IMAGE: Namibia Truth Examine / Newzroom Afrika
A Newzroom Afrika report that was considered by many and shared round in Namibian social media areas refers to ‘polls’ that don’t exist
The report broadcast on Youtube on 8 November 2024 by South Africa-based Newzroom Afrika was initially titled ‘Polls recommend Swapo to lose elections‘ and the show-notes accompanying the video learn:
“Within the lead-up to the 27 November common election in Namibia, polls point out that Swapo, which has triumphed in all elections since Namibia’s independence in 1990, may face defeat for the primary time. Nordic Africa Institute analyst and senior advisor Prof. Henning Melber discusses expectations on the upcoming elections.”
In the beginning of the video, the presenter makes the identical declare as that which seems within the show-notes, that “polls point out that Swapo … may face defeat for the primary time”. The video has been watched over 28,000 instances.
Within the Youtube video, analyst Henning Melber factors out that no election-specific opinion polls are performed in Namibia to measure assist for political events or candidates. Melber factors this out on the 6:25 – 6:33 minutes mark within the 13:14 minutes lengthy video.
Melber factors to the Afrobarometer survey as the one survey that asks Namibians about which political events they assist.
Relating to this, the Round 10 results of Afrobarometer have been launched in August 2024, and responses to query 98, which requested respondents to point which social gathering they might vote for within the elections, point out that about 51% of respondents would vote for Swapo. As that is the one public notion survey, or “ballot”, that may be pointed to, it clearly reveals the alternative of what the Newzroom Afrika report claims in its introduction.
Newzroom Afrika response
On 13 November 2024, Namibia Truth Examine contacted the editor of Newzroom Afrika, Lukanyo Calata, by way of WhatsApp and requested what “polls” the Newzroom Africa report of 8 November was referring to.
Calata, responding on the identical day, indicated that: “I’ve had a chat with the Producer and he or she says she scheduled the interview with Prof. Henning Melber based mostly on this piece he wrote.”
The “piece” Calata offered a hyperlink to was an article authored by Henning Melber and published by The Conversation on 4 November 2024, underneath the headline ‘Namibia’s game-changing 2024 elections: Swapo may face defeat for the primary time since independence in 1990’.
Melber doesn’t confer with “polls” within the article or make a prediction that Swapo will lose the upcoming presidential and parliamentary elections of 27 November 2024. He merely discusses the political state of affairs in Namibia within the wake of the November 2019 and November 2020 elections and what the outcomes of these elections probably signify.
Newzroom Afrika’s Lukanyo Calata additionally acknowledged the next within the WhatsApp correspondence: “Through the interview the Prof then alluded to some polls.”
Nevertheless, the one point out Melber makes of “polls” is to say that there aren’t any public opinion “polls” in Namibia that particularly survey individuals on their political selections and preferences forward of elections.
Regardless of not conceding that there have been no “polls” that “recommend Swapo to lose elections”, following Namibia Truth Examine’s strategy Newzroom Afrika modified the title of the Youtube video to: ‘November polls to check Swapo’s electoral fortunes’.
And, the show-notes now learn:
“Within the lead-up to the November 27 common elections in Namibia, the place liberation motion Swapo has been in energy since independence, Nordic Africa Institute’s Prof. Henning Melber unpacks what to anticipate within the upcoming polls.”
Nevertheless, the video nonetheless begins with the presenter stating that “polls point out that Swapo … may face defeat for the primary time”.
No such “polls” exist, so the assertion is fake.
#NamibiaElections2024
That is an output of and for the Elections Truth Checking Coalition of Namibian media and civil society companions combating election-related misinformation.
