. Nonetheless, I knew I wanted to attend longer earlier than drawing any conclusions.

Quick ahead a month of baseball – from Spencer Strider’s devastating elbow surgery to Paul Skenes’s thrilling debut – and the general stolen base charge was trying a lot more healthy. By video games on Could 12, the league was on tempo to surpass its stolen base complete from 2023 by greater than 100 steals. Furthermore, that all-encompassing quantity doesn’t do justice to the rise in stolen bases at second. Simply previous the quarter mark of the season, baserunners have been on tempo to steal second 225 extra instances than they’d the yr earlier than. But, as you may need guessed, that meant the numbers at third weren’t significantly better than they’d been a month prior; the league was nonetheless on tempo for a 25% lower in SB3. One factor had modified, nevertheless. Runners have been attempting to steal third a little bit extra usually; they only weren’t succeeding. Between April 11 and Could 12, baserunners tried to steal third 90 instances in 421 video games. That’s not to date off the tempo from 2023 (605 makes an attempt in 2,430 video games). Sadly for these runners, they have been profitable solely 66 instances (73.3% success charge). That’s an incredibly low conversion charge. The final time the SB3 success charge was so low over a full season was in 2002:

Quick ahead once more – previous the discharge of bat tracking data and that epic Yankees-Dodgers series – and it’s getting tougher and tougher to disregard this development. Between Could 12 and in the present day, the SB3 success charge is up barely, however makes an attempt have gone down once more. Thus, the league remains to be on tempo for a 24.1% drop-off in comparison with final season. In the meantime, the SB3 success charge on the yr is just 77.8%. That’s proper round the place the success charge hovered earlier than the rule adjustments; from 2015 to 2022, it by no means rose above 78.8% or fell under 76.7%. However in 2023, it jumped to 84.3%.

To be clear, I’m not shocked the SB3 success charge is regressing. Evidently, the league decided the perfect SB3 success charge was someplace round 77%, and there’s no motive the principles adjustments would considerably have an effect on that. What’s complicated is that the SB3 success charge and try charge are a lot decrease than they have been final season. In idea, the issue with a excessive stolen base success charge is that it suggests runners aren’t stealing sufficient. But, on this case, the success charge is down although runners are trying to steal third far much less steadily:

One doable rationalization? Tragedies of various levels have befallen all three names that stood atop the SB3 podium final season. Esteury Ruiz has been optioned and injured. Ronald Acuña Jr. is out for the season. Corbin Carroll has spent a lot of the yr in a dreadful slump; he’s at the moment on pace for 28 steals, partly attributable to an on-base share that’s down by 50-plus factors, and even when he catches fireplace and his OBP surges, it’s unlikely that he’ll have sufficient base-stealing alternatives to swipe 50 once more. These three mixed for 9.2% of all SB3 final season, and their collective 87% success charge boosted the league common. Their absence from the highest of the leaderboard this yr can’t clarify every part, nevertheless it’s not ludicrous to surprise if it’s a part of the issue. Aside from the De La Cruz of all of it.

Like I teased on the high of this text, the 22-year-old phenom leads the majors with 13 SB3 and 15 SB3 makes an attempt, good for an 86.7% success charge. That places him on tempo to steal third 29 instances this season in 33 makes an attempt. Each of these figures would put final yr’s chief, Ruiz, to disgrace. He solely managed 21 SB3 in 24 bids. Moreover, though De La Cruz is in a category of his personal, he’s not doing all of the heavy lifting. The highest 5 gamers in SB3 makes an attempt this season are on tempo for extra SB3, extra SB3 makes an attempt, and the next success charge than the highest 5 final season. Regardless of the rationalization for the decline in SB3 is likely to be, it has nothing to do with the fellows on the high of the leaderboard:

SB3 numbers on the staff stage level to an analogous conclusion. The highest-two groups this yr – the Reds (duh) and Nationals – are on tempo for extra SB3 than final yr’s high two. Nonetheless, the 28 groups ranked no. 3-30 are all on tempo for fewer SB3 than their counterparts from final season. Think about that the median staff final yr stole third base 15.5 instances, whereas this yr, that median has fallen to 10.9. Equally, the median staff success charge final season was 87%; proper now, it’s 80%. On high of that, 9 totally different groups are on monitor for a minimum of 12 fewer SB3 this season than final. Conversely, just one staff, Washington, is on tempo to extend its SB3 complete by greater than 12. All that is to say that the basis reason for the disappearing SB3 isn’t on the high of the leaderboards, it’s all over the place else.

Contemplating the downturn in SB3 is so widespread, I’m inclined to just accept the best rationalization: Runners are stealing third much less actually because they’ve had fewer alternatives to take action. For one factor, the share of plate appearances taken by left-handed hitters this yr is the best it’s been within the twenty first century. Meaning there have been extra plate appearances the place the catcher has a transparent path to throw down to 3rd. Almost 35% of plate appearances this season have been taken by lefties, up from 33.7% in 2023. That will not appear to be a giant distinction, however over a full season, plate appearances shortly add up. Certainly, in comparison with 2023, the league is at the moment on pace for 549 fewer PA by right-handed hitters in conditions with third base empty and a runner on second. That’s not inconsequential.

That stated, I believe the first rationalization is that defenses have improved in the case of holding runners on second base. Accordingly, they’ve decreased the SB3 success charge and, simply as critically, prevented loads of would-be third-base stealers from taking off within the first place. Good protection means fewer stolen base alternatives. Notably, we noticed an analogous enchancment early final season. Runners have been profitable on 48 of their first 50 SB3 attempts (96%) earlier than pitchers and catchers began to determine cease them. The success charge over the remainder of the season was solely 83.2%. Finally, the speed appeared to plateau; this article from The Athletic on August 9, 2023 exhibits the SB3 success charge just below 85%, and that’s just about the place it could be when the season wrapped up almost eight weeks later. Nonetheless, it was plain to see that defenses made a formidable adjustment to a troublesome state of affairs on the fly.

With an offseason to arrange and a full season of knowledge to work with, it stands to motive that groups may determine higher adapt to the brand new guidelines going ahead. This can be a troublesome speculation to show, however, for what it’s price, we all know that pitcher pickoffs are up by 23.5% this season, and pitchers have gotten considerably higher at holding runners on first base. Sadly, Baseball Savant doesn’t have pitcher working sport stats for second base but. Nonetheless, the Statcast baserunning stats, which take into consideration “runner place on the bottom paths,” recommend that development alternatives per sport are down by about 5% in conditions that begin with a runner on second base. This metric solely considers development alternatives on balls in play, however all the identical, it’s additional proof that defenses have finished a greater job holding runners on second this season.

Thus, what we’re seeing proper now is likely to be the brand new regular. Or, a minimum of so much nearer to regular than what we noticed final yr. Steals per sport at third are nonetheless up by 31.6% in comparison with 2022, and the success charge is correct across the accepted break-even level. Maybe the third base gold rush of 2023 has settled down, however the brand new guidelines – and Elly De La Cruz – are persevering with to do their job to extend exercise on the basepaths between second and third.

All stats by means of June 19.