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Sean Allen, Particular to ESPN.comNov 19, 2024, 01:00 PM ET
As most groups crack the 20-game threshold this week, we’re attending to a spot the place in-season workforce statistics have a big sufficient pattern to have some that means. Meaning we are able to begin to give some actual consideration to the fantasy factors towards per sport (FPAPG) report, particularly when taking a look at matchups.
For instance, a workforce’s goals-for-per-game or win-loss report does not paint fairly the identical image as FPAPG, which gives a extra direct measure of how a workforce impacts opposing goaltender efficiency for our fantasy leagues.
The Nashville Predators are thirty first within the general standings and in addition occur to be the No. 1 workforce giving out fantasy factors to opposing goaltenders. However the New York Islanders are nineteenth general and rank second; the Edmonton Oilers are fifteenth and rank third; and the Boston Bruins rank 18th in playoff place and seventh in permitting probably the most factors to opposing goaltenders.
Bounce forward: Goalies | Power Play | Droppables
These discrepancies come up from varied elements.
If a workforce tends to get itself shut out, it will probably inflate its FPAPG for opposing goalies. That is the case with the New York Islanders, who tie for the NHL lead by permitting 4 shutouts this season. Or the alternative may be true. The St. Louis Blues have not allowed a shutout towards them this season and, whereas they’ve scored the eighth-fewest objectives towards opposing goaltenders, they rank solely twelfth in FPAPG.
Or a workforce may be good at profitable shut, low-scoring video games. The Bruins have scored the second-fewest objectives towards opposing goalies, however rank solely seventh for FPAPG for goalies. Why? They’ve managed to remain center of the pack for giving out wins (they rank thirteenth for opposing goalie wins).
Groups goaltenders ought to be averted towards:
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Washington Capitals: -1.68 opposing goalie FPAPG
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Winnipeg Jets: -1.06 opposing goalie FPAPG
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Vegas Golden Knights: -0.52 opposing goalie FPAPG
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Florida Panthers: -0.27 opposing goalie FPAPG
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Carolina Hurricanes: -0.08 opposing goalie FPAPG
Groups goaltenders ought to thrive towards
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Nashville Predators: 4.45 opposing goalie FPAPG
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New York Islanders: 3.94 opposing goalie FPAPG
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Edmonton Oilers: 3.66 opposing goalie FPAPG
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Pittsburgh Penguins: 3.35 opposing goalie FPAPG
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San Jose Sharks: 3.25 opposing goalie FPAPG
Sources: Goalie depth chart | Daily lines | Projections | Play for free | Player rater | Most added/dropped | Mock draft lobby | How to watch on ESPN+
Goalie notes
Calgary Flames in 18 video games (three final week):
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Dustin Wolf (crease share season/week: 50.1%/67.6%, fantasy factors season/week: 35.8/20.4, 68.1% obtainable)
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Dan Vladar (crease share season/week: 49.9%/32.4%, fantasy factors season/week: 15.4/-0.2, 96.1% obtainable)
Wolf received his compulsory shutout towards the Predators to spice up his stats this week, and he’s in line to face the Islanders on Tuesday. As soon as extra, examine the groups to focus on within the opening part of this text. Yeah. So do not get too excited if he will get back-to-back shutouts right here. It was actually the absolute best schedule in the intervening time for a goaltender.
Montreal Canadiens in 19 video games (5 final week):
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Sam Montembeault (crease share season/week: 67.1%/81.7%, fantasy factors season/week: 28.4/25.8, 77.2% obtainable)
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Cayden Primeau (crease share season/week: 32.9%/18.4%, fantasy factors season/week: -21.4/-8.2, 99.7% obtainable)
Nearly all of Montembeault’s constructive fantasy factors have come up to now week with him clearly on a heater. That is probably extra of the mercurial showings we anticipate from a workforce and goalie on the rise, however not fairly prepared but. If he will get the beginning when the Habs play Saturday, be very cautious because the Golden Knights (third on the “keep away from” checklist) are the opponent.
Ottawa Senators in 17 video games (three final week):
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Linus Ullmark (crease share season/week: 53.6%/67.5%, fantasy factors season/week: 10.6/6.2, 15.9% obtainable)
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Anton Forsberg (crease share season/week: 43.0%/32.5%, fantasy factors season/week: 15.2/-1.2, 98.3% obtainable)
Two steps ahead and one step again for Ullmark in his quest to be a gradual fantasy possibility. After spectacular wins towards the Maple Leafs and Bruins, he coughed up -6.2 fantasy factors to the … checks notes … Flyers? I believe I need Ullmark on my roster, however I do not know that I’d be prepared to begin him each week simply but. That is in all probability a extensively shared feeling at this stage.
Pittsburgh Penguins in 20 video games (5 final week):
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Alex Nedeljkovic (crease share season/week: 50.0%/71.9%, fantasy factors season/week: 0.6/1.4, 97.6% obtainable)
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Joel Blomqvist (crease share season/week: 34.3%/4.2%, fantasy factors season/week: 9.4/-5.0, 98.5% obtainable)
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Tristan Jarry (crease share season/week: 15.7%/23.9%, fantasy factors season/week: -11.4/-3.4, 78.7% obtainable)
Hey, Jarry’s again! He received lit up by the Blue Jackets. Blomqvist is again within the AHL. Transferring on, nothing to see right here.
San Jose Sharks in 20 video games (5 final week):
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Mackenzie Blackwood (crease share season/week: 55.4%/65.7%, fantasy factors season/week: 21.0/3.8, 94.4% obtainable)
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Vitek Vanecek (crease share season/week: 44.6%/34.3%, fantasy factors season/week: 2.6/0.6, 99.3% obtainable)
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Yaroslav Askarov (no video games but, 94.0% obtainable)
The door is large open for Askarov to stake his NHL declare that he needed a possibility badly sufficient to power a commerce out of Juuse Saros‘ shadow this previous offseason. The Sharks began him within the AHL, the place he is posted a sterling 1.92 goals-against common with two shutouts throughout 9 video games. With Vanecek injured, Askarov has been known as up. The Sharks aren’t precisely a hub for fantasy goaltending from the crease, however they’re scoring sufficient to provide a goaltender a combating likelihood. In case you are hurting within the crease in redraft, scooping him to your bench now could be the play. In case you are in a keeper league, he is in all probability already rostered.
Vancouver Canucks in 17 video games (4 final week):
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Kevin Lankinen (crease share season/week: 75.7%/74.5%, fantasy factors season/week: 31.2/0.4, 34.3% obtainable)
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Arturs Silovs (crease share season/week: 24.3%/25.5%, fantasy factors season/week: -8.6/7.6, 97.3% obtainable)
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Thatcher Demko (no video games but, 16.9% obtainable)
The newest experiences out of Vancouver have Demko’s return on the horizon. Meaning you could examine to see if you’re in one of many 17% of leagues that has him obtainable. It additionally means you could put together to make alternate preparations when you’ve been leaning on Lankinen for fantasy factors.
Stat Tales: Monday’s standout NHL fantasy performances
Try a number of the high performers in fantasy NHL from Monday, together with Sam Montembeault and Alex Ovechkin.
Energy-play notes
Jackson Blake, RW, Carolina Hurricanes (obtainable in 99.5% of ESPN Fantasy leagues): Changing the injured Seth Jarvis on the highest power-play unit, Blake may stick round given the roaring success. The highest unit has 4 objectives in its previous three video games. Opponents are additionally giving them a lifetime on the benefit, with 16:25 throughout these three video games leading to 37 shot makes an attempt to generate these 4 objectives. However the level is that Blake was there for all 4 of them.
Alex Vlasic, D, Chicago Blackhawks (70.6%): With Seth Jones out week-to-week, Vlasic received 1:15 of ice time because the top-unit quarterback on Saturday towards the Canucks. For now, first-round choose Artyom Levshunov has been left within the AHL (the place the just lately turned-19-year-old has 5 factors in 9 video games). Levshunov could be the jackpot if known as up, however do not flip your nostril up on the payout from Vlasic. He is already fantasy related because of his blocked-shot prowess.
Alex Tuch, RW, Buffalo Sabres (13.9%): Filling in on the highest unit for an injured Tage Thompson, the group with Tuch managed 3.88 shot makes an attempt per two minutes and got here away with two objectives in 5:09 whole ice time throughout the previous three video games. Not so quick, although, as now Tuch appears to be like questionable for Wednesday’s tilt. The success with Tuch as a part of the group may spur some modifications when everyone seems to be wholesome once more.
Jonathan Lekkerimaki, RW, Vancouver Canucks (98.3%): With Boeser sidelined for the medium-term, Lekkerimaki has been handed his function on the highest power-play unit and within the Canucks high six. The fantasy outcomes aren’t there but, however the 20-year-old is simply getting his ft moist on the NHL stage. This type of function, with loads of entry to J.T. Miller, Elias Pettersson and Quinn Hughes, ought to be a productive one.
Nicolas Roy, C, Vegas Golden Knights (94.8%): If Mark Stone‘s standing stays questionable, we may get an prolonged window for Roy to be in fantasy lineups. Like Lekkerimaki, he is been elevated to each the highest six and high power-play unit on account of damage.
Nazem Kadri, C, Calgary Flames (23.1%): The Flames energy play is in a funk. A lot in order that the workforce experimented with transferring Kadri off the highest unit towards the Predators final Friday. Each items boosted their shot makes an attempt price within the contest, although neither broke by way of to attain. Twelve of Kadri’s 22 power-play factors final season got here in March and April. Hopefully, he is not making us wait that lengthy once more. He’s flirting with droppable territory in the intervening time.
Marco Kasper, C, Detroit Red Wings (99.6%): Previously three video games, Kasper has averaged solely 0:41 of power-play time, nearly all of which was not with the top-unit gamers. In that point, he is been on the ice for 4 power-play objectives, incomes himself three PP factors. If Patrick Kane does not choose up his tempo on the highest unit, it appears to be like like Kasper is pushing for extra time there.
Jake Walman, D, San Jose Sharks (71.9%): Each Walman and Timothy Liljegren every took a flip with the highest unit up to now two video games and every produced a objective on the benefit. With comparable whole ice time, the shot makes an attempt with Walman because the quarterback (11) had been greater than double when Liljegren was on the ice (5).
Artturi Lehkonen, LW, Colorado Avalanche (28.4%): At the least for now, Lehkonen held onto his top-unit spot by way of the return of each Valeri Nichushkin and Jonathan Drouin.
Ryan Hartman, C, Minnesota Wild (75.9%): To start out, it appears to be like like Hartman is first up for Mats Zuccarello‘s power-play minutes whereas the winger is sidelined for a few month. As nice as this high unit is for the Wild, Hartman does not grow to be an automated add for fantasy. However do not hesitate to leap on him if the ice time with Kirill Kaprizov begins paying off.
Droppables
Yegor Sharangovich, C, Calgary Flames (45.0%): The outcomes aren’t coming and now the ice time is slipping. He even dipped beneath 16 minutes towards Nashville final week. We will come again to him later this season if the Flames’ offense finds a rhythm, however let him go for now.
Jamie Benn, LW, Dallas Stars (59.2%): He earned his fantasy worth in latest seasons from being a key a part of a profitable power-play unit, regardless of his third-line minutes at even power. The benefit simply is not clicking for him this season; in truth, it is clicking with out him, because the unit that includes Matt Duchene, Tyler Seguin and Mason Marchment is doing the heavy lifting.