High of the Order: The Cubs Want a Spark

Welcome again to High of the Order, the place each Tuesday and Friday I’ll be beginning your baseball day with some information, notes, and ideas in regards to the sport we love.

Issues have taken a tough flip for the Chicago Cubs for the reason that finish of April. Over the weekend, they misplaced three of their 4 video games in opposition to the Reds, reducing their document to 32-34 forward of their upcoming a three-game set in opposition to the Rays in Tampa Bay.

The Cubs began robust, with a 17-9 document that ranked third within the Nationwide League, however their 17-0 loss to the Pink Sox on April 27 kicked off a nightmarish 15-25 run. Since then, solely the putrid White Sox have fewer wins than their crosstown rivals throughout that 40-game stretch. So what’s gone improper? And what can the Cubs do to repair it? We’ll get to that second, extra sophisticated query a bit later, however earlier than we do, let’s reply that first one as a result of it’s fairly easy. What’s gone improper? Just about every thing.

Since April 27, the Cubs rank twenty fifth within the majors with an 87 wRC+, down from the sixth-ranked 112 wRC+ they posted throughout their first 26 video games. In the meantime, over their final 40 video games, their pitching employees has a 4.14 ERA, which ranks nineteenth. Their bullpen has been particularly dangerous, with a 4.90 ERA that’s the fourth-worst mark within the majors throughout that span. Even fielding the ball has been a wrestle; regardless of having reigning Gold Glovers Dansby Swanson and Nico Hoerner on the center infield positions, Chicago has been among the many seven worst defensive golf equipment within the majors, with -20 DRS and -10 OAA.

Jed Hoyer’s tenure as president of baseball operations has been outlined by constructing depth and accruing quantity quite than star energy. Regardless of working one of many four franchises valued at $4 billion or extra, Hoyer hasn’t signed a participant to a contract bigger than Swanson’s $177 million, and as issues stand, he has not doled out a deal value $30 million for a single season. (If Cody Bellinger opts out after the season, the Cubs pays him a complete of $30 million, however that technically wouldn’t be $30 million for one yr; quite, Bellinger would earn $25 million in 2024, with a $5 million buyout allotted to 2025.)

Clearly, there aren’t any marquee free brokers to signal proper now, and it stays to be seen if the Cubs will probably be out there for one of the best out there gamers this coming offseason. (As of now, Juan Soto and Corbin Burnes appear to be the one two who’ll command common annual values of $30 million or extra.) However letting excellent contract phrases be the enemy of excellent groups has arguably been what’s prevented the Cubs from making the postseason in each non-COVID yr since 2019. The workforce was at the very least loosely related to Bryce Harper, Shohei Ohtani, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Trea Turner, Xander Bogaerts, and Carlos Correa of their free agent years, all of whom in addition to Bogaerts can be the Cubs’ greatest participant proper now. In fact, there are extra components to signing a free agent in addition to providing probably the most cash — Turner most popular being out east, for instance — however the Cubs’ incapacity, or maybe lack of need, to even get near finalizing offers with elite free brokers could be immediately contributing to what has been a middling workforce for the previous handful of seasons.

This isn’t to say that every one the Cubs’ current signings haven’t labored out. The Swanson deal appeared nice final yr when he hit 22 residence runs, posted a 104 wRC+, and was value 4.4 WAR; we shouldn’t lose sight of that simply because he’s struggled this yr. Equally, Chicago’s choice to signal Shota Imanaga was good. Though he didn’t come to the U.S. with the identical hype as Yamamoto, and due to this fact got here cheaper, Imanaga has been arguably one of the best pitcher from final offseason’s free agent class.

However together with these two astute signings, there are many others for “middle-class” free brokers that haven’t labored out, amongst them are the offers for pitchers Jameson Taillon, Drew Smyly, Michael Fulmer, Brad Boxberger, first baseman/DH Trey Mancini, and catcher Tucker Barnhart. Settling for these worth offers for mid-tier gamers has led to Chicago’s middling performances. The Cubs can afford to spend greater than they’ve underneath Hoyer, and a part of the rationale why they’re floundering now could be as a result of they don’t have sufficient high-end expertise to deal with one of the best groups. To get star-level gamers, it’s good to pay star-level costs. Perhaps these costs are extreme and don’t make sense in accordance with dollars-per-WAR calculations, however they’re typically essential to assemble a successful roster, particularly for the golf equipment which have the monetary flexibility overpay for gamers. As Dodgers president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman as soon as mentioned, being rational doesn’t consummate many offers. That sentiment may also be utilized to trades — the Cubs haven’t swung a big one on the shopping for facet since buying Jose Quintana in the course of the 2017 season.

Andrew Friedman: “Should you’re at all times rational about each free agent, you’ll end third on each free agent.”

— Andy McCullough (@ByMcCullough) December 6, 2016

That hesitation to swing main trades has had a optimistic impact, although, in that it’s given the Cubs an extremely deep farm system. Of their piece on the Cubs’ top prospects, Eric Longenhagen and Tess Taruskin described the group’s minor league system as “one of many best” in MLB, noting that the franchise has extra top 100 prospects (9) than every other workforce.

However, having an awesome farm system doesn’t imply a lot for those who’re not going to make use of your prospects both to beef up your massive league membership or commerce them for impactful gamers on different groups.

The Cubs have already tried the previous, to blended outcomes. Three of their 9 prime 100 prospects are already on the key league roster: first baseman Michael Busch, who has a strong 123 wRC+ at first base; Pete Crow-Armstrong, who has struggled on the plate (60 wRC+) however is already one of many league’s best heart fielders (4 OAA, 6 DRS); and Jordan Wicks, whose peripherals (4.01 xERA and three.23 FIP) point out that he’s been higher than his 4.44 ERA in 5 begins and a aid look would recommend. The issue is that none of them, at the very least proper now, are sufficient to assist the Cubs break by means of.

So the place do the Cubs go from right here? Nicely, they most likely can’t look inside the group to cease the bleeding. Outfielder Owen Caissie, their sixth-ranked prospect and no. 69 general, is tearing it up in Triple-A proper now (130 wRC+ in 238 plate appearances), however he’s the one considered one of their six prime 100 prospects nonetheless within the minors who’s near being prepared for the large leagues. As an alternative, one of the simplest ways to sort things for this season would most likely contain buying and selling away at the very least considered one of their prime 4 prospects: Crow-Armstrong, right-hander Cade Horton (at present out with a lat pressure), infielder Matt Shaw, and outfielder Kevin Alcántara.

If the Cubs don’t suppose they will signal Soto or Burnes, buying and selling for established stars is admittedly their solely path to buying a participant who may drastically enhance the ground and ceiling of a roster that’s extra amount than high quality, with Bellinger, Christopher Morel, and Seiya Suzuki displaying flashes of stardom however not on a constant foundation. The Cubs haven’t had constant All-Star performers on offense for the reason that days of Kris Bryant and Anthony Rizzo; on the pitching facet, they haven’t had a single ace-level starter since Jon Lester, Jake Arrieta and Kyle Hendricks of their peaks — although Imanaga actually seems on his approach. They haven’t had a more in-depth final a whole season within the position since Wade Davis in 2017.

In the end, if the aim is to win — and with Craig Counsell on the helm for $8 million a yr, it actually must be — then buying a real anchor for the roster is paramount. But when the workforce seems too flawed for a single star participant like Luis Robert Jr., or Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to make a distinction, then one of the best plan of action is likely to be to additional increase the farm system by promoting earlier than this yr’s commerce deadline, even when they solely commerce rental relievers like Smyly and Héctor Neris. They may then lastly make this coming offseason the one the place they get aggressive quite than shrewd, going to the market as a substitute of ready for it to come back to them. In the event that they went all in and signed Soto, he’d be one of the best hitter they’ve had in a long time. And regardless of among the questions in regards to the long-term viability of Pete Alonso, he’d actually be the workforce’s largest energy menace since Sammy Sosa. With both or each of these stars on the roster, the Cubs would be capable of let the highest gamers of their farm system develop whereas contributing in supporting roles as a substitute of getting to meet their potential immediately.

Whether or not it comes now, on the deadline, or within the offseason, the Cubs have to do one thing totally different. Going again to the nicely with good-not-great gamers is the way you get good-not-great groups.