President-elect Donald Trump campaigned on the straightforward message that he’ll repair what he sees because the nation’s issues: the border, inflation, housing costs, well being care.
After Trump received the 2024 election, we requested PolitiFact readers to ship us their questions on his marketing campaign guarantees. Most have been about taxes, immigration, abortion, the Inexpensive Care Act, Social Safety and Medicare.
Trump and Republican congressional leaders seem poised to concentrate on immigration and financial guarantees. Republicans could have a Senate majority and, pending a couple of uncalled races, are additionally anticipated to have a slender Home majority.
We tracked and rated 100 promises throughout Trump’s 2024 marketing campaign. Some hinge on conditions not solely inside his management — akin to his promise to finish the Russia-Ukraine struggle inside 24 hours of taking workplace.
Throughout Trump’s first presidency, he broke about half his campaign promises, saved about one quarter and for the remaining achieved a compromise.
We requested the Trump marketing campaign about his 2024 guarantees, together with his time-frame for telling the general public his priorities for the start of his time period. The marketing campaign didn’t reply our questions, however did ship a short assertion.
“The American folks re-elected President Trump by a powerful margin giving him a mandate to implement the guarantees he made on the marketing campaign path,” transition spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt mentioned. “He’ll ship.”
Reader: “Does Trump plan any tax breaks for middle-income Individuals? Any baby credit?”
Trump’s plan to resume his 2017 tax invoice wouldn’t present new tax cuts a lot as forestall a pointy tax escalation that might in any other case have hit if the regulation expired on schedule in 2025. Trump has not pledged to develop the kid tax credit score. In March 2023, he did float a “baby bonus” of money for households with newborns, however didn’t repeat this concept later within the marketing campaign.
Trump promised to finish taxation on ideas, which might have an effect on about 2.5% of workers. Trump additionally mentioned he’d finish taxation of Social Safety, additional time pay and automobile mortgage curiosity. All of those insurance policies would require congressional motion.
Nevertheless, Trump has additionally pledged to enact a ten% to twenty% across-the-board import tariff. If he follows via, the value improve on shopper items “might greater than offset the advantages” of Trump’s different proposed tax adjustments, Garrett Watson, a Tax Basis senior coverage analyst, mentioned.
Reader: “Does Trump have any plans to cut back the price of housing and leases?”
The one promise of Trump’s that addresses housing is his concept to create “freedom cities” on federal land. It’s unclear whether or not these might be constructed shortly sufficient to have any fast, measurable impact on the U.S. housing provide.
However consultants say one Trump promise might make housing much more costly: tighter immigration controls and mass deportations.
Deporting immigrants who’re within the nation illegally and limiting immigrants legally coming into the nation “dangers doing critical injury to the provision facet of housing,” Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, a Columbia Enterprise College actual property and finance professor, mentioned. “Some trades like roofing, masonry, and drywall set up are extremely reliant on immigrant labor. There are persistent labor shortages in plumbing and electrical work that immigrants assist mitigate.”
Reader: “Trump has mentioned he would slap Mexico with a 25% tariff. I dwell in Arizona and a superb share of our produce is from Mexico. How will this have an effect on meals and tequila costs?”
For grocery prices, consultants mentioned the impact on meals costs will hinge on the dimensions of the tariffs Trump decides to impose and whether or not he permits carve-outs for sure sectors. If the tariffs are broad and deep, they might raise food prices.
“Revenue margins for meals are very low,” so, the probability that producers would take up the elevated prices fairly than passing them alongside to customers “wouldn’t be sustainable,” Ross E. Burkhart, a Boise State College political scientist and commerce specialist, mentioned.
U.S. meals producers “can’t shortly elevate their manufacturing of meals to offset the demand for essential merchandise,” Burkhart mentioned. With constant demand however smaller provide, costs would rise.
Tariffs on imported agricultural inputs, from tractors to fertilizer, would contribute individually to greater meals costs, Joseph V. Balagtas, a Purdue College agricultural economist, mentioned.
Lastly, Trump’s proposed mass deportations and stricter immigration limits would hamper farmers, who depend on immigrant staff. Much less labor means extra crop spoilage and better costs, Burkhart mentioned.
As for tequila, its worth “will rise with a tariff, and undoubtedly, so will the price of a margarita,” Burkhart mentioned.
Reader: “Inform me extra about this mass deportation plan. Who can he deport? Through what authorized & logistical mechanisms?”
Trump promised “to hold out the most important home deportation operation in American historical past,” however he hasn’t detailed plans or defined how he pays for it. He mentioned he would start by deporting criminals; that’s not a brand new concept — memos beneath President Joe Biden and former President Barack Obama known as for a similar.
Trump mentioned he’ll enlist the assistance of native regulation enforcement and the Nationwide Guard, however he can count on resistance from Democratic-led states and cities.
In April, he instructed Time magazine that constructing mass deportation camps and utilizing the U.S. navy weren’t out of the query. Tom Homan, whom Trump named “border czar,” instructed Fox News in a Nov. 11 interview that office raids shall be a part of the technique. NBC News, citing unnamed sources, reported that the Trump administration goals to double the present 41,000 immigration detention beds for migrants within the short-term whereas they await deportation. NBC reported that choices additionally embody utilizing non-public prisons that aren’t full.
Immigration consultants have told PolitiFact that mass deportation efforts would doubtless fail due to considerations over price and constitutionality. The American Immigration Council estimated the price of a mass deportation plan at $88 billion a year, for a complete price of $967.9 billion over greater than a decade.
Reader: “How will Trump repeal birthright citizenship?”
Trump failed throughout his first presidency to satisfy his promise to finish folks’s proper to robotically have U.S. citizenship once they’re born within the U.S., no matter their mother and father’ immigration standing. Authorized consultants told us that makes an attempt to finish birthright citizenship would immediate a courtroom battle and will require a constitutional modification.
Reader: “What insurance policies does Trump plan to enact instantly relating to abortion?”
Trump has neither promised nor introduced plans to enact abortion insurance policies. Since April, he has mentioned he believes abortion laws ought to be “left to the states” and told reporters he wouldn’t signal a nationwide ban.
In August, Trump instructed CBS News he wouldn’t use the Comstock Act — a nineteenth century regulation that bans mailing “obscene” supplies — to ban mailing abortion drugs.
Throughout his first presidency, Trump endorsed a 20-week nationwide abortion ban that Home Republicans backed. Earlier than he adopted his leave-it-to-the-states strategy in 2024’s marketing campaign, Trump floated assist for 15- or 16-week federal abortion bans.
Trump’s first administration blocked organizations that present abortion companies from receiving sure federal funds. Biden overturned the directive, however the incoming Trump administration might revert to the coverage.
Reader: “May Trump repeal the Inexpensive Care Act?”
Trump broke his 2016 campaign promise to repeal the Inexpensive Care Act. Prior to now yr, he has mentioned he is not going to strive once more to repeal it, however he and Congress might change it considerably
To offset tax cuts he’s anticipated to make, Trump would doubtless have to think about slicing Medicaid and the Inexpensive Care Act market, mentioned Cynthia Cox, an ACA knowledgeable at KFF, a well being coverage analysis group.
Trump’s administration will face a call subsequent yr on whether or not to again an extension of enhanced premium subsidies for the well being regulation’s insurance policy. With out the improved subsidies, steep premium increases are projected. And with out the improved subsidies, the present 8% uninsured fee, which is close to a file low, would nearly definitely rise.
Reader: “How will Social Safety be affected?”
Trump promised to not change the Social Safety retirement age or cut back profit ranges.
If he retains these guarantees, this system would proceed with out adjustments for the following few years.
Nevertheless, Trump’s total proposed fiscal insurance policies, akin to tax breaks, would speed up Social Safety’s insolvency by roughly three years, from 2034 to 2031, Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget projections present. This may end in massive, across-the-board cuts in beneficiary funds, beginning six years from now. The committee estimates a 33% reduce in advantages in 2035 except the retirement age or taxes are raised or advantages are reduce by a smaller quantity; that’s up from the 23% reduce at present projected.
Reader: “Does Trump assist same-sex marriage?”
As many politicians from each main political events did, Trump modified his stance on same-sex marriage. In 2015, Trump mentioned, “I believe the establishment of marriage ought to be between a person and a lady.” However shortly after he was elected in 2016, he described the difficulty as “settled” by the U.S. Supreme Court.
In 2015, the U.S. Supreme Court ruling in Obergefell vs. Hodges meant that same-sex marriage turned authorized nationwide. Earlier than the 5-4 ruling, about three dozen states allowed same-sex marriage.
Reader: “What affect might (Trump’s) administration have on transgender (well being) care?”
Trump opposes youth entry to gender-affirming care. He mentioned he would ask Congress to move a regulation “prohibiting baby sexual mutilation in all 50 states.” This yr, a number of such congressional payments didn’t develop into regulation. Consultants have instructed PolitiFact it’s inaccurate to characterize gender-affirming surgical procedures as “mutilation.”
The U.S. Supreme Court docket will hear arguments Dec. 4 in United States v. Skrmetti in regards to the legality of a Tennessee invoice that prohibits gender-affirming look after minors. A ruling is predicted in 2025’s first half and will have an effect on the legality of proposed future federal actions.
Elana Redfield, an LGBTQ+ authorized points knowledgeable at UCLA’s Williams Institute, mentioned Trump is more likely to rescind a Biden administration rule that categorizes many denials of gender-affirming care as prohibited discrimination.
Reader: “(How) does Mission 2025 work into (Trump’s) plan?”
Mission 2025 is a 900-page policy document written by conservative coverage consultants, many of whom have ties to Trump’s first administration. Trump has distanced himself from the plan.
A few of Mission 2025’s coverage objectives overlap with Trump’s marketing campaign guarantees, akin to eliminating the federal Training Division, reinstating a ban on transgender folks serving within the navy, developing a southern border wall and reclassifying federal staff to make them easier to fire.
However there are different Mission 2025 concepts that Trump didn’t personally espouse. For instance, Mission 2025 had pages of prompt adjustments — a lot of them obscure — for the Nationwide Climate Service and the Nationwide Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. We rated claims that Mission 2025 desires to eliminate the 2 businesses Half True, and we discovered no such proposals on Trump’s issues page on his marketing campaign web site.
“There may be 0% probability that something in Mission 2025 associated to NOAA or climate will ever be thought-about or carried out,” Ryan Maue wrote on X.. Maue is a meteorologist who briefly served as NOAA’s chief scientist beneath Trump, The Washington Submit reported.
Reader: “What’s going to occur to public faculties?”
Throughout his marketing campaign, Trump adopted the lead of a technology of conservative activists who’ve known as for abolishing the Education Department, however it has by no means occurred. The division supplies about 10% of Ok-12 budgets nationally, enforces legal guidelines that have an effect on funding for particular schooling and low-income college students and oversees the $1.6 trillion federal pupil mortgage program.
If Trump doesn’t remove the division, other options might embody eliminating applications, eradicating profession bureaucrats or proposing tighter budgets.
Michael J. Petrilli, president of the conservative Thomas B. Fordham Institute and a Trump critic, instructed PolitiFact that Trump doubtless could have little direct affect on schooling coverage, on condition that the difficulty isn’t a high precedence for him. Petrilli doesn’t see Congress jettisoning the Training Division, however he mentioned there might be notable oblique results on Ok-12 faculties. For instance, Petrilli mentioned that Trump’s deportation plans elevate questions on whether or not the federal authorities will educate k-12 kids in detention.
Petrilli mentioned, “Who’s going to face up such faculties? Pay for them?”
PolitiFact employees writers Grace Abels Samantha Putterman and Maria Ramirez Uribe contributed to this report.
This truth test was initially published by PolitiFact, which is a part of the Poynter Institute. See the sources for this truth test here.
